My Kuroda! Bank of Japan Cuts Bond Purchases In Effort To Stop Benchmark Yields From Falling To Record Lows (US Fed Starting QE4?)

My Kuroda!

Haruhiko Kuroda and the Bank of Japan are trying to stop plummeting Japanese yields.

(Bloomberg) — The Bank of Japan intensified its efforts to stop benchmark yields from falling to record lows by cutting bond purchases on Friday and then paving the way to reduce them further in the coming month.

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The central bank followed up on a 50-billion yen ($470 million) reduction in purchases of five-to-10 year debt this morning with a move to lower the buying range for this key maturity zone at its operations in September.

Speculation the BOJ would step in to halt the slide in yields was running highas the global debt rally caused the 10-year yield to drop further out of the central bank’s target range. Having come within one basis point of an all-time low of minus 0.3% on Thursday, the yield rose following BOJ’s actions on Friday, with that on similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries also moving higher.

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On the other side of the Pacific Ocean, the US Federal Reserve has reversed course on letting their Treasury Notes and Bonds mature (unwind) and are letting their System Open Market Account rise for the second week in a row. Is this the start of QE4??

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Kuroda and the Bank of Japan see no end in sight for plunging interest rates.

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Mortgage Purchase Applications Back To 1998 Levels As Mortgage Refi Applications Slow A Bit From Refi Wave

If you have recently applied for a mortgage refinancing given plunging mortgage rates, you may have noticed a delay in the underwriting. Why? US lenders are in the midst of a “refi wave” and some lenders are swamped with work, particularly underwriters.

Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 23, 2019.

The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 167 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

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The 30 year mortgage rate has been generally falling since November 2018 as European (Brexit) and Asian (China trade) pressures have increased. As a consequence, we have seen a “refi wave” in 2019.

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Mortgage purchase applications have risen gradually since 2014, but litigation against lenders and rules created under the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) resulted in mortgage purchase applications at 1998 levels.

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A refi wave can feel like surfing at Nazare in Portugal.

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US Trade Weighted Broad Dollar Index Hits All-time High!

The US Trade Weighted Broad Dollar Index just hit an all-time high!

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Meanwhile, President Trump keeps needling Powell and The Fed to lower interest rates, but Trump can’t seem to make Powell his.

Meanwhile. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is helping to push down the 2-year Treasury yield.

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The 10Y-3M Treasury curve slope fell to -43 basis point on the China/Fed (Ched?) fistfight.

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And the Treasury/Swap curves remain … Ched’d?

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Meanwhile, Powell and Fed Fans are in Jackson Hole Wyoming doing “Talk, talk.”

Shakin’ All Over! German Yield Curve Completely Negative Yield As Germany Issues €869M Zero-coupon Bonds At -0.11% (Tried To Sell €2B)

Things are getting crazy in Europe, particularly in Germany and Denmark,

As Brexit approaches, Germany is desperately trying to save their economy (or at least their banking system) by borrowing at negative rates for 30-years.

The German government sold 869 million euros of 30-year bonds with a negative yield, for the first time ever, adding to the world’s growing $15 trillion in existing negative yielding debt.

The bund, set to mature in 2050, has a zero coupon, meaning it pays no interest. Germany offered 2 billion euros worth of 30-year bunds, and investors were willing to buy less than half of it, with a yield of minus 0.11%.

Here are the German sovereign yield curve (blue) and the Danish sovereign curve (green).

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Of course, the US Treasury curve has the same “bucket” shape as Germany and Denmark (as well as numerous other nations).

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The US Treasury 10Y-3M curve slope is now -40 BPS.

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While not totally submerged, Sweden, France and the UK all have the bucket shape.

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Just so we understand, it’s not just Europe that is slowing. China is slowing too (and before the tariff war).

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Sovereign yield curves are Shakin’ all over.

Beyond The Sea! Boston Fed’s Rosengren’s Plea To Not Cut Rates While Europe Slows (17 European Nations Have Negative 2Y Yields, 13 European Nations Have Negative 10Y Yields)

What a difference 10+ years make in financial markets.

