Are you ready? You can tell an election is on the radar since inflation numbers are settling down for the most part. According to the BLS, overall inflation fell slightly in June to 3.0%.
Shelter CPI is up 5.14% YoY as M2 Money growth has been rising slowly … again.
Core CPI also ‘missed’, rising just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.2% exp), dragging the YoY Core CPI down to +3.27% – its lowest since April 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Goods deflation also dominates core prices disinflationary trend…
We do note that Core consumer prices have still not seen a single monthly decline since Bidenomics began.
Core consumer prices are up just under 18% since Bidenomics began (+4.9% per annum) – that is dramatically higher than the 2.0% per annum Americans experienced under Trump…
The much-watched SuperCore CPI rose on a MoM basis but declined (back below 5.0%) on a YoY basis (but obviously remains extremely elevated)…
Source: Bloomberg
Transportation Services are seeing prices fall…
Finally, we can’t help but get a sense of deja vu all over again here. What if… The Fed cuts (because bad – recession – data), Biden loses (because dementia), and inflation re-accelerates (just like in the 80s)…
Source: Bloomberg
Challenger job cuts in construction we the highest since 2008 putting downward pressure on wages.
Mortgage applications decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 5, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 20 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 19 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 28 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Mprtgage prepays fell less than daycoiunt.
But on;y high-coupn GNMAs prepayments sped up.
Finally, most out-of-the-money loans are now fully seasoned.
MMT is mostly magic! The Federal Reserve relies on “The Power of Magic” to fool people. For example, the massive increase in money printing following Covid and Biden’s disastrous economic policies (or FOLLICIES).
But there is also a fair amount of hypocrisy in the non-Austrian (e.g., mainstream, Keynesian, monetarist) critiques of MMT by mainstream economists. The truth is that most, if not all, of these economists share the same faulty presuppositions regarding what is euphemistically called “monetary policy.” The difference between mainstream and MMT economists is usually one of degree, not of kind.
Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman (1987–2006) and most definitely not an MMT proponent, made a very MMT-friendly claim: “The United States can pay any debt it has because it can always print money to do that, so there is zero probability of default.” While this is literally true, and points to the fact that the nominal debt and dollars are not the issue, it overlooks the distortionary consequences from this manipulation on the entire structure of production. Nevertheless, such a claim is often also repeated by proponents of MMT, as if it contains some magic missing ingredient to unlock greater stores of wealth.
In fact, MMT provides a warranted critique to other schools of economic thought that share an underlying premise while not arriving at the same conclusions. That assumption is so-called monetary policy—that governments via a central banking monopoly ought to be the sole entity that issues and controls money as a policy instrument. The dubious justifications for this are that it provides greater economic stability and expansion of money and credit according to the needs of trade. (Both of these are false, theoretically and empirically.) That said, MMT and mainstream economics both share this presupposition, assuming the validity of monetary policy.
As an example of presenting the broad mainstream on the definition of “monetary policy,” the popular financial encyclopedia Investopedia has previously stated the following:
“Monetary policy is a set of tools that a nation’s central bank has available to promote sustainable economic growth by controlling the overall supply of money that is available to the nation’s banks, its consumers, and its businesses. . . . The main weapon at its disposal is the nation’s money (italics added).”
The casual use of the word “weapon” is apt. In the hands of a state monopoly, money can indeed be “weaponized.” Inflation is the artificial expansion of money and credit that has the effect of transferring wealth from all money holders to the inflater(s). This may be done under the guise of “policy”—appearing official, orderly, and legitimate—but it involves elites in power taking actions that would otherwise be criminal behavior (e.g., fraud and counterfeiting).
Even without the ethical-philosophical discussion on whether changing the money supply is fraudulent, economically, the consequences remain. The inflation of money and fiduciary media (artificial credit) causes economic miscalculations and boom-bust cycles, distorts the structure of production, encourages capital consumption, undermines the actions of individuals, discourages saving, transfers wealth from the citizenry to the government and those who are politically connected, affects money’s purchasing power, and has a whole host of other unintended effects. All this, of course, is done under the legal cover of “policy” to achieve “stable economic growth,” as well as ambidextrously maintaining the false dichotomy between full employment and inflation.
Enter MMT, which takes “monetary policy” concepts to their logical conclusions, demonstrating the consequences in a striking way, and mainstream economists quickly want to disassociate themselves from this “crazy” new idea. People may not appreciate some MMTers claiming what they do about inflation, government spending, full employment, and debt; yet politicians and monetary bureaucrats sure seem to act like they believe MMT.
MMT correctly observes that government—through a balance of taxation, deficit spending, inflation, and monetary policy—attempts to centrally control an economy and does, in fact, direct real resources toward its ends. These are common policy tools of the state and central banks. MMT would just like to leverage these tools to a greater extent and direct them toward different ends. Likewise, Investopedia had further clarified:
“The Federal Reserve is in charge of monetary policy in the U.S. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has what is commonly referred to as a dual mandate: to achieve maximum employment while keeping inflation in check.”
