Slipping Into Darkness! US Real GDP Forecast Barely Above 0% Growth (Atlanta Fed GDPNow At 0.3%) With Less Than Two Months Until Midterm Elections

Slipping into darkness … with less than two months until the US midterm elections.

Latest estimate: 0.3 percent — September 20, 2022

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.3 percent on September 20, down from 0.5 percent on September 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter residential investment growth decreased from -20.8 percent to -24.5 percent.

The culprit? US Housing starts!

We knew from this morning that housing starts declined -0.01% YoY as The Fed’s Stimulypto wears off.

Soothe Me? US Q2 Real GDP Sinks To -1.5% As Fed Tightens The Monetary Noose

The Federal Reserve isn’t soothing me with their rate hikes.

As The Fed has been raising their target rate and beginning to shrink their balance sheet, we are seeing Q3 Real GDP slipping further down the rabbit hole to -1.5%.

The culprit? Friday’s retail trade, import/export prices and industrial production.

Time for some tequila to soothe me, since The Fed or the Biden Administration won’t help.