Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
Call this “Nobody’s Everything.” Crytpocurrencies are getting clobbered. But then again, the S&P 500 is not doing so well. But crypto stalwarts Bitcoin and Ethereum have down even worse.
At the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin has gotten pummeled.
But at least Bitcoin rose this morning along with Bitcoin Cash. And XRP. But the others are getting clobbered.
Microstrategy bonds are getting crushed.
April’s inflation numbers are out and, at first glance, inflation seems to be cooling from 8.5% YoY in March to 8.3% YoY.
But the headline inflation numbers do not accurately reflect the pain and suffering of American households. Food is up 9.4% YoY and gasoline is up 43.6% YoY.
The strange way the BLS measure “shelter” shows that housing only grew at 5.1% YoY. That’s odd since home price growth is almost 20% YoY and rent growth is near 20%.
Runaway home prices and rents are especially painful given that inflation is destroying the purchasing power of the dollar for consumers. Real average weekly earnings YoY are at -3.4% YoY.
Hence, the purchasing power of the US Dollar keeps eroding.
Good luck out there with inflation still roaring, and food/housing/energy prices soaring.
Here is a photo of American children trying to create energy from flying a kite made from progressively devalued US currency.
Yes, homebuyers are jumping into a generally slowing housing market to “beat the heat.” That is, beat The Fed’s monetary tightening.
Mortgage applications increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 6, 2022.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 72 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Beat the Heat!! Or Beat The Fed!!
As least inflation came in slightly cooler in April at 8.3% YoY. While housing (own or rent) is rising at over 2x CPI.
Joe Biden likes to sell himself as “Middle Class” Joe. But Middle Class Joe declared war on the middle class with executive orders on fossil fuel drilling and killing the Keystone pipeline. Hence, his press conference on reducing inflation left off one thing: he could rescind the aforementioned executive orders. But he didn’t. So its Band-Aids on Band-Aids.
Since Biden was elected President, WTI Crude Oil futures are up 102%. Regular gasoline is up 83% and the lifeline of the shipping industry, diesel, is up 111%. Of course, inflation measures don’t measure the harm to the middle class at 8.5% YoY.
Here is Biden’s speech, blaming everyone but himself for inflation. And then walks away (as usual) when asked a tough question. But he lied. He COULD cancel his executive orders on oil and natural gas exploration, but didn’t. Instead, he blamed Trump and MAGA voters.
As the US is engulfed in inflation while The Federal Reserve is engaged in trying to fight inflation (well, sort of), we are seeing markets taking a shellacking, particularly commodities.
One indicator of a slowdown is declining commodity prices. Crude oil futures are down around -2.5%. Iron Ore is down -5% and steel rebar is down -3.21%.
Inflation numbers are due out Wednesday and are forecast to be 8.1% YoY (based on headline CPI). But combined with a slowing global economy, we get the dreaded “STAGFLATION.”
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index futures are down around 1.726% for Monday open. Asian markets already got clobbered with the Hang Seng down almost -4%.
On the bond side, the 10Y Treasury Note yield rose to 3.20% early in the morning, but has retreated to 3.1447% as of 8:40am EST.
Both stock and bond market volatility measures are increasing.
So, is it a Blue Monday effect? Or global stagflation?
Time for supplemental income under the Biden Administration.
As crooner Dean Martin once said, “Let ’em have it!” Ain’t this a kick in the … head.
Perhaps Joe Biden and Fed Chair Jay Powell are channeling Dean Martin by letting us have it.
Since Obama’s 3rd term as President (aka, Biden’s installation as President on January 20, 2021), mortgage rates have risen 87%, regular gasoline prices have risen 80%, CRB foodstuffs are up 59% and Commodities are up 63%.
And don’t forget about America’s energy life force, WTI Crude Oil. It is UP 123% under Biden.
Rents? Rising at a 16.8% rate.
Rents rising, food costs rising, energy costs rising, Biden and The Fed are taking us higher. In terms of prices and cost of living.
The Biden Administration and The Federal Reserve together should be called “The Cooler Kings” in that their policies are putting a Big Chill on the mortgage market and equities.
Mortgage rates are skyrocketing thanks to the Federal Reserve.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.27% for the week ending May 5, according to data released by Freddie Mac FMCC, -1.62% on Thursday. That’s up 17 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point, or 1% of 1%.
House price growth to wage growth is below the all-time high, but remains above housing bubble levels of 2005-2007.
The Refinitiv Venture Capital Index is down 53% since November ’21 as The Fed cranks up interest rates.
Well, at least commodities are soaring under “The Cooler Kings.” Pretty much everything else is sucking wind.
Home prices are actually falling in some cities, like Toledo Ohio, Detroit Michigan, Rochester NY, and Pittsburgh PA. Even La-La Land (Los Angeles CA) is seeing a drop in median listing price since 2021 of -5.0%.
The question, of course, is whether The Federal Reserve will back off its plans to aggressively raise interest rates in lieu of crashing stock market, venture capital, and possibly home prices.
This is Scorcher VI: Global Meltdown.
It has been a miserable day for markets as The Federal Reserve struggles to get inflation under control.
The Dow fell over 1,000 points today and NASDAQ was down a cool 5%.
Is the Hinderburg Omen back in fashion? Better yet, the Powell-Yellenburg Omen?
While equity markets have gotten clobbered by Powell and the Gang, commodities at least rallied in the afternoon.
The headline screamed “NASDAQ PLUNGES 5%!
True, it did, but it simply lost the gain’s from yesterday’s surprisingly mild Fed announcement.
But the 10-year Treasury yield is rising faster than my blood pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield is up to 3.09%.
Cryptos? Bitcoin is down -7.27% and Dash is down -8.23%.
Watch out mortgage rates!!
Don’t panic … about the NASDAQ. EVERYBODY PANIC about rising mortgage rates.
Here’s some simple Medusa math for you: negative growth + payroll gains = negative productivity. Negative productivity + high labor costs = very high unit labor costs. That’s not a pretty picture for the economy or for companies, and the Q1 figures were even worse than expected — productivity fell by 7.5%, pushing unit labor costs up by 11.6%. Nasty.
In fact, labor productivity fell to the lowest level since 1947 and President Harry Truman.
Of course, Biden’s green energy policies have led to crushing inflation.
So, after Fed Chair Powell (aka, Jay The Revelator) said yesterday that “No Signs US Economy ‘Vulnerable’ To Recession”, we saw the S&P 500 index dive 1.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield break through the 3% barrier.
Biden’s policies are a Medusa-touch on the economy.
The new logo for the Biden Administration.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 