Housing Prices! Chicago Leads All Major Markets With 5.8% Annual Gain (Followed By New York At 5.0% And Cleveland At 4.1%, Tampa Recorded 4.2% Decline)

This is the opposite of the housing bubble from The Big Short where home prices in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Florida rose then crashed. Instead, the fastest growing cities are in the northeast and midwest.

The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.3% year over year in October 2025, easing from a 1.4% increase in September and coming in slightly above market expectations of a 1.1% gain. This represents the smallest annual increase since July 2023, reinforcing signs that the US housing market is settling into a much slower growth phase. Home price appreciation continues to trail consumer inflation. With October CPI estimated at around 3.1%, inflation-adjusted home values appear to have edged modestly lower over the past year.

Regional data point to a pronounced geographic rotation. Chicago now leads all major markets with a 5.8% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 4.1%. In contrast, Tampa recorded a 4.2% decline, the steepest among the 20 cities, and its 12th consecutive month of falling annual prices. Other former pandemic boom markets, especially in the Sun Belt, are seeing the sharpest declines, led by Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.1%).

Housing price growth has stalled even though M2 money growth is higher YoY.

On the silver front, silver regained losses yesterday, but increased margin requirements are causing losses again.

Today.

Housing Thunder? Pending Home Sales Surge 3.3% MoM (Highest Since Feb 2023)

Housing thunder? Or housing lightning!

Pending sales of existing homes in the US surged 3.3% MoM (more than the expected 0.9% MoM move) in November as a modest improvement in prices and mortgage rates encouraged buyers.

The gain was broad-based across regions and exceeded all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, but left the YoY change in sales somewhat stagnant on an NSA basis.

Signings have now increased for four straight months, matching a streak seen during the frenzied housing market of the pandemic.

The trade association’s report on Monday showed contract signings rose in each US region last month to their highest levels of the year. The West posted the largest increase, followed by the South, the nation’s largest home-selling region.

November’s surge dragged the Pending Home Sales Index to its highest since Feb 2023…

Bloomberg reports that the recent data point to the gradual improvement many economists see for the housing market into 2026.

Mortgage rates that were close to 7% in May have since settled in the 6.3% to 6.4% range, and home prices are growing at a much slower rate compared to last year.

That’s helped fuel small gains in contract closings in recent months. However, economists and industry experts have widely different expectations for next year.

In a recent survey of nine market analysts, estimates for the home resale market ranged from 1.7% to 14% sales growth, with the rosiest projection coming from NAR’s Yun.

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Gold And Silver: Silver Up 10% On Friday, Gold Outperforming Stock Market Over Last 30 Years (Silver Hit $79.2708!)

Gold and silver. Gold is now outperforming the Stock Market over the last 30 years.

Silver is up 10% on Friday.

Silver (XAG) just hit the $79.2708 price point.

Dino’s song. A shout-out to David Freiberg on the Gibson SG bass and John Cipollina on the Gibson SG guitar. I love the Gibson SG!

Simply Unaffordable? A Different View Of US Housing Prices (Gov’t Needs To Stop Manipulating The Housing Market)

Politicians love to scream about housing being simply unaffordable. Like mayor-elected Mandami in New York City. But the reality is that housing prices vary by city and there are more affordable cities than New York City to choose from. Federal policies should not be focused on letting people staying a particular city.

When we look at housing prices compared to average hourly earnings, we see housing prices rising with average hourly earnings … as expected.

If we look at year-over-year changes, we see the Covid bump in housing prices corresponding with the surge in Federal spending. But things have simmered down since the bump in 2020-2023.

My suggestion is for the Federal government to stop interfering in the housing market.

Little Tariff Effects! US Q3 Real GDP Growth At 3.5%, Real Estate Construction Growth Remains Negative

The US economy is goin’ home! The hysteria about tariffs is nonexistant.

Latest estimate: 3.5 percent — December 05, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 5, down from 3.8 percent on December 4. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.7 percent.

