Category: Jobs

Keep On Printing? US GDP Still Growing At 3.5% Despite Malaise In Construction And Imports (So Much For Tariff Hysteria)

Well, tariffs didn’t turn out to be a lethal weapon as Democrats predicted. The US economy continues to grow!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 16, down from 3.6 percent on December 11. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the contributions of consumer spending and inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth fell slightly to 1.84 and 0.09 percentage points, respectively.

All signs except real estate construction and imports point to continued economic growth.

But as long as The Federal Reserve continues to print money (M2), the economy will continue to grow. Keep on printing?

Keep on printing?

Since The Federal Government Spending Spree Associated With Covid Ended, Median Household Income Has Declined, But So Have Home Prices

Roll out the barrel! As in Fed money printing.

How can the current housing disaster be fixed? One answer is to build more homes (made difficult by local government zoning and building policies). Another is increase household income. But Fed money printing is the easiest way to increase home prices.

Since the Federal government spending spree associated with Covid ended, median household income has declined. But so have home prices.

But in terms of home price growth compared to median household income, you can see that home price growth has slowed after the Covid spending spike, but so did median household income.

Pray that The Fed doesn’t resort to trying to fix the housing market. They will only make things worse.

Oyster Stew? Another Bad Government Idea To Fix Housing Affordability: The 50-year Mortgage (Interest Paid By Borrower Increases By 105%!)

Every time the government tries to make housing more affordable, they make the problem worse. Some people should rent and not fall for the government’s latest folly, the 50-year mortgage.

True, the 50-year mortgage would lower the monthly payment by several hundred dollars (see the following example where the monthly payment falls from $2,349 to $2,083. Or from $2,349 to $2,226 if the most rate increases with the longer mortgage life. BUT total interest paid increases 87% if the 50-year rate remains the same and 105% if the rate rises.

Principal paydown slows to a crawl with a 50-year mortgage, leaving the lender (or mortgage holder) exposed to higher risk if home prices fall.

Government housing policies remind me of the Curly versus the oyster stew skit. where Curly can’t catch the oyster. Yet keeps trying.

The 50-year mortgage reminds me of the ill-fated National Homeownership Strategy under Bill Clinton. By prdering all Federal housing finance entities to work with HUD, the National Homeownership Strategy helped crash the housing market (watch The Big Short!)

ADP Report Shows Big Job Losses In October, 45,000 Job Losses (Rate Cuts Around The Corner?)

The Federal government is still shut down, so we have to rely on ADP for jobs numbers.

The ADP weekly jobless report pointed to a deterioration in US labor momentum, stating that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”

Added together that is 45,000 job losses in the month (not including government workers), which would be the largest monthly drop in jobs since March 2023.

A sustained increase in layoffs would be particularly concerning now because the hiring rate is low and it is harder than usual for unemployed workers to find jobs.

It is likely that The Fed will cut rates to compensate. Rate cuts around the corner!

Revelio Labs Found 60.1 US Jobs Added In September (Q3 GDP At 3.8%)

Due to the ongoing government shutdown – now in its third day – the BLS did not release the September jobs report this morning forcing traders and the Fed to “fly blind.” Or blinder than usual. And with ADP reporting earlier this week that some 32,000 jobs had been lost in September, putting markets and economists on edge and the US economy on the verge of a labor recession, the lack of data could not have come at a worse time. Luckily, private sector alternatives to the BLS do exist and, in many cases, are far more accurate and certainly less politicized. 

The latest Revelio Labs number (+60.1k) is very notable as it suggests that the labor picture is nowhere near as bad as ADP indicated. In fact, as shown in the chart below, in September the Revelio Labs data set showed the best monthly increase in jobs in 2025!

The Federal Reserve will do what they want and will likely ignore the good report from Revelio. Besides, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is at 3.8% for Q3.

Here is the GDP breakdown.

BIGGEST Negative Payroll Revision On Record! March 2025 Revised Downward By 911k Jobs (Worse Than Last Biden Revision Of Over 600k Jobs)

Yes, the jobs revision for March 2025 is down by 911k jobs topping the last Biden revision of over 600k.

The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000 (-0.6 percent), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, CES employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). These counts are derived primarily from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file with state workforce agencies.

Here is the breakdown:

Wow. Every month during Biden’s last year in his reign of error was a negative revision.

Biden, the inept bozo.

50 Basis Point Cut Coming? US Economy Adds Only 22k Jobs In August, Unemployment Rate Rises To 4.3% (Guns Of August Misfires)

Not exactly the Guns Of August. More like a wet cap gun firing.

The jobs report for August showed only 22k jobs added.

U-3 unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. U-6 unemployment and part-time rose to 8.1%.

Total private jobs added was 38k while manufacturing jobs added was down -12k.

Government jobs dropped -16k.

It gets worse! All of the jobs added were PART-TIME!

It gets even worse: native-born workers plunged by 561K, the biggest one month drop since August 2024. Foreign-born workers increased by 50K, the first increase since March.

Let’s see if The Fed drops the hammer on rates by 50 basis points.

What The Fed Can’t Fix! Percentage Of 30-Year-Olds Both Married and Homeowners Lowest Since 1950 (Mortgage Rates Near Highest Since 2006)

The US housing market is finally slowing down in terms of price growth. But this is after 3 Federal government-fueled house price bubbles.

In addition to record-high housing prices, mortgage rates are higher than levels going back to 2006.

Throw in the “woke” movement, and we have a problem. The percentage of 30-year-olds who are both married and homeowners has plummeted to the lowest level since 1950.

Simply lowering interest rates won’t fix this problem. Much of the housing “crisis” is due to local and state level politicians and their restrictive housing policies. Like LA Mayor Karen “Venceremos Brigade” Bass allocating the burnt-down Pacific Palisades area on the Pacific Ocean to “affordable housing.”