Existing Home Sales Print At 4.06 Million Units In September, Commercial Real Estate Still Lower Than Before Covid 19 Outbreak In 2020

September US home sales printed at 4.06 million units.

The US still hasn’t recovered from the Covid 19 outbreak of 2020 and the Fed’s response to Covid.

On the commercial real estate side, CRE prices remain below Covid 19 outbreak levels.

Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers By More Than 500,000 (Largest Gap Ever Recorded)

The US housing market is in a pickle. Home sellers now outnumber buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded.

Drop In Mortgage Rates Fueling Mortgage Demand (Purchase Demand Nearing 2022 Levels)

The September drop in mortgage rates is sparking the biggest boom in refinancings since the pandemic. Mortgage-refinancing applications have surged above the decade average, despite that period including the record-breaking refi boom of 2020-21 when rates fell to all-time lows. Purchase-loan demand has also rebounded to its best for this time of year since 2022, yet remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

Purchase demand (applications) nearing 2022 levels.

While not mortgage-related, gold is soaring!!

Thanks to Bloomberg’s Erica Adelberg for her amazing charts.

Can We EVER Return To Pre-Covid Spending Levels? Both US Debt And Spending UP 56% Since Covid Outbreak In 2020

Can we ask the US House and Senate if they will ever return US Federal government spending to pre-Covid levels? Both US Federal government spending and public debt are up 56% since the Covid outbreak in 2020.

The answer is no. Politicians thrive on Federal spending.

Shutdown! Mortgage Demand Falls 12.7% From Previous Week (Purchase Index Fell 2%, Refi Index Fell 21% As Mortgage Rates Rose)

Shutdown!

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with the view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived.

Yes, the Federal government has shut down.

Zowie! Q3 2025 Real GDP At 3.9% (Driven By Existing Home Sales)

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!!

Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — September 26, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points.

Existing home sales helped drive higher GDP growth.

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!

Funky Cold Jerome! US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Rises/Steepens, Particularly At The 10-year Tenor (As Of Yesterday, The 30-year Mortgage Rate FELL To 6.17%)

It’s Friday and the US Treasury yield curve is rising/steepening at the 10-year tenor.

As of yesterday, the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.17%

Thanks in part to Funky Cold Jerome!

Fed Post-mortem: 10Y Treasury Yield Rises To 4.13%, 30Y Mortgage Rate Falls To 6.5%, US Dollar Falls

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the God of Hellfire! We should always wait a day to digest Fed’s annoucements since they often make little sense. For example, yesterday the 10Y yield fell below 4% after The Fed’s announcement … then promplty rose above 4% again. And today, the US Treasury 10Y yield rose to 4.1276%

The 30Y US mortgage rate fell to 6.493%.

How about the US Dollar? Similar to the US 10Y yield, volatility reigned following Powell’s muddled message.

Powell rarely is straightforward and never puts cash on the barrelhead.

Zowie! Mortgage Applications Increased 29.7% From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Up 12% And 20% From Last Year)

Zowie!

Mortgage applications increased 29.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 12, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 29.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 58 percent from the previous week and was 70 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Indicative of the weakening job market, and in anticipation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates last week dropped to their lowest level since last October, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.39 percent. Homeowners responded swiftly, with refinance application volume jumping almost 60 percent compared to the prior week. Homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey. Almost 60 percent of applications were for refinances, but there was also a pickup in purchase applications.

The Biden/Powell “reign of error” is ending.

Biden/Fed Reign Of Error? US Housing Starts DOWN 6% YoY (Permits DOWN 11.1% YoY)

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.

Housing starts:

Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.

Housing permits?

Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.

Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”