Category: Freddie Mac

ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, 45,000 Job Losses (Rate Cuts Around The Corner?)

The Federal government is still shut down, so we have to rely on ADP for jobs numbers.

The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”

Added together that is 45,000 job losses in the month (not including government workers), which would be the largest monthly drop in jobs since March 2023.

A sustained increase in layoffs would be particularly concerning now because the hiring rate is low and it is harder than usual for unemployed workers to find jobs.

It is likely that The Fed will cut rates to compensate. Rate cuts around the corner!

Stagnation Nation! U.S. Housing Market Hits 30-Year Low in Activity (High Home Prices And High Mortgage Rates*)

Redfin’s Housing Turnover Report, Q1–Q3 2025

Just 2.8 homes out of every 1,000 changed owners in the first nine months of 2025—the lowest turnover rate in at least three decades. This marks a 38% plunge from the 2021 frenzy, when 44 per 1,000 homes sold, and is 44% below the pre-pandemic 2019 pace of 40 per 1,000.

Why the freeze? – Rate lock-in: Over 70% of homeowners are sitting on sub-5% mortgages and are reluctant to trade them for today’s rates exceeding 6%.

Sticker shock: Record prices combined with high borrowing costs have left many potential buyers on the sidelines. The result is a housing market that remains stagnant.

*Home prices are relatively high as are mortgage rates.

Someone will undoubtedly write me to look at Singapore. Yes, I know. Been there, done that. Or London.

In the US, the lowest turnover rates are in Democrat strongholds New York and California.

Mortgage Demand Decreased 1.9 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 2 Percent, Refinance Index Decreased 3 Percent)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 31, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 151 percent higher than the same week one year ago. 

Mortgage originations are still strong for the 760+ bucket.

Let’s see how California’s Prop 50 (Gavin Newsom’s attempt to give Democrats a majority in the US House of Representatives) works?

New Week Starts! 10Y Treasury Yield At 4.112%, Down From 4.397% 1 Year Ago (Yield Curve Steepening)

A new week starts! And the all-important 10-year Treasury yields checks in at 4.112%, down from 4.397% one year ago.

Let’s see if Senate Democrats agree to open the Federal government.

US Mortgage Demand Rose 7.1% With Mortgage Rates Declining (Purchase Demand Rose 4% While Refi Demand Rose 9% From Preceding Week)

It came out of The Fed.

Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.30 percent from 6.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Yesterday, The Fed lowered their target rate by 25 basis points. And the 30-year conforming rate index fell by 0.037 basis points to 6.155%.

On the government shutdown side, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell at The Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC.

Existing Home Sales Print At 4.06 Million Units In September, Commercial Real Estate Still Lower Than Before Covid 19 Outbreak In 2020

September US home sales printed at 4.06 million units.

The US still hasn’t recovered from the Covid 19 outbreak of 2020 and the Fed’s response to Covid.

On the commercial real estate side, CRE prices remain below Covid 19 outbreak levels.

Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers By More Than 500,000 (Largest Gap Ever Recorded)

The US housing market is in a pickle. Home sellers now outnumber buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded.

Drop In Mortgage Rates Fueling Mortgage Demand (Purchase Demand Nearing 2022 Levels)

The September drop in mortgage rates is sparking the biggest boom in refinancings since the pandemic. Mortgage-refinancing applications have surged above the decade average, despite that period including the record-breaking refi boom of 2020-21 when rates fell to all-time lows. Purchase-loan demand has also rebounded to its best for this time of year since 2022, yet remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

Purchase demand (applications) nearing 2022 levels.

While not mortgage-related, gold is soaring!!

Thanks to Bloomberg’s Erica Adelberg for her amazing charts.

Can We EVER Return To Pre-Covid Spending Levels? Both US Debt And Spending UP 56% Since Covid Outbreak In 2020

Can we ask the US House and Senate if they will ever return US Federal government spending to pre-Covid levels? Both US Federal government spending and public debt are up 56% since the Covid outbreak in 2020.

The answer is no. Politicians thrive on Federal spending.