July Jobs Report Factoids: Revisions Doomed BLS Commissioner McEntarfer, Native Born Workers Rose While Foreign Born Workers Declined, Federal Workers Declined For Sixth Straight Month

The July jobs reports for the US revealed some interesting factoids, such as the BLS Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, being fired. Note that McEntarfer was BLS Commissioner since January 29, 2024. But under McEntarfer, downward revisions were the norm except for election season (Oct 2024 – Dec 2024) when there were upward revisions. But once Trump was elected and took office, all jobs report revisions were negative.

Native born workers rose while foreign born workers declined.

And for the 6th straight month, Federal jobs declined.

And with the poor jobs report that will surely be revised upwards.

The market is pricing in a rate cut at the 09/17/2025 FOMC meeting.

Trump in the underworld (Washington DC).

Import Price “Inflation” YoY Falls To -0.2% (So Much For Hysteria About Trump’s Tariffs)

The media and Democrat politicians love to fear monger about how Trump’s tariffs would cause inflation and unemployment. But June’s import prices showed no inflation at all. In fact, import prices FELL -0.2% YoY.

The latest jobs report revealed that U-3 unemployment FELL to 4.10%.

But don’t worry. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will get hysterial about Trump firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And, as usual, be wrong.

Doge’d! Federal Job Hires Decline, Native-born Jobs Increase (Fed Likely To Keep Rates The Same)

The April Jobs report blew away the tariff crash hysteria. 177k jobs were added, far better than the doomsayers predicted. Even better, more jobs went to native-born workers than foreign-born workers. Even better still, Federal jobs decreased (thanks to Doge).

The US labor market under the Biden administration “grew” almost entirely on the back of “foreign-born” workers, who – as we also first revealed and eventually was widely accepted – were primarily illegal aliens. But in April, we saw a reversal with native-born workers growing and foreign-born workers declining.

And Federal workers continue to decline.

The good news? The Fed will likely not change rates at the next meeting.

I hope the good news on employment continues!

DC Follies? Reciprocal Tariffs, The Mag 7, Corporate Yields And Market Corrections (-17.5% Vs -35.4% In 2020)

US tariff policies for the last 50 years represent a folly. Particularly since Presidents Obama and Biden (along with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi) did nothing to correct the enormous disparity in tariffs. Trump is trying to do something to right the ship before it sinks like The Titanic.

Victor Davis Hanson wrote in the Daily Signal, “China has prohibitive tariffs, so does Vietnam, so does South Korea, so does Japan, so does Mexico, and so does Europe. So do a lot of countries. So does India. But if tariffs are so destructive to their economies, why is China booming?

Why is Canada mad at us when it’s running a $63 billion surplus and it has tariffs on some American products at 250%. Doesn’t it seem like the people who started this asymmetrical—if I could use the word—trade war should be the culpable people, not the people who are reluctantly reacting to it?

Were tariffs leveled against countries that had no tariffs against us?

The US hasn’t run a trade surplus since 1975 or 50 years. So, it wasn’t suddenly we woke up and said, “It’s unfair. We want commercial justice.” No. We’ve been watching this happen. For 50 years it’s been going on. And no president, no administration, no Congress in the past has done anything about it.

In the postwar period, we were so affluent, so powerful—Europe, China, Russia were in shambles—that we had to take up the burdens of reviving the economy by taking great trade deficits. Fifty years later, we have been deindustrialized. And the countries who did this to us, by these unfair and asymmetrical tariffs, did not fall apart. They did not self-destruct. They apparently thought it was in their self-interest. And if anybody calibrates the recent gross domestic product growth of India or Taiwan or South Korea or Japan, they seem to have some logic to it.

There’s a final irony. The people who are warning us most vehemently about this tariff quote the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930. But remember something, that came after the onset of the Depression—after. The stock market crashed in 1929. That law was not passed until 1930. It was not really amplified until ’31. And here’s the other thing that they were, conveniently, not reminded of: We were running a surplus. That was a preemptive punitive tariff, on our part, against other countries.
We had a trade surplus. And it was not 10% or 20%. Some of the tariffs were 40% and 50%. And again, it happened after the collapse of the stock market.

In conclusion, don’t you find it very ironic that Wall Street is blaming the Trump tariffs for heading us into a recession, if not depression, when the only great depression we’ve ever had was not caused by tariffs but by Wall Street?”

Average reciprocal tariffs could rise to 35%!

The Mag 7 index has gotten crushed under Trump’s tariffs.

Corporate bond yield has soared with Trump’s tariffs.

The market correction thus far is -17.5%, not even close to the worst correction since 2009 (-35.4% in 2020).