Unfortunately, residential and non-residential construction are negative as are imports.

Since The Federal Government Spending Spree Associated With Covid Ended, Median Household Income Has Declined, But So Have Home Prices

Roll out the barrel! As in Fed money printing.

How can the current housing disaster be fixed? One answer is to build more homes (made difficult by local government zoning and building policies). Another is increase household income. But Fed money printing is the easiest way to increase home prices.

Since the Federal government spending spree associated with Covid ended, median household income has declined. But so have home prices.

But in terms of home price growth compared to median household income, you can see that home price growth has slowed after the Covid spending spike, but so did median household income.

Pray that The Fed doesn’t resort to trying to fix the housing market. They will only make things worse.

US Home Prices Are Falling In A Majority Of US Cities (Immigration?)

The good news / bad news for immigration enforcement is that home prices are declining as immigration enforcement keeps rolling. Good news for new homebuyers. Bad news for recent homeowners.

US home prices in the 20 largest cities rose 0.13% MoM in September (very slightly better than the 0.1% rise expected) and up for the second month in a row (after falling for five straight months before). This MoM rise left the average priers up just 1.36% YoY – the lowest since July 2023.

Source: Bloomberg

Declining mortgage rates suggest a rebound in aggregate prices could be looming…

Regional performance reveals a tale of two markets.

Chicago continues to lead with a 5.5% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%. These Northeastern and Midwestern metros have sustained momentum even as broader market conditions soften.

At the opposite extreme, Tampa posted a 4.1% annual decline – the sharpest drop among tracked metros and its 11th consecutive month of negative annual returns. Phoenix (-2.0%), Dallas (-1.3%), and Miami (-1.3%) likewise remained in negative territory, highlighting particular weakness in Sun Belt markets that experienced the most dramatic pandemic-era price surges.

Home Prices are now falling (YoY) in a majority (11/20) of America’s largest cities…

“The geographic rotation is striking,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Meanwhile, traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to prepandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics.”

“Markets that were pandemic darlings—particularly in Florida, Arizona, and Texas—are now experiencing outright price declines.

And don’t forget the surge in home prices associated with increased M2 money printing around Covid.

Last one, promise 😁 pic.twitter.com/1luRsMFlo7
— Hollywood Horror Museum (@horrormuseum) November 25, 2025

Post Covid Blues! Mortgage Demand Decreased 5.2 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Demand Decreased 7 Percent, Refinance Demand Decreased 7 Percent As Mortgage Rates Increase)

Things are tough all over after Covid.

Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 14, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 125 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.37 percent from 6.34 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent.

Oyster Stew? Another Bad Government Idea To Fix Housing Affordability: The 50-year Mortgage (Interest Paid By Borrower Increases By 105%!)

Every time the government tries to make housing more affordable, they make the problem worse. Some people should rent and not fall for the government’s latest folly, the 50-year mortgage.

True, the 50-year mortgage would lower the monthly payment by several hundred dollars (see the following example where the monthly payment falls from $2,349 to $2,083. Or from $2,349 to $2,226 if the most rate increases with the longer mortgage life. BUT total interest paid increases 87% if the 50-year rate remains the same and 105% if the rate rises.

Principal paydown slows to a crawl with a 50-year mortgage, leaving the lender (or mortgage holder) exposed to higher risk if home prices fall.

Government housing policies remind me of the Curly versus the oyster stew skit. where Curly can’t catch the oyster. Yet keeps trying.

The 50-year mortgage reminds me of the ill-fated National Homeownership Strategy under Bill Clinton. By prdering all Federal housing finance entities to work with HUD, the National Homeownership Strategy helped crash the housing market (watch The Big Short!)

Housing After Covid! Declining Mortgage Originations And Rising Home Prices Making Affordability Difficult

Housing after Covid.

2020. A year that goes down in infamy. The Covid outbreak and the government’s insane overreaction to it. Masks and massive spending, driving up housing prices.

After 2020, mortgage originations plummeted while housing prices soared.