Pre-Fed Status: 100% Probability Of US Recession In 2023, Mortgage Rate Steady (US Yield Curve Now Inverted For 116 Straight Days, Implied Rate Hike Of +50 BPS To 4.50%)

Fun week ahead. US inflation numbers are out on Tuesday (forecast? CPI YoY = 7.3%, Core CPI YoY = 6.1%) and The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision is on Wendesday.

So, where are we sitting on Monday?

First, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve has been inverted (a precursor to recession) for 116 straight days). Second, the likelihood of recession in 2023 is 100%. Third, with the forecast of core inflation at a still numbing 6.1%, The Fed seems dead set on raising their target rate by 50 basis points to 4.50% on Wednesday.


So, as The Fed debates recession versus fighting inflation (partly caused by The Fed), we have Kevin Malone from The Office debating Angela versus double-fudge brownies:

“I hear Angela’s party will have double fudge brownies. But it will also have Angela. Double fudge.. Angela.. double fudge….. Angela. Hmm..” I am betting on risking a recession by raising the Fed’s target rate by 50 basis points.