Good News! Purchase Mortgage Applications Rose 17 Percent Since Same Week Last Year (Mortgage Refis Surge 23 Percent From Previous Week)

The Fed didn’t try, but mortgage rates fell and mortgage applications rose 10.9% week-over-week.

Mortgage applications increased 10.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 8, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 10.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 23 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.67 percent last week, which spurred the strongest week for refinance activity since April. Borrowers responded favorably, as refinance applications increased 23 percent, driven mostly by conventional and VA applications. Refinances accounted for 46.5 percent of applications and as seen in other recent refinance bursts, the average loan size grew significantly to $366,400. Borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be more sensitive to rate movements.

Good News! Business Applications Booming As Inflation Remains Calm (No Negative Impacts From Tariffs)

Let the good times roll! Booming business applications under Trump and calm inflation.

The latest inflation report continues to show no negative impact from tariffs. Core goods prices were up 0.2% in July. They are up just 1.1% over the past 12 months and are actually up a lesser 0.8% since President Trump began phasing in tariffs.

Business applications are booming under Trump’s economy.

While consumer prices are calm (2.7% YoY).

Shelter inflation is higher than the average price increase (3.7% YoY).

What The Fed Can’t Fix! Percentage Of 30-Year-Olds Both Married and Homeowners Lowest Since 1950 (Mortgage Rates Near Highest Since 2006)

The US housing market is finally slowing down in terms of price growth. But this is after 3 Federal government-fueled house price bubbles.

In addition to record-high housing prices, mortgage rates are higher than levels going back to 2006.

Throw in the “woke” movement, and we have a problem. The percentage of 30-year-olds who are both married and homeowners has plummeted to the lowest level since 1950.

Simply lowering interest rates won’t fix this problem. Much of the housing “crisis” is due to local and state level politicians and their restrictive housing policies. Like LA Mayor Karen “Venceremos Brigade” Bass allocating the burnt-down Pacific Palisades area on the Pacific Ocean to “affordable housing.”

The US Housing Market Is In A Price Bubble (Again)

Yes, the US housing market is in a price bubble. If we compared home price growth with median earnings.

The financial crisis was spawned by a home price bubble where home price growth was faster than median earnings growth (see Bubble 1). After home price growth cooled in 2007-2009, the cycle started again (Bubble 2). But the current bubble (Bubble 3) is related to the Covid outbreak and massive spending binge by Congress (and The Fed). Notice that median earnings dropped (green line) post Covid.

But while we have normalized home price growth and median earnings, the LEVELS are still unaffordable for millions of households.

Poor Bill Pulte (FHFA Director). He has to work with an uncooperative Fed under Foul Powell, and local politivcians like Greasy Gavin Newsom (Democrat Gov of California), JB Pritzker (Democrat Gov on Illinois), Kathy Hocul (Democrat Gov of New York), and the assorted lunatic Mayors like Karen Bass (D, Mayor Los Angeles), Zohran Kwame Mamdani (D, presumptive Mayor New York City), etc.

Foul Powell! Mortgage Applications Decreased 3.8 Percent Week-over-week

Foul Powell on the prowl!

Mortgage applications decreased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 25, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Between Powell keeping rates high and Biden’s grossly incompetent management, the mortgage market remains in the doldrums.

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Falls For 3rd Straight Month In May -0.3% MoM (Despite Fed Money Printing)

US home prices fell for the 3rd straight month In May. The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.29% (-3.5% annual rate).

Despite continued money printing by The Fed.

Gov’t Gone Wild! First-time Home Buyers At Lowest Level Since 2000 As Federal Government Spends Economy Into Oblivion (As Fed Keeps Rates High, M2 Money Goes Parabolic)

kkk

The Fed Lost Another $653 Million Last Week (Bring Total Realized Losses To More Than $236 Billion Since Sept ’22)

Nobody pisses away money like Washington DC.

The Fed lost another $653 million last week, bringing total realized losses to more than $236 billion since Sep ’22.

Nothing has been the same since the financial crisis and Bernanke’s overreaction.

California Governor “Greasy Gavin” Newsom wants to be President of the USA. He will fit right in with the other spendthrifts in Washington DC.

Simply Unaffordable! US House Prices At All-time High Relative To Inflation (At Least Wage Growth Is Higher Than Home Price Growth Under Trump)

Housing in the USA is simply unaffordable!

House prices have exploded since Covid, primarily due to massive Federal spending.

In terms of YoY growth, average hourly earning are exceeding home price growth.

Affordable housing is difficult to achieve at the national level since local politicians control local economies badly. Think LA Mayor Karen Bass who is taking Pacific Palisades which recently burned down and wants to build multifamily housing for low income households. This reminds me of the folly in Long Branch New Jersey where they built low income housing on the beach front. It failed, of course.

Doctor, doctor, we’ve got a bad casing of unaffordable housing.

Here is a picture of US affordable housing policy.

CPI: No Inflation In June, But Shelter Prices Up 3.8% YoY (Foul Powell On The Prowl)

US prices rose 0.3% MoM in June according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS). And on a YoY basis, inflation rose 2.7% while core inflation rose 2.9%.