Mortgage Demand Rises 9.2% In Recent Week (But Purchase Demand Fell 6%)

Stay with the mortgage market! It is improving under Trump after a disastrous run under Biden.

But for last week, mortgage applications increased 9.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 34 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The holiday-adjusted refinance index had its strongest week in a year and the average loan size for refinances also increased significantly, since borrowers with large loans are more sensitive to bigger rate moves. Refinance applications accounted for almost 49 percent of all applications last week.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.49 percent from 6.64 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

BIGGEST Negative Payroll Revision On Record! March 2025 Revised Downward By 911k Jobs (Worse Than Last Biden Revision Of Over 600k Jobs)

Yes, the jobs revision for March 2025 is down by 911k jobs topping the last Biden revision of over 600k.

The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000 (-0.6 percent), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, CES employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). These counts are derived primarily from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file with state workforce agencies.

Here is the breakdown:

Wow. Every month during Biden’s last year in his reign of error was a negative revision.

Biden, the inept bozo.

Mortgage Applications Decline 1.2 Percent From Previous Week (Purchase Index Decreased 6 Percent, Refinance Index Increased 1 Percent)

Bad, bad Jerome Powell.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 29, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to its lowest level since April to 6.64 percent. However, that was not enough to spark more application activity. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.64 percent from 6.69 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

But don’t get your hopes up about The Fed saving the housing market.

Q3 GDP Forecasts Soars To 3.5% (Equipment And Exports Lead The Way! Residential Investment Down -8.2)

So much for the defeatist mentality in the main stream media, Congress and economists!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.2 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 6.1 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.36 percentage points to 0.59 percentage points.

The breakdown? Equipment growth at 11.7 was the standout along with exports at 7.9%.

Residential investment is down -8.2. This isn’t helping!

Time to pop a cheap beer!

US Home Prices Drop -0.25% MoM In June (New York And Chicago Biggest Gainers In Price, San Francisco And Tampa Biggest Losers)

Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities fell for the 4th straight month in June (the latest data available from S&P CoreLogic’s Case-Shiller data released this morning).

The -0.25% MoM drop was larger than expected and dragged the YoY price growth down to +2.15% – the weakest since July 2023.

Meanwhile The Federal Reserve keeps on printing money, helping to drive up home prices.

,Metro level? New York and Chicago lead, with Phoenix, Miami, Denver, San Diego, Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa all experiencing price declines.

On a side note, Chicago is even more unaffordable than last year. So much for Mayor Brandon Johnson saying there would be no crime if everyone could afford housing (one of the stupidest comments I have ever heard).

The stupidity is strong with this one!

New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July (Median Price Declines -5.9% YoY Despite Fed Money Printing)

What do you do with The Federal Reserve who keep printing money?

According to the US Census Bureau, New Home Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 0.6 percent (±15.5 percent)* below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent (±14.0 percent)* below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.

Median and Average Sales Price

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2025 was $403,800. This is 0.8 percent (±5.9 percent)* below the June 2025 price of $407,200, and is 5.9 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the July 2024 price of $429,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in July 2025 was $487,300. This is 3.6 percent (±8.0 percent)* below the June 2025 price of $505,300, and is 5.0 percent (±8.6 percent)* below the July 2024 price of $513,200.

Here is a chart of median sales price of new homes against Fed money printing (M2).

Whip It! Recession Warning May Prompt The Fed Into Action (Debt Stress Is Mounting, Recession Warning!)

The Fed will have to whip it good with rate cuts if the recession warnings are an indicator of what lies ahead for the US economy.

The ratio of The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) vs. The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index (CEI) ratio hasn’t been this low since 2008.

Fed Funds Futures are signalling rate cuts at the September 17th FOMC meeting and December 10th meetings.

On the crypto front, Ethereum is soaring.

Debt stress is mounting!

People Get Ready! The Fed Might Actually Lower Rates! (But Will They Unwind Their Massive Balance Sheet?)

People get ready! Powell and the Fed might actually lower their target rate at The Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting on September 17.

The Fed hasn’t touched rates under Trump, but were hyperactive under Biden.

Let the good times roll? I wonder if Jay Powell and the other Fed honchos are taking Jackalope Rides in Jackson Hole, WYO?

Keep On Printing? Home Price Growth Linked To Fed Money Printing (Cleveland OH Is Fastest Growing City In Terms of Home Prices Tampa FL Fastest Declining)

Is This My Free One-Way Bus Ticket To Cleveland? Cleveland is leading the nation in home price growth at 4.7% YoY. Followed closely by Hartford CT, Louisville KY, Detroit MI and Buffalo NY.

Well, if The Fed would stop printing money (M2), home prices would decline. But The Fed will keep on printing!

Of course, the top 1% of net worth households are doing quite well thanks to The Fed’s eternal money printing.

On the commercial RE side, US office vacancy rates are approaching 20%.

Lastly, Tampa FL is the slowest growing area. Actually declining at a rate of -6.2% YoY.

What The Fed Can’t Fix! Percentage Of 30-Year-Olds Both Married and Homeowners Lowest Since 1950 (Mortgage Rates Near Highest Since 2006)

The US housing market is finally slowing down in terms of price growth. But this is after 3 Federal government-fueled house price bubbles.

In addition to record-high housing prices, mortgage rates are higher than levels going back to 2006.

Throw in the “woke” movement, and we have a problem. The percentage of 30-year-olds who are both married and homeowners has plummeted to the lowest level since 1950.

Simply lowering interest rates won’t fix this problem. Much of the housing “crisis” is due to local and state level politicians and their restrictive housing policies. Like LA Mayor Karen “Venceremos Brigade” Bass allocating the burnt-down Pacific Palisades area on the Pacific Ocean to “affordable housing.”