Kama Kameleon! Fed Loses Record Amount, Bankrupty Filings (Chap 11) Highest In 13 Years, Foreign Investors Pulling Out Of China

Kama Kameleon.

Kamala Harris, despite being VP for almost 4 years, is going to annouce her plans for taming inflation. Why doesn’t she do it now?? What Harris can’t control is The Federal Reserve that is losing money at breakneck speed.

Here is The Fed’s balance sheet.

I shudder to think what Harris will propose to solve the highest bankrupty (Chap 11) rate in 13 years. Probably more Bidenomics (big wealth transfers to large corporations/donors).

Meanwhile, foreigns pulled a record amount of funds from ailing China.

Kamala Harris will say anything to get elected, then fall back on her Communist agenda.

Mortgage Purchase Demand Dropped 14% Compared To 1 Year Ago

Mortgage applications decreased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 26, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Note the decline in mortgage purchase demand after Biden/Harris were sworn into office in Janaury 2021.

The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 32 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) remained unchanged at 6.82 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Because of rising rates under Biden/Harris economic policies, mortgage refinancing demand has gotten crushed.

We are in the latter half of the year, so seasonalility will kill off purchase mortgage demand compared to the Spring and early Summer.

US Yield Curve Is Least Inverted 2 Years (Signal Of Impending Fed Rate Cut)

Shape of things. Thw Fed will likely cut rates shortly helping the flagging mortgage market

The US Treasury yield curve, of Jay Powell and The Blackhearts, .js the least inverted in 2 years, signalling an impending Fed rate cut.

The Fed loves manipulating interest rates!

US New Home Sales Fall In June As Homebuyer Confidence Crashes To Record Low (Biden/HarrisNomics or Cacklenomics)

From Zero Hedge.

After a disappointing dump in existing home sales in June, new home sales just confirmed the slowdown, dropping 0.6% MoM (notably below the 3.4% MoM expected) and also saw a major downward revision in May from -11.3% MoM to -14.9% MoM. That leaves new home sales down 7.4% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

That shift dragged the new home sales SAAR down to 617k – basically unchanged since 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

While the median new home price rose in June, it remains below the median existing home price…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears the homebuilder subsidy fad is wearing off as mortgage rates show no signs of easing significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, none of this should be a surprise as homebuyer confidence has collapsed to an all-time record low…

Source: Bloomberg

Will cutting rates help?

Probably not. Bidenomics is now called Harrisnomics (or Cacklenomics) since Harris as VP was the tiereaker in the US Senate. So, she holds some responsibility for the outrageous, wasteful spending in Washington DC.

Nothing From Nothing! Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Remains Negative At -4.8 YoY (US Unfunded Entitlements Now Exceed Total US National Assets!)

Nothing from nothing should be the slogan of Bidenomics.

Conference board’s leading economic indicators remains negative YoY at -4.8.

Worried? What if I told you that the promises of unfunded entitlements from the Federal government now exceeed the TOTAL national assets of the US??

Way to go, Joe! But he had plenty of help from Congress.

Something Stupid! Biden Proposes Rent Control Of 5% Annual Cap Rent Increases

President Biden was expected yesterday to propose a cap of 5% on annual rent increases for tenants of major apartment landlords, and he did. Whether it can happen is something else.

As the White House communicated on Tuesday, the administration is looking for Congress to pass legislation for landlords with more than 50 units in their portfolios, that being the proxy for institutional owners, although it would also affect private investors, family offices, and others that might own at least that many units. According to administration calculations, the total pool would cover 20 million rental units.

The law would then give landlords a choice. They could either restrict annual rent increases to no more than 5% a year or they would forfeit the ability to take fast depreciation of rental housing. There would be an exception for new construction or “substantial renovation or rehabilitation.”

So, Biden is dusting off the old Jane Fonda/Tom Hayden Santa Monica, CA rent control scheme.

I am guesing that this will not pass the House, but will probably pass in the Confederacy of Dunces: the US Senate.

Going Down! US Producer Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 15 Months As Services Costs Soar (Buying Conditions For Housing Hit All-time Low!)

We’re going down!

After May’s MoM deflationary impulse (thanks to a plunge in energy costs), June was expected to see a modest 0.1% rise (and we have seen energy prices starting to rise again). Sure enough, headline PPI printed HOT at +0.2% MoM (and May was revised higher), pushing the YoY print up to 2.6% (well above the 2.3% expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest PPI since March 2023.

