Mortgage Demand Decreased 4.7 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 1 Percent)

Feelin’ stronger for the most part.

Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications.

Mortgage demand dwindled since Covid and Biden/Powell and hasn’t recovered.

Revelio Labs Found 60.1 US Jobs Added In September (Q3 GDP At 3.8%)

Due to the ongoing government shutdown – now in its third day – the BLS did not release the September jobs report this morning forcing traders and the Fed to “fly blind.” Or blinder than usual. And with ADP reporting earlier this week that some 32,000 jobs had been lost in September, putting markets and economists on edge and the US economy on the verge of a labor recession, the lack of data could not have come at a worse time. Luckily, private sector alternatives to the BLS do exist and, in many cases, are far more accurate and certainly less politicized.

The latest Revelio Labs number (+60.1k) is very notable as it suggests that the labor picture is nowhere near as bad as ADP indicated. In fact, as shown in the chart below, in September the Revelio Labs data set showed the best monthly increase in jobs in 2025!

The Federal Reserve will do what they want and will likely ignore the good report from Revelio. Besides, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is at 3.8% for Q3.

Here is the GDP breakdown.

Here Comes The Fed? ADP Payrolls Crash To -32,000, Worst Since March 2023

This should get The Fed to cut rates! ADP reported that in September, the US private sector shed 32,000 jobs, the worst print since March 2023.

Here is the breakdown.

Shutdown! Mortgage Demand Falls 12.7% From Previous Week (Purchase Index Fell 2%, Refi Index Fell 21% As Mortgage Rates Rose)

Shutdown!

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with the view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived.

Yes, the Federal government has shut down.

Pending Home Sales In August Surge 4% YoY (Lower Rates Helping, Rates Peaked At 18.63% In 1981)

August data for the US housing market has been ‘mixed’ to say the least with a surge in new home sales (thanks to a massive rise in incentives from homebuilders) and a small decline (near multi-year lows), leaving this morning’s pending home sales data as the tie-breaker (with expectations of an ‘unch’ shift MoM).

It appears the drop in mortgage rates is driving some purchase activity as pending home sales soared 4.0% MoM in August – the most since March – dragging sales up 0.5% YoY.

Mortgage rates are falling, helping existing home sales. Note that the 30-year mortgage rate peaked at 18.63% in 1981.

Zowie! Q3 2025 Real GDP At 3.9% (Driven By Existing Home Sales)

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!!

Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — September 26, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points.

Existing home sales helped drive higher GDP growth.

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!

Buyers’ Jubilee? 35.2% More Home Sellers Than Buyers In U.S. Housing Market In August

August represents a massive switch from 3 years ago when there were nearly 40% more home buyers and sellers in the US housing market. There are now 35.2% MORE home sellers than buyers!

Fed Post-mortem: 10Y Treasury Yield Rises To 4.13%, 30Y Mortgage Rate Falls To 6.5%, US Dollar Falls

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the God of Hellfire! We should always wait a day to digest Fed’s annoucements since they often make little sense. For example, yesterday the 10Y yield fell below 4% after The Fed’s announcement … then promplty rose above 4% again. And today, the US Treasury 10Y yield rose to 4.1276%

The 30Y US mortgage rate fell to 6.493%.

How about the US Dollar? Similar to the US 10Y yield, volatility reigned following Powell’s muddled message.

Powell rarely is straightforward and never puts cash on the barrelhead.

Zowie! Mortgage Applications Increased 29.7% From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Up 12% And 20% From Last Year)

Zowie!

Mortgage applications increased 29.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 12, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 29.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 58 percent from the previous week and was 70 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Indicative of the weakening job market, and in anticipation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates last week dropped to their lowest level since last October, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.39 percent. Homeowners responded swiftly, with refinance application volume jumping almost 60 percent compared to the prior week. Homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey. Almost 60 percent of applications were for refinances, but there was also a pickup in purchase applications.

The Biden/Powell “reign of error” is ending.

Biden/Fed Reign Of Error? US Housing Starts DOWN 6% YoY (Permits DOWN 11.1% YoY)

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.

Housing starts:

Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.

Housing permits?

Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.

Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”