Here is the US Treasury yield curve at the height of the housing bubble (2005) compared to today. Back on July 1, 2005, the yield curve was upward sloping whereas today the curve is inverted at tenors of 5 years or less, then upward sloping.

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At the ten year maturity, both Canada and the US are below 2% in terms of yield (Venezuela is at a whopping 55%!). Chile, in USD, is just about 2%.

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Beyond the sea (Atlantic), there are 13 nations will negative 10-year sovereign yields. Plus the European Financial Stability Facility is at -0.357%.

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At the two-year maturity, Europe has 17 nations with negative yields. And tanking.

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The Boston Fed’s Rosengren is arguing against further rate cuts from an effective Fed Funds rate of 2.1250% while the European Central Bank (ECB) target rate is … -0.40%. That is quite a spread!

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(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren continued to push back against further interest-rate cuts by the central bank, arguing he’s not convinced that slowing trade and global growth will significantly dent the U.S. economy.

Meantime, President Donald Trump urged the Fed to cut by a full percentage point to aid U.S. and global growth while complaining the “dollar is so strong that it is sadly hurting other parts of the world”

The German government is getting ready to act to shore up Europe’s largest economy, preparing fiscal stimulus measures that could be triggered by a deep recession, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.

Rosengren’s point is that the US economy is still growing with low unemployment while Europe is grinding to a halt. Germany is at 0.40% YoY, Italy is at 0% YoY and France is at 1.30%. The US is at 2.3% YoY. This is, in part, Rosengren’s point.

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While the US economy is humming along at 2.3% YoY growth, Treasury is considering issuing 50- and 100-year bonds. Both will have huge duration and convexity risk.

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So, economic slowdowns beyond the (Atlantic) sea may spill over to the US.

President Trump needs a Dream Lover to enact his rate cuts. Otherwise, markets will be splishy-splashy.

 

 

Come Dancing? US Treasury Considering Issuing 50- or 100-year Bonds As 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield Hits All-time Low (Negative Yielding Debt Growth Sends Gold Skyrocketing – 14 European Countries Have Negative 10-year Yields)

As the US House of Representatives (that controls the purse strings of the Federal government) escalates spending, the US Treasury has to issue more debt. In fact, the US has now exceeded the 100% debt to GDP that was first exceeded back in 2012 in the wake of the financial crisis.

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And with the US Treasury 30-year yield hitting all-time lows,

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Treasury is exploring longer-term maturities to refinance its debt and issue additional debt to cover the Federal budget deficit.

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(Bloomberg) — With interest rates on 30-year U.S. debt hitting all-time lows this week, the US government is once again considering whether to start borrowing for even longer.

The U.S. Treasury Department said Friday that it wants to know what investors think about the government potentially issuing 50-year or 100-year bonds, going way beyond the current three-decade maximum.

Well, US dollar swaps go out to 50 years, so 50-year Treasuries are not that much of a leap.  But can we try 40 years first??

But given the unusual shape of the Treasury and Swap curves (both inverted in the short-term), is this Fed-caused disturbance in the yield curve or a signal of recession in the coming 5 years.

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And as global negative yielding debt explodes, so does gold prices.

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Its the same all over the world in terms of negative yields.

In fact, 14 European nations have negative 10-year yields.

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How Low Can They Go? Denmark’s Jyske Bank Introduces Ten-year, Fixed-rate Loan At -0.5% (Entire Danish Sovereign Curve Is Negative)

Denmark’s Jyske Bank has introduced a 10-year, fixed-rate loan at … -0.5%. As have other Danish lenders Realkredit Danmark, Totalkredit and Nordea Kredit.

Of course, the entire Danish sovereign yield curve is negative and their 10-year sovereign rate is -0.53%., essentially the same as the Jyske Bank 10-year loan rate.

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While this seems insane, Jyske Bank has only lost 50% since 2007 compared with Deutsche Bank that has lost considerably more since 2007.

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Not to mention that the Danish Central Bank has a bank rate of … -0.7%.

How low can they go?

An example of Danish housing imitating North Sea icebergs waiting for the next Titanic.

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