Core PPI rose by 0.4% MoM (double the 0.2% exp), sending the YoY price rise up by 3.0% (also the hottest since March 2023)…

Source: Bloomberg

The jump in PPI was driven by a resurgence in Services costs as Energy remains deflationary (for now)…

Source: Bloomberg

The June rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.6-percent increase in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods decreased 0.5 percent

Perhaps worse still, the pipeline for PPI (intermediate demand) is accelerating…

Source: Bloomberg

On the housing side, buying conditions for housing tanks to all-time low.

Inflation Slows To 3.0%, But Shelter Still Rising At 5.2%, Electricity Up 4.4% (Core Prices Continue To Rise And Have Never Been Higher)

Are you ready? You can tell an election is on the radar since inflation numbers are settling down for the most part. According to the BLS, overall inflation fell slightly in June to 3.0%.

Shelter CPI is up 5.14% YoY as M2 Money growth has been rising slowly … again.

Core CPI also ‘missed’, rising just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.2% exp), dragging the YoY Core CPI down to +3.27% – its lowest since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Goods deflation also dominates core prices disinflationary trend…

We do note that Core consumer prices have still not seen a single monthly decline since Bidenomics began.

Core consumer prices are up just under 18% since Bidenomics began (+4.9% per annum) – that is dramatically higher than the 2.0% per annum Americans experienced under Trump…

Core consumer prices have never been higher.

The much-watched SuperCore CPI rose on a MoM basis but declined (back below 5.0%) on a YoY basis (but obviously remains extremely elevated)…

Source: Bloomberg

Transportation Services are seeing prices fall…

Finally, we can’t help but get a sense of deja vu all over again here. What if… The Fed cuts (because bad – recession – data), Biden loses (because dementia), and inflation re-accelerates (just like in the 80s)…

Source: Bloomberg

Challenger job cuts in construction we the highest since 2008 putting downward pressure on wages.

MBA Purchase Applications (Demand) Drops 13% YoY (Demand Keeps Falling Under Biden)

That’s the way Biden likes it! Dependence on the Federal government. The MBA data is adjusted for Dependence Day.

Mortgage applications decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 5, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 20 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 19 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 28 percent higher than the same week one year ago. 

Mprtgage prepays fell less than daycoiunt.

But on;y high-coupn GNMAs prepayments sped up.

Finally, most out-of-the-money loans are now fully seasoned.

And a bigger wave of refi-eligible Ginnies are cpming up! So watch out if Powell and The Gang lower rates. Prepayment boogie!!

58% expect a new refi wave to start in 2025.

MMT (Mostly Magic Theory)! The Fraud Of ‘Monetary Policy’ (Mortgage Rates Rising With Magical Fed Money Printing)

MMT is mostly magic! The Federal Reserve relies on “The Power of Magic” to fool people. For example, the massive increase in money printing following Covid and Biden’s disastrous economic policies (or FOLLICIES).

Modern monetary theory (MMT) is not convincing to most trained economists of various schools of thought. This causes many to balk at MMT and mock it, some of which is warranted as a reductio ad absurdum, especially given some of MMT’s more outlandish claims. In fact, my own thesis was an Austrian critique of MMT.

But there is also a fair amount of hypocrisy in the non-Austrian (e.g., mainstream, Keynesian, monetarist) critiques of MMT by mainstream economists. The truth is that most, if not all, of these economists share the same faulty presuppositions regarding what is euphemistically called “monetary policy.” The difference between mainstream and MMT economists is usually one of degree, not of kind.

Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman (1987–2006) and most definitely not an MMT proponent, made a very MMT-friendly claim: “The United States can pay any debt it has because it can always print money to do that, so there is zero probability of default.” While this is literally true, and points to the fact that the nominal debt and dollars are not the issue, it overlooks the distortionary consequences from this manipulation on the entire structure of production. Nevertheless, such a claim is often also repeated by proponents of MMT, as if it contains some magic missing ingredient to unlock greater stores of wealth.

