Category: Gold

𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝟳.𝟭%, Office Delinquencies Soar To 11.8% (CMBS Excess Returns Are Dwindling)

𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝟳.𝟭%.🚨

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Hits Record 11.8%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Meltdown. (Wolfstreet)

CMBS excess returns are dwindling.

How will New York City commercial real estate returns perform if Madami wins the NYC Mayoral election?

New Week Starts! 10Y Treasury Yield At 4.112%, Down From 4.397% 1 Year Ago (Yield Curve Steepening)

A new week starts! And the all-important 10-year Treasury yields checks in at 4.112%, down from 4.397% one year ago.

Let’s see if Senate Democrats agree to open the Federal government.

Fed’s QT Surprise! Powell Announced That Maturing Mortgage-backed Securities (MBSs) Will Be Reinvested Into Short-term Treasury Bills

Like tuna surprise (bleech!!), Fed Chair Powell announced a move towards reinvesting maturing MBS into ST Treasury bill decreasing the duration of The Fed’s balance sheet.

Fed’s QT Surprise: Powell announced that maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) will be reinvested into short-term Treasury bills instead of longer-duration Treasuries, signaling a shift toward a shorter-duration balance sheet.
🧭 Strategic Implications: This move distances the Fed from potential “yield curve control” strategies and aligns with pre-2008 norms, where the average maturity was under 3 years—suggesting a long-term pivot in portfolio structure.
💰 Market Impact: The decision, coupled with rising Treasury yields and upcoming refunding announcements, intensifies pressure on the 10-year yield, especially as the Treasury seeks to fund a $38 trillion debt load with more short-term instruments.

I just hope the Nittany Kittens (Penn State) don’t surprise Ohio State in today’s football game!

US Mortgage Demand Rose 7.1% With Mortgage Rates Declining (Purchase Demand Rose 4% While Refi Demand Rose 9% From Preceding Week)

It came out of The Fed.

Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.30 percent from 6.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Yesterday, The Fed lowered their target rate by 25 basis points. And the 30-year conforming rate index fell by 0.037 basis points to 6.155%.

On the government shutdown side, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell at The Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC.

Consumer Prices Rise 3% YoY, Shelter Rises 3.6% YoY (US Treasury Yield Curve Remains Upward Sloping 3Y-30Y)

Good news! Consumer prices rose only 3% YoY. Lower than the growth in M2 Money of 4.66% YoY and Federal government spending of 7.8% YoY.

While consumer prices rose only 3% YoY, housing (shelter) rose 3.65 YoY.

The US Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from 2Y-30Y.

Federal Government Continues To Spend Like Drunken Sailors In Port Despite Schumer Shutdown (Federal Debt Breaches $38 Trillion, Budget Deficit Breaches $7 Trillion)

Of course, CPI data release has been delayed thanks to the US Federal government shutdown (aka, the Schumer Shutdown). But never fear, the Federal government is continuing to spending like the proverbial drunken sailors in port. The Federal debt just breached the $38 trillion mark.

And the Federal budget deficit just breached the $7 trillion mark. Why? Too much Federal spending! The Federal government COULD raises taxes, but that would strangle the economy. But politicians in DC are terrified of not being re-elected, so they are terrified of cutting spending.

What about The Federal Reserve? M2 Money printed by The Fed now exceeds $22 trillion and The Fed’s balance sheet is now around $6.6 trillion. Can The Fed print our way out of the debt crisis? Think of the Weimar Republic with its hyperinflation due to excessive money printing.

The only way out is to drastically cut Federal spending. Or we could rename the US Dollar as the Reichsmark.

Any wonder why gold and silver prices are through the roof?

Existing Home Sales Print At 4.06 Million Units In September, Commercial Real Estate Still Lower Than Before Covid 19 Outbreak In 2020

September US home sales printed at 4.06 million units.

The US still hasn’t recovered from the Covid 19 outbreak of 2020 and the Fed’s response to Covid.

On the commercial real estate side, CRE prices remain below Covid 19 outbreak levels.

Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers By More Than 500,000 (Largest Gap Ever Recorded)

The US housing market is in a pickle. Home sellers now outnumber buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded.