The Green Slime Effect! House Price Index Up 3.8% YoY In November As Fed Funds Rates Remain High (Fed Balance Sheet Remains Elevated)

One reason that US home prices remain high (and unaffordable for many) is The Federal Reserve (aka, The Green Slime). Former Fed Chair (and Biden’s Treasury Secretary is no Luciana Paluzzi, the Italian beauty from the James Bond film Thunderball. Yellen is just a far-left economic hack.

Look at the Case-Shiller national home price index compared with The Fed funds target rate.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.8% annual return for November, up from a 3.6% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.9%, recording the same annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.3%, up from a 4.2% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.3% increase in November, followed by Chicago and Washington with annual increases of 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 0.4%.

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 20-City, and 10-City Composite Indices’ upward trends continued to reverse in November, with a -0.1% drop for the national index, while the 20-City Composite saw a -0.1% decline and the 10-City Composite was unchanged.

While the Fed Funds target rate gyrates, The Fed’s balance sheet remains high.

The Federal Reserve’s new logo!

New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December (Despite Mortgage Rates Being Around 7%)

Home, home on the range … Where the realtors and mortgage lenders play.

Sales of new US homes ended 2024 on a high note in December as customers took advantage of incentives from builders, leading to a second straight year of increased purchases.

For the full year, customers purchased 683,000 homes, up about 2.5% from 2023’s total.

Sales of new single-family houses in December 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.6 percent above the revised November rate of 674,000 and is 6.7 percent above the December 2023 estimate of 654,000.

Final Slap In Face From Biden? Annual US Existing Home Sales Lowest Since 1995 (As Mortgage Purchase Applications Collapse Under Biden To 1995 Levels)

1995 is notable for housing and music.

US Existing Home Sales rose for the third straight month in December (longest streak since late 2021), rising 2.2% MoM and up 9.3% YoY – the best annual shift since June 2021. However, despite the last rebound, for all of 2024, sales reached the lowest since 1995, when the US had about 70 million fewer people.

And with the lowest existing home sales since 1995, we have mortgage purchase applications at the lowest level since 1995.

Why? The median price of EHS has exploded under Biden.

Mortgage rates are hovering around 7%, same as around 1995.

My Mortgage Market Was Gone! Mortgage Purchase Applications Rise 7% Since Previous Week, But Refi Applications Fall 3%

As The Pretenders sang, “My City Was Gone.” That song was about Akron, Ohio. But it applies to the US Mortgage Market under Biden/Harris. The question is whether Trump’s deregulation plans can return to its former glory.

Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Pretenders’ lead singer Chrissie Hynde likely would have made a better Federal Reserve Chair and Treasury Secretary than Janet Yellen.

Keep On Printing? Bitcoin UP 265% Under Biden As Fed Increased M2 Money By 12.2%

Will The Fed keep on printing?

Under Joe Biden, The Federal Reserve has jacked-up M2 Money by 12.2%. And with the fear of economic destruction under Biden, Bitcoin is up 265%.

With Trump being sworn in, That’s all, folks!

Simply Unaffordable! The Most Unaffordable And Most Affordable Cities In USA (San Jose/New York City Are Least Affordable, Detroit/Cleveland Are Most Affordable)

Some cities in the USA are simply unaffordable.

The Visual Capitalist calls most unaffordable cities as least affordable. San Jose California and New York City are the two most unaffordable cities in the USA. According to household spending.

On the flip side of the affordability coin is … Detroit Michigan and Cleveland Ohio. Followed closely by Dayton Ohio and El Paso Texas.

Fortunately, I live in Columbus Ohio. the 18th most affordable city in the USA.

Much of the difference amongst cities is land use and construction restraints. And booming/dying local economies.

As a sad reminder about the last four years, Pete Buttigieg will leave his post as Transportation Secretary having spent $7.5 BILLION to build 8 EV charging stations.

Shocker! Under Biden, Home Prices Rose 38.3% While US Population Rose 3.3% (Housing Starts 5+ Unit Multifamily Surged The Most Since 2016)

I remember giving a speech to Federal regulators in Washington DC and discussing the rise of housing rentership in the US. I said the US is veering towards a renter nation.

Today’s housing starts report revealed the biggest MoM jump in multi-family starts since 2016, and the highest SAAR for ‘renter nation’ since Dec 2023.

On a year-over-year basis, 5+ unit (multifamily) starts are are up while 1-unit housing starts are negative.

Unfortunately, the percentage change on a year-over-year basis were negative. -2.6% for 1-unit starts and -27% for 5+ unit (multifamily) starts.

Under Biden, home prices rose a whopping 38.3% while population (if you believe the US Census Bureau) rose 3.3%.

Shocker!

Rate-Cut Likelihood Plummets After Strong Payrolls, +256k Jobs (LA Firemen Forced To Use Handbags To Fight Fires!)

Today’s jobs report was smoking hot! As in 256k jobs added.

With the strong payrolls number, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut is falling.

And with the jobs report, rates are a soarin’!

On a different note, LA Fire Department Supplies Were Sent To Ukraine Over The Past Two Years & They Are Forced To Battle Flames With Women’s Handbags As Buckets Under Gavin Newsom’s Leadership.

At least the smelts are safe in Los Angeles!

Off To A Bad Start! Mortgage Purchase Applications Declined 7% Since Last Week, Down 15% Since Same Week Last Year

Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the New Year’s holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Purchase application activity is up about 2% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 15% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Then we have this diddy from The Epoch Times where a mortgage company allegedly provided a loan to a household that had 33 debts in collection. Hey, I thought under Senator Elizabeth Warren’s brainchild these reckless lending practices were over!

One will be gone on January 20 and I wish the other one would be gone too.

Going Down? US Yield Curve Inverts To Positive After Longest Inversion Since Carter (Predictor Of Recession)

Was Freddie King correct? Is the US economy going down??

The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) has inverted to the positive side after a prolonged NEGATIVE inversion (from July 6, 2022 to Sept 5, 2024) marking the longest period of negative inversion since August 18, 1978 – May 1, 1980. Each negative inversion was followed by a recession.

The UST 10Y-3M yield curve tells a similar tale. The 10Y-3M curve inverts prior to recessions but goes positive just prior to recessions.

Yes, if the yield curve is a good predictor of recession, the US economy is going down.

Freddie King is playing a Gibson ES-355TDC guitar.