Is this above statement not basically a statement of the goals of MMT? Other economic schools of thought that accept the underlying presuppositions of the necessity of monetary policy are not fundamentally in disagreement with MMT on this point; in fact, they are in fundamental agreement. This undermines the ability of these schools to effectively deliver a fundamental critique of MMT rather than just disagreements about how and to what extent monetary policy is to be utilized.
Economic criticism on these points—whether from MMT to the “other side” or from the “other side” to MMT—involves inconsistency. By condemning the other, they condemn themselves because they share core presuppositions. The existence of MMT is effectively a reductio ad absurdum of so-called monetary policy. MMT reasonably asks: What if we did more of the same? Obviously, the degree to which something is done can be critiqued without abandoning the whole thing, but the flawed assumptions are twofold: (1) that there is “just the right amount” of monetary policy and (2) that there are certain enlightened experts who know what it is and only need monopoly over the money supply to achieve it.
Whether MMT or otherwise, proponents of so-called monetary policy essentially believe that money is a policy instrument (or weapon) to be wielded by government elites to rearrange prices, resources, and the structure of production contrary to the demonstrated preferences of millions of individuals. Therefore, the United States has been under a monetary policy regime of “stabilizers” who have argued about how to implement a fundamentally flawed “policy” for over a century.
Whenever this fails and destabilizes the economy, we are treated to critics who blame the free market and deregulation and who want to use monetary policy to “run the economy” differently.
Instead, we ought to abandon the fraud of monetary policy and heed the words of F.A. Hayek concerning the results of monetary policy that led to America’s Great Depression:
“We must not forget that, for the last six or eight years [up to 1932] monetary policy all over the world has followed the advice of the stabilizers. It is high time that their influence, which has already done harm enough, should be overthrown.”
Mortgage rates have actually risen as The Fed has increased M2 Money printng. Like DARK magic.
Housing in the US is simply unaffordable. Particularly since home prices and mortgage rates have soared undier Biden.
.Owning a house is less affordable for average earners in the US than at anytime in 17 years.
The costs of a typical home — including mortgage payments, property insurance and taxes — consumed 35.1% of the average wage in the second quarter, the highest share since 2007 and up from 32.1% a year earlier, according to a new report from Attom.
Growth in expenses, along with mortgage rates hovering around 7%, have outpaced income gains as a persistent shortage of listings pushed the median home price to a record-high $360,000, Attom said. In more than a third of US markets, ownership costs ate up 43% of average local wages, far above the 28% considered to be a guideline for affordability.
The latest data “presents a clear challenge for homebuyers,” Rob Barber, chief executive officer of Attom, said in a statement. “It’s common for these trends to intensify during the spring buying season when buyer demand increases. However, the trends this year are particularly challenging for house hunters.”
Pricey markets in the West and Northeast had the biggest declines in affordability, including Orange and Alameda counties in California, and Brooklyn and Nassau County in New York.
Among the 589 counties analyzed, 582, or 98.8%, were less affordable in the second quarter than their historic affordability averages, Attom said.
On the mortgage side, mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 28, 2024.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week andwas 29 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
It seems everything Biden touches turns to stone. This used to be called “The Medusa Touch” but I changing that to “The Biden Touch.” And that includes housing. Or we can simply sing along with the late Jimmy Buffet and “Wasting aways again in Bidenville.”
And near 7% mortgage rates aren’t helping (as The Fed continues its fight against Bidenflation).
New home sales crashed 11.3% MoM (after April’s 4.7% drop was revised up to a 2.0% MoM rise). That is the biggest MoM drop since Sept 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the biggest YoY drop since Feb 2023, taking the SAAR down to the same level as it was in 2016…
Source: Bloomberg
Median new home price fell 0.9% YoY to $417,400 – lowest since April 2023 – (with the average selling price at $520,000) with a big downward revision for April from $433k to $417k!…
Source: Bloomberg
For the first time since June 2021, median existing home prices are above median new home prices…
Source: Bloomberg
As BofA warned yesterday:
“The US housing market is stuck, and we are not convinced it will become unstuck anytime soon. After a surge in housing activity during the pandemic, it has since retreated and stabilized. We view the forces that have reduced affordability, created a lock-in effect for homeowners, and limited housing activity will remain in place through our forecast horizon “
At the same time, the supply of available homes increased to 481,000, still the highest since 2008.
Source: Bloomberg
New home sales are catching down to the reality of mortgage rates continuing to hold above 7%…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems homebuilders finally gave up filling that gap in anticipation of an imminent Fed rate-cut to save the world.
