Mortgage Demand Rises 9.2% In Recent Week (But Purchase Demand Fell 6%)

Stay with the mortgage market! It is improving under Trump after a disastrous run under Biden.

But for last week, mortgage applications increased 9.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 34 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The holiday-adjusted refinance index had its strongest week in a year and the average loan size for refinances also increased significantly, since borrowers with large loans are more sensitive to bigger rate moves. Refinance applications accounted for almost 49 percent of all applications last week.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.49 percent from 6.64 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

BIGGEST Negative Payroll Revision On Record! March 2025 Revised Downward By 911k Jobs (Worse Than Last Biden Revision Of Over 600k Jobs)

Yes, the jobs revision for March 2025 is down by 911k jobs topping the last Biden revision of over 600k.

The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000 (-0.6 percent), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, CES employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). These counts are derived primarily from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file with state workforce agencies.

Here is the breakdown:

Wow. Every month during Biden’s last year in his reign of error was a negative revision.

Biden, the inept bozo.

Too Much Debt? Auto And Office Debt Markets Are Bursting!

Too much debt?

The car market bubble is bursting! Subprime auto loan delinquency rates have now surpassed 5% for the first time in history. The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED over the last 3 years. Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing.

The office CMBS delinquency rate is at an all-time high.

50 Basis Point Cut Coming? US Economy Adds Only 22k Jobs In August, Unemployment Rate Rises To 4.3% (Guns Of August Misfires)

Not exactly the Guns Of August. More like a wet cap gun firing.

The jobs report for August showed only 22k jobs added.

U-3 unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. U-6 unemployment and part-time rose to 8.1%.

Total private jobs added was 38k while manufacturing jobs added was down -12k.

Government jobs dropped -16k.

It gets worse! All of the jobs added were PART-TIME!

It gets even worse: native-born workers plunged by 561K, the biggest one month drop since August 2024. Foreign-born workers increased by 50K, the first increase since March.

Let’s see if The Fed drops the hammer on rates by 50 basis points.

30Y Mortgage Rates Decline To 6.64% (Repeat Of 1978-1981?)

The good news? The US 30-year mortgage rate fell slightly to 6.64%.

The bad news? It seems to be a milder repeat of the Ford/Carter years of the late 1970s/early 1980s. Rising 10-year Treasury yields and 30-year mortgage rates during the Ford/Carter years … and early Reagan years. The difference? The Federal Reserve is fundamentally different today than previously. With Bernanke/Yellen, The Fed became more “activist” (like Obama/Biden-appoointed District Judges). Powell is returning to the Yellen model of Fed activism … not doing much.

Now the market awaits a rate cut from The Fed at the next FOMC meeting. But 30-year mortgage rates are most closely related to the 10-year Treasury yield than the short-term Fed Funds rate. Theoretically, The Fed could cut their target rate by 25 basis points and mortgage rates could be uneffected. Or even rise.

Here is a video of Fed Chair Jerome Powell trying to lower mortgage rates.

What about the mortgage rates, Fawlty?

US Q3 GDP Forecast Falls To 3% From 3.5% On Decline In Equipment Investment (CMBS Office Delinquency Hits All-time High!)

US Q3 GDP fell slightly in Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow latest revision to 3.0% from 3.5% last week.

The source of the decline in GDP? Equipment investment fell to 8.9.

From 11.7. Hard to sustain high levels of equipment investment.

On a related note, office CMBS just hit all-time high. Yes, higher than the financial crisis!!

Mortgage Applications Decline 1.2 Percent From Previous Week (Purchase Index Decreased 6 Percent, Refinance Index Increased 1 Percent)

Bad, bad Jerome Powell.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 29, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago. 

Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to its lowest level since April to 6.64 percent. However, that was not enough to spark more application activity. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.64 percent from 6.69 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

But don’t get your hopes up about The Fed saving the housing market.

US Manufacturing PMI Rises Dramatically To 53 In August, Strongest In Three Years (Chicago Crime Map, West Side Of Chicago Is The Baddest Part Of Town)

S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI rose dramatically from 49.8 in July to 53.0 in August (down very marginally from its preliminary print of 53.3) – the strongest in over three years.

On a different note, Chicago was in the news again for 54 shot, 7 killed in Chicago over the weekend. Crime is spreading, but most of the violent crime can be found in the Austin and Englewood neighborhoods. Although Garfield Park, Humboldt Park, North Lawndale and South Shore are no slouches.

The west side of Chicago is the baddest part of time. But as Jim Croce sang, the south side is pretty bad.

Q3 GDP Forecasts Soars To 3.5% (Equipment And Exports Lead The Way! Residential Investment Down -8.2)

So much for the defeatist mentality in the main stream media, Congress and economists!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.2 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 6.1 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.36 percentage points to 0.59 percentage points.

The breakdown? Equipment growth at 11.7 was the standout along with exports at 7.9%.

Residential investment is down -8.2. This isn’t helping!

Time to pop a cheap beer!

Financial Twilight Zone! Home Builder Stock Surges As Homebuilder Sentiment Slumps

I feel like we are in the financial Twilight Zone.

Home builder stock prices have surged, while home builder sentiment has plunged.

Of course, The Fed’s endless money printing isn’t helping the supply side of home building.

To make matters worse, pending home sales remain in the doldrums.

Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook is an embarrasment for committing mortgage fraud, then refusing to step down. And now she has filed a lawsuit against the Trump Administration for wrongful termination. Typical of an Obama appointee!