In fact, MMT provides a warranted critique to other schools of economic thought that share an underlying premise while not arriving at the same conclusions. That assumption is so-called monetary policy—that governments via a central banking monopoly ought to be the sole entity that issues and controls money as a policy instrument. The dubious justifications for this are that it provides greater economic stability and expansion of money and credit according to the needs of trade. (Both of these are false, theoretically and empirically.) That said, MMT and mainstream economics both share this presupposition, assuming the validity of monetary policy.

As an example of presenting the broad mainstream on the definition of “monetary policy,” the popular financial encyclopedia Investopedia has previously stated the following:

“Monetary policy is a set of tools that a nation’s central bank has available to promote sustainable economic growth by controlling the overall supply of money that is available to the nation’s banks, its consumers, and its businesses. . . . The main weapon at its disposal is the nation’s money (italics added).”

The casual use of the word “weapon” is apt. In the hands of a state monopoly, money can indeed be “weaponized.” Inflation is the artificial expansion of money and credit that has the effect of transferring wealth from all money holders to the inflater(s). This may be done under the guise of “policy”—appearing official, orderly, and legitimate—but it involves elites in power taking actions that would otherwise be criminal behavior (e.g., fraud and counterfeiting).

Even without the ethical-philosophical discussion on whether changing the money supply is fraudulent, economically, the consequences remain. The inflation of money and fiduciary media (artificial credit) causes economic miscalculations and boom-bust cycles, distorts the structure of production, encourages capital consumption, undermines the actions of individuals, discourages saving, transfers wealth from the citizenry to the government and those who are politically connected, affects money’s purchasing power, and has a whole host of other unintended effects. All this, of course, is done under the legal cover of “policy” to achieve “stable economic growth,” as well as ambidextrously maintaining the false dichotomy between full employment and inflation.

Enter MMT, which takes “monetary policy” concepts to their logical conclusions, demonstrating the consequences in a striking way, and mainstream economists quickly want to disassociate themselves from this “crazy” new idea. People may not appreciate some MMTers claiming what they do about inflation, government spending, full employment, and debt; yet politicians and monetary bureaucrats sure seem to act like they believe MMT.

MMT correctly observes that government—through a balance of taxation, deficit spending, inflation, and monetary policy—attempts to centrally control an economy and does, in fact, direct real resources toward its ends. These are common policy tools of the state and central banks. MMT would just like to leverage these tools to a greater extent and direct them toward different ends. Likewise, Investopedia had further clarified

“The Federal Reserve is in charge of monetary policy in the U.S. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has what is commonly referred to as a dual mandate: to achieve maximum employment while keeping inflation in check.”

Is this above statement not basically a statement of the goals of MMT? Other economic schools of thought that accept the underlying presuppositions of the necessity of monetary policy are not fundamentally in disagreement with MMT on this point; in fact, they are in fundamental agreement. This undermines the ability of these schools to effectively deliver a fundamental critique of MMT rather than just disagreements about how and to what extent monetary policy is to be utilized.

Economic criticism on these points—whether from MMT to the “other side” or from the “other side” to MMT—involves inconsistency. By condemning the other, they condemn themselves because they share core presuppositions. The existence of MMT is effectively a reductio ad absurdum of so-called monetary policy. MMT reasonably asks: What if we did more of the same? Obviously, the degree to which something is done can be critiqued without abandoning the whole thing, but the flawed assumptions are twofold: (1) that there is “just the right amount” of monetary policy and (2) that there are certain enlightened experts who know what it is and only need monopoly over the money supply to achieve it.

Whether MMT or otherwise, proponents of so-called monetary policy essentially believe that money is a policy instrument (or weapon) to be wielded by government elites to rearrange prices, resources, and the structure of production contrary to the demonstrated preferences of millions of individuals. Therefore, the United States has been under a monetary policy regime of “stabilizers” who have argued about how to implement a fundamentally flawed “policy” for over a century. 

Whenever this fails and destabilizes the economy, we are treated to critics who blame the free market and deregulation and who want to use monetary policy to “run the economy” differently.

Instead, we ought to abandon the fraud of monetary policy and heed the words of F.A. Hayek concerning the results of monetary policy that led to America’s Great Depression:

“We must not forget that, for the last six or eight years [up to 1932] monetary policy all over the world has followed the advice of the stabilizers. It is high time that their influence, which has already done harm enough, should be overthrown.”

Mortgage rates have actually risen as The Fed has increased M2 Money printng. Like DARK magic.