US Payrolls Unexpectedly Soar To 228K (Federal Government Employment Lost 4K Jobs)

Most people are focused on the Great Reset in Global Trade, caused by Obama/Biden/Schumer/Pelosi letting US trading partners getting away with massive disparate tariffs against the US. Now that Trump is trying to level the playing field, we will see short-term losses in the stock market. But the jobs report for March shows that Trump’s economic policies are working.

The March jobs report ended up being far stronger than expected, as the US added a whopping 228K jobs, the highest since December and more than double the 117K in February (revised lower from 151K).

The better news? Federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March, following a loss of 11,000 jobs in February.

The Fool? US Dollar Soars As Probability Of Default Reaches 42%

Trump inherited a brittle economy from “The Fool” Joe Biden. And it is shown up.

The Trump Administration is fighting the remnants of Biden’s policies by cutting spending (DOGE) and deregulation.

All this has resulted in a soaring US Dollar.

Tarot cards have officially renamed “The Fool” card as “The Biden.” Although in Washington DC, there is no shortage of fools (see Maxine Waters (D-CA) and Rashida Talib (D-MI).

DOGE Donkeys? Initial Jobless Claims SOAR In Washington DC, Over 2 Million, As “The Borg King” (Elon Musk) Takes Control (DOGE Has Saved Taxpayers Over $143 BILLION So Far)

Elon Musk, who Democrats consider to be The Borg King, and DOGE have laid-off many Federal workers. Today’s jobless claims report revealed that over 2 million Federal workers filed for unemployment benefits.

DOGE has saved taxpayers over $143 BILLION thus far.

How Democrats view Elon Musk.

Economic Heartbreaker! Over 1 Million Foreign-Born Workers Found A Job In January But Virtually No Native Borns

It’s no fun paying for illegal aliens. And under Biden/Harris, there are a lot of them in the USA. And they have been taking American jobs too.

Most of the job gains in the past few years, and especially 2024, were a mirage, and following the dramatic August 2024 preliminary data revision which vaporized 818K jobs (which had never existed in the first place.

Over 1 Mmillion foreign-born workers found a job in January … but virtually no native borns.

And in the longer view, you can see the Biden/Harris effect after 2021.

Biden/Harris were economic heartbreakers. For the middle class, not for the Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders class who made out like bandits under Biden’s corrupt leadership.

Big pharma owns Bernie, Liz, Chuckie, Patty Murray, Warnock and Wyden.

Bummer! January Jobs Growth Below Estimates Amid Massive Revisions, Job Gains At +143k (New Sheriff In Town!)

Biden is out and so are the crazy job preferences of his administration (e.g., green energy). There is a new sheriff in town (Donald Trump).

Here’s what the BLS reported in Trump’s first official jobs report since he returned to the White House: total payrolls printed at 143K.

down sharply from an upward revised 307K (256K originally) and missing estimates of 175K.

Looking further back, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 49,000, from +212,000 to +261,000, and when adding the +51,000 revision to December employment in November and December combined is 100,000 higher than previously reported

But while the sequential change in the Establishment survey was notable, what was far more remarkable was the Household survey where we saw massive population related revisions (discussed last night), which pushed the civilian labor force higher by 2.2 million to 170.744 million, while the number of employed workers also increased by over 2.2 million to 163.895 million. As a result, the Household survey has finally caught up to Establishment survey.

Where the jobs are.

Revisions?

The Presidential portrait of Joe Biden.

Left Behind! Aka, The Mess Biden/Harris Left Behind: 36+ Trillion In Debt, Massive Budget Deficits, Declining Real Wages (And $226 Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities, 6 Times The Federal Debt)

I can’t wait for Billions Biden, The DC parasite who selectively shoves billions of dollars to his friends and nothing for the others. For example, bailing out the LA wildfires but stiffing the people of North Carolina and Florida for hurricane/flood damage. And funding Ukraine while real wage growth is negative. And heavy investment in green energy, the ultimate fool’s errand.

Let’s start with declining real wage growth under Biden/Harris (blue line). Meanwhile, Federal government spending (dashed green line) continues to grow causing inflation.

Meanwhile, Biden/Harris and Congress left Trump with the largest budget deficit in history. Like endlessly funding Ukraine and illegal immigration.

Leaving American taxpayers with growing Federal debt of $36+ trillion. And unfunded liabilities of $226 trillion, over 6 times the national debt.

The US will hit its debt ceiling the day after President Trump is inaugurated, and Yellen said that the Treasury will launch “extraordinary measures” to stave off the threat of a national default. Bear in mind, Janet Yellen personally oversaw total debt increase by a staggering $15 trillion. Way to go, Janet!

I wonder how Trump’s Treasury secretary will handle this? At least better than Janet Yellen, I hope!