Funky Cold Jerome! US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Rises/Steepens, Particularly At The 10-year Tenor (As Of Yesterday, The 30-year Mortgage Rate FELL To 6.17%)

It’s Friday and the US Treasury yield curve is rising/steepening at the 10-year tenor.

As of yesterday, the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.17%

Fed Post-mortem: 10Y Treasury Yield Rises To 4.13%, 30Y Mortgage Rate Falls To 6.5%, US Dollar Falls

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the God of Hellfire! We should always wait a day to digest Fed’s annoucements since they often make little sense. For example, yesterday the 10Y yield fell below 4% after The Fed’s announcement … then promplty rose above 4% again. And today, the US Treasury 10Y yield rose to 4.1276%

The 30Y US mortgage rate fell to 6.493%.

How about the US Dollar? Similar to the US 10Y yield, volatility reigned following Powell’s muddled message.

Powell rarely is straightforward and never puts cash on the barrelhead.

Biden/Fed Reign Of Error? US Housing Starts DOWN 6% YoY (Permits DOWN 11.1% YoY)

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.

Housing starts:

Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.

Housing permits?

Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.

Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”

House Of The Dying Dollar? US Purchasing Power Of Dollar Fell -18% Under Biden/Powell, But Has Only Fallen -2.5% Under Trump II (Dollar Down -97% Since Fed Estabishment In 1913)

Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913. It is the House of the Dying Dollar.

Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913.

Of course, Trump II is only 9 months old and Biden had 4 long years to destroy the dollar.

US Housing Is Simply Unaffordable! 30y Mortgage Rate UP 125.8% Since Biden Took Control In 2021 (Mortgage Originations Then Fell By 74% While Home Prices Rose )

US housing is simply unaffordable!

Mortgage rates remain elevated since the Biden Administration took control in 2021. Although under Trump, the rise in the 30-year mortgage rate has slowed. But the 30-year mortgage rate is up 126% since the beginning of 2021 and the “Joe The Boss” Biden administration.

Mortgage originations at large banks declined a whopping 74% under “Joe The Boss” Biden.

Between mortgage rates rising by 126% and house prices rising by 41.5% under “Joe The Boss” Biden.

US housing is simply unaffordable.

Guiseppe “Joe The Boss” Biden.

Actually, this is a photo of Guiseppe “Joe The Boss” Masseria. A New York crime boss assassinated by Lucky Luciano in 1931.

US Inflation Headline CPI Rose 0.4% MoM, 2.9% YoY In August (Shelter UP 3.6% YoY)

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY in August.

Shelter (housing) is up 3.6% YoY. Gimme (expensive) shelter!

Of course, Federal government spending is the source of inflation. Notice the lag between Covid spending and resulting inflation.

So much for Trump Tariffs causing runaway inflation.

Prayers for Charlie Kirk and his family. I hope they catch the sick SOB that assassinated Charlie.

Mortgage Demand Rises 9.2% In Recent Week (But Purchase Demand Fell 6%)

Stay with the mortgage market! It is improving under Trump after a disastrous run under Biden.

But for last week, mortgage applications increased 9.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 34 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The holiday-adjusted refinance index had its strongest week in a year and the average loan size for refinances also increased significantly, since borrowers with large loans are more sensitive to bigger rate moves. Refinance applications accounted for almost 49 percent of all applications last week.
…
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.49 percent from 6.64 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

BIGGEST Negative Payroll Revision On Record! March 2025 Revised Downward By 911k Jobs (Worse Than Last Biden Revision Of Over 600k Jobs)

Yes, the jobs revision for March 2025 is down by 911k jobs topping the last Biden revision of over 600k.

The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000 (-0.6 percent), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, CES employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). These counts are derived primarily from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file with state workforce agencies.

Here is the breakdown:

Wow. Every month during Biden’s last year in his reign of error was a negative revision.

Biden, the inept bozo.

Mortgage Applications Decline 1.2 Percent From Previous Week (Purchase Index Decreased 6 Percent, Refinance Index Increased 1 Percent)

Bad, bad Jerome Powell.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 29, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to its lowest level since April to 6.64 percent. However, that was not enough to spark more application activity. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.64 percent from 6.69 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

But don’t get your hopes up about The Fed saving the housing market.

Q3 GDP Forecasts Soars To 3.5% (Equipment And Exports Lead The Way! Residential Investment Down -8.2)

So much for the defeatist mentality in the main stream media, Congress and economists!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.2 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 6.1 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.36 percentage points to 0.59 percentage points.