Will Biden double down on his failed policies tonight in the CNN Presidential debate? Perhaps Joe can sing “Double Shot of Bidenomics.”
The jointly signed letter, first reported by Axios, says the economic agenda of U.S. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, is “vastly superior” to Trump’s, the former Republican president seeking a second term.
Read the source article from Reuters for the rest of the Marxist clown show. What Joe Stiglitz and other Leftist economists are cheerleading in the excessive post Covid spending spree that Biden and Congress went on. There is a different between a free market system and government directed spending, usually on large donors.
One source of crippling inflation under Biden is (wasteful) government spending, up 37.7% under Biden. Federal debt is up a nauseating 50% under Biden. These levels of spending and debt are NOT sustainable!
Another souce of inflation under Biden has been The Federal Reserve. With Covid. The Fed entered like gangbusters dropping their target rate to 25 basis points and massively increasing their balance sheet. Call this BIDEN 1. Then to squelch inflation, The Fed raised their target rate and slowly started to unwind the balance sheet. We saw a slowing of inflation. Nothing to do with Biden, although I am sure he will take credit for it at Thursday’s debate with Trump.
Inflation was growing rapidly in Biden 1, but inflation started to slow (Biden 2) as The Fed rapidly raised their target rate.
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April (“April” is a 3-month average of February, March and April closing prices). The pace of appreciation has slowed from the previous month, reflecting the toll of 7% mortgage rates and low inventory.
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain for April, down from a 6.5% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 8.0%, down from an 8.3% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.2%, dropping from a 7.5% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest annual gain among the 20 cities in April with a 10.3% increase this month, followed by New York and Chicago, with increases of 9.4% and 8.7%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank this month for the smallest year-over-year growth, with a 1.7% annual increase in April. … The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends decelerated from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 1.2%, 1.36% and 1.38%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite posted the same month-over-month increase of 0.3% and 0.5% respectively as last month, while the 20-City reported a monthly increase of 0.4%.
“For the second consecutive month, we’ve seen our National Index jump at least 1% over its previous all-time high,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “2024 is closely tracking the strong start observed last year, where March and April posted the largest rise seen prior to a slowdown in the summer and fall. Heading into summer, the market is at an all-time high, once again testing its resilience against the historically more active time of the year.
“Thirteen markets are currently at all-time highs and San Diego reigns supreme once again, topping annual returns for the last six months. The Northeast is the best performing market for the previous nine months, with New York rising 9.4% annually. Sustained outperformance of the Northeast market was last observed in 2011. For the decade that followed, the West and the South held the top posts for performance. It’s now been over a year since we’ve seen the top region come from the South or the West.
Of course, Fed Money Printing is helping drive home price growth. Perhaps too much!
Here is Jerome Powell, Chairman of The Fed Bubble Blowing Machine!!
In politics, it is usually discussed whether you are better off today than 4 years ago. Well, not if you are a renter or need to buy a home with mortgage financing.
If you are a homeowner, you are better off in terms of home equty. With the Case-Shiller National home price index up 34% since Biden’s selection as President. That is the good news.
The bad news? Property taxes are soaring and home insurance rates are up.
The worst news? The 30 year conforming mortgage rate is up 147% under Biden.
If you are a renter, you are worse off because of rising rents and the diffculty of transitioning to homeowership. Despite slowing, rental CPI is still growing at 5.3% YoY.
Well, perhaps bot a genuine surprise. We are aware that the US economy has been slowing as the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus from Covid is wearing out.
The economics surprise index slumped to -28.10, the lowest since 2022.
I feel like the US economy is experiening a Ragnarok change. With the giants (World Economic Forum/UN. etc) winning.
I am no forune teller, but this doesn’t look to good for old Joe (Biden).
Existing home sales fell -2.8% YoY in May.
US existing home sales fell for the third straight month in May (-0.7% MoM vs -1.0% exp). This left home sales down 2.8% YoY (YoY sales have not increased since July 2021)…
Source: Bloomberg
The total home sales SAAR is push back towards COVID lockdown lows once again at 4.1mm, but prices accelerated to a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
“Home prices reaching new highs are creating a wider divide between those owning properties and those who wish to be first-time buyers,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Eventually, more inventory will help boost home sales and tame home price gains in the upcoming months.”
And given that mortgage rates remain stubbornly above 7%, existing home sales show no signs of improving anytime soon…
Source: Bloomberg
The supply of homes on the market increased 18.5% from the same month last year to 1.28 million, but it’s still well below the level seen before the pandemic when mortgage rates were much lower.
Source: Bloomberg
About 67% of the homes sold were on the market for less than a month in May, roughly flat from the prior month, while 30% sold above the list price. Properties remained on the market for 24 days on average in May, compared with 26 days in April, NAR’s report said.
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