CPI: No Inflation In June, But Shelter Prices Up 3.8% YoY (Foul Powell On The Prowl)

US prices rose 0.3% MoM in June according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS). And on a YoY basis, inflation rose 2.7% while core inflation rose 2.9%.

Supercore inflation was up 3.017% YoY.

As of May, import prices rose a scant 0.0% MoM and 0.2% YoY.

Shelter rose 3.8% YoY in June while gas utilities rose 14.2%.

And on this news, the yield on 30-year Treasuries rose 5%.

Not a chance that Foul Powell will cut rates now.

Mortgage Applications Increased 9.4 Percent From One Week Earlier While Purchase Index Decreased 13 Percent Compared With The Previous Week

Thank goodness “Statist Joe” Biden is gone. Kamala Harris is still lingering around the edges, while the mortgage and housing markets are still suffering from the Biden/Harris regulatory overreach.

Mortgage applications increased 9.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 4, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.77 percent, its lowest level in three months. After adjusting for the July 4th holiday, purchase applications increased to the highest level of activity since February 2023 and remained above year-ago levels.

Biden claims the foreign leaders have been calling him for advice. Here is one example.

The Short End: US Treasury Yield Curve Flattens Since Dec 31, 2024 (Pending US Home Sales Remain Low)

The US Treasury yield curve is flattening at the short-end (2-3 years) but remains unchanged at the long end (>= 20 years).

And pending US Home Sales remain low.

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s horrid economic follicies.

Going Down! New Home Sales Plunged In May As Mortgage Rates Rose (Worst Since June 2022)

New home sales are going down.

New home sales plunged in May, the biggest MoM drop since June 2022.

The median sales price increased 3% from a year ago to $426,600 last month, marking the first year-over-year price gain in 2025.

The plunge in new home sales came as mortgage rates ticked back higher.

Another example of the carnage left behind by President Autopen (Joe Biden).

Keep On Printing? Home Prices Slow In April, But Still Up 2.64% YoY As Fed Continues To Print Money

The Fed continues printing money! And home prices continue to rise on year-over-year basis, but falling on a month-over-month basis.

Home prices in April tumbled 0.31% MoM (-0.02% exp) – the biggest MoM drop since Dec 2022.

But if we look at the national home prices via S&P Case-Shiller and YoY rather than MoM, home prices ROSE 2.64% YoY.

You can see the damage to homeownership caused by Covid and The Fed. The massive expansion of M2 Money in 2020 was followed shortly by rapid increases in home prices. This was followed by a normalization in Fed M2 Money printing. Consequently, home price growth has slowed.

Bits And Pieces? US Household Net Worth Fell By -0.93% In Q1 2025 As Bitcoin Falls Below 100k

The housing markets is in bits and pieces following The Fed’s fickle management of interest rates and Biden’s disastrous spending policies. U.S. household net worth fell by 0.93% in 1Q2025 … largest decline since 3Q2022, but not necessarily comparable to that quarter in terms of magnitude.

Bitcoin just broke below $100k.

What will The Fed? As I have said over and over again, The Fed needs to cut rates.

Covid, The Fed, Biden And The Impossibility Of Home Ownership In A Post-Biden World

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s favorite song: “No sugar tonight” for the mortgage market. The Fed provided plenty of sugar during the Covid crisis of 2020.

Mortgage rates grew under Biden from under 3% to nearly 8%, helping to choke off housing demand.

The good news? Median home price growth YoY has been negative since 2023 whilr average hourly earnings YoY has been positive and steady.

Please Jerome, lower rates!! We are in a ring of fire with high housing prices and high mortgage rates.

Crazy Train! Mortgage Applications Decreased 2.6 Percent From One Week Earlier (Home Prices Rose 39% Under Biden While Mortgage Originations At Large Banks Fell -61%)

All aboard! The crazy mortgage train! Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%. The mortgage market is still recovering from Bidenomics!

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 13, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%.

Trump’s Economy In Q2 Growing At 3.5% As Fed Keeps On Printing!

The Fed’s themesong: Keep on printing!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on June 17, down from 3.8 percent on June 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government expenditures growth decreased from 2.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent, while the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.9 percent to -1.4 percent.

GDP growth corresponds to Fed money printing.

Here is the breakdown. True, real GDP growth has been slowing over June.

Simply Unaffordable? US Homebuilder Confidence Tumbles Near 13-Year-Lows Due To Post-Covid Home Price Gains (And Higher Mortgage Rates)

Thanks a lot Fed! Home prices rose dramatically after Covid as The Fed printed billions of dollar of currency (M2). Making housing unaffordable for much of America.

As a result of higher mortgage rates and higher home prices, homebuilder confidence is at a 13 year low (back to 2012).

Housing is simply unaffordable thanks to bad housing policies and The Fed.