Existing homesales actually surprised to the upside, rising 1.7% MoM in February. Perhaps even more notably, January’s 8.4% MoM plunge was revised up to a slightly less crazy 5.9% MoM drop.
With the beat and upward revision, existing home sales were down just 1.45% YoY but SAAR topped 4mm (4.09mm) once again.
On the bright side, with mortgage rates at their lowest since 2022, existing home sales look set to continue to improve (unless Trump’s war triggers more panic in rates).
The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 0.3% from a year earlier — one of the smallest advances since the pandemic housing frenzy — to $398,000 last month.
The inventory of previously owned homes increased 4.9% from a year ago to 1.29 million — the most for any February since 2020.
Mortgage rates? Up yesterday, but near lowest since 2023.
Delistings soared in 2025 after sellers began to outnumber buyers, and decided to take their homes off the market to take another bite at the apple this spring. Overall delistings hit a record high of 112,788 in December, while relistings this year represented 3.6% of all homes on the market.
Supply gains have been concentrated in the South and West, particularly among homes priced under $500,000. While the Northeast and Midwest have seen some growth, they are still lagging behind the other regions.
As of February, active listings climbed by 7.9 percent year over year, reaching 914,860 homes across the nation for sale. A little more than 7 percent of those listings resulted in contract cancellations—down slightly from the same time in 2025.
An analysis of the country’s 50 largest markets showed sharp increases in inventory in Seattle, with a 38.5 percent hike, as well as Louisville, Kentucky, 27.3 percent higher, and San Jose, with nearly 25 percent more homes on the market.
On the other side, Hartford, Connecticut, experienced the deepest drop in inventory at over 82 percent, as well as Providence, Rhode Island, at 61.1 percent.
Overall, homes spent a median of 70 days on the market in February, four days longer than a year earlier.
We are seeing the aftermath of the Federal government’s fiscal response to the Covid outbreak of 2020. Home prices exploded following The Federal government’s spending spree. The end result? US housing is simply unaffordable for millions of households.
Not really surprising given the soaring home prices following the Covid Federal spending spree.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain (YoY) for December 2025, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month. Average hourly earnings now at 3.73% YoY, higher than home price growth.
Home price growth exploded following The Federal governments’ Covid-related spending splurge.
Geographic divergence widened sharply: Chicago and New York led all markets with gains above 5%, while Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami posted the steepest declines among markets that finished the year in negative territory.
Inflation cooled significantly under Trump, but The Fed keeps printing M2!
…but ended the year at 745k – the highest SAAR since 2021…
“New” home sales have notably decoupled from “used” home sales in the last few years as homebuilders incentivize buyers (reducing margins) and lower prices (reducing revenues)…
Lower mortgage rates support modest further improvements in sales…
Unfortunately, US pending home sales have collapsed to the lowest level since at least 2001. Nothing has been the same since Biden/Harris administration.
Mortgage rates are still too high by historic standards.
Speaking of Democrats running the economy, New York’s mayor Zoran Mandami (the Ugandan Communist) is seeking to raise property taxes to 9.5% which will hit EVERY New Yorker, not just the billionaires he allegedly wants to tax.
The analysts were correct on the direction but wrong on the scale as existing home sales plunged 8.4% MoM in January from a downwardly revised +4.4% MoM in December. That is the biggest MoM drop since February 2022.
While some suggested this could be impacted by the Winter Storms, this is based on contracts signed in November/December… and the biggest decline was in The West (which had zero weather impact)
Nevertheless, realtors gonna realtor:
“The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
That MoM plunge pulled the total SAAR down near 15 year lows…
Without an extended period of improved affordability, the recovery in the housing market is likely to be prolonged.
The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 0.9% from a year earlier to $396,800 last month.
First-time buyers represented 31% of buyers of existing homes in January, up slightly from 29% in the prior month and higher than a year ago.
The inventory of previously owned homes increased 3.4% in January from a year ago to 1.22 million.
A pickup in supply through 2025 has helped to tame price growth, though Yun said on a call with reporters that listings need to increase much more to help improve sales.
On the bright side, it appears mortgage applications are rebounding as the year started with lower rates…
Source: Bloomberg
Arguably, existing home sales have much further to go to the upside as the lagged mortgage rate has continued to decline… so what triggered this collapse?
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, circling back to where we started, NAR expects home sales to rise a stunning 14% this year, higher than most other forecasts but a figure that NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said he feels “confident” in. That assumes more inventory will come on the market, mortgage rates will hover around 6% and the Fed will cut interest rates another two times, compared to policymakers’ median projection for one.
The manufacturing sector shed -8,000 jobs in January, according to the ADP private employment report.
This marks the 32nd consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since data began in 2010.
In 2024 and 2025, manufacturing employment fell -154,000 and -177,000, respectively.
Since the 2022 peak, -403,000 jobs have been lost, bringing total manufacturing employment down to 12.483 million, the lowest since November 2021.
The sector has now lost HALF the number of jobs wiped out during the 2020 pandemic.
The US manufacturing sector is in recession.
It is difficult to undo the damage to the economy done by Biden and Chuck Schumer with their insane spending and open borders. Like pushing up housing prices to obscene levels under Clueless Joe.
US Manufacturing Sector Shed -8k Jobs on January (Difficult To Undo Damage Done By Biden and Schumer Including Negative Home Equity).
US layoffs are skyrocketing, largely due to the cost of providing Obamacare to employees. Easier to replace full-time workers with part-time and no healthcare benefits.
Sorry Bad Bunny, Your open border fantasies are a nightmare for law and order.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
You must be logged in to post a comment.