Harris Proposes $5 TRILLION In Taxes As Transition To Unemployment Soars (Tax Rates That Even Communist China Won’t Do!)

Harris and the DNC gave us an Orwellian picture of the future at the Democrat National Convention. Massive taxation ($5 TRILLION in crippling wealth transfers aka taxes). Of course, the top 1% will bear the brunt of the new taxes.

Kamala Harris’s tax increases include:

Small business tax rate hike to 39.6%

Small business owners pay business taxes on their individual tax return. The Harris endorsed budget raises the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% from the current 37%. 

Corporate tax rate higher than the EU and communist China

Kamala Harris wants to hike the current 21% federal corporate income tax rate to 28%, higher than communist China’s 25% and the EU average of 21%, her campaign said Monday.

The Kamala Harris federal 28% rate is higher than the Asia average corporate tax rate of 19.8%, the EU average of 21%, the world average of 23.5%, and the OECD average of 23.7%. (See the Tax Foundation’s comprehensive listing here.)

The Harris federal 28% rate is also higher than Canada (26.2%), the UK (25%) Sweden (20.6%), and even Russia (20%), Afghanistan (20%), and Iraq (15%).

After adding state corporate income taxes, the combined federal-state tax burden in most states will easily exceed 30% under the Harris plan. 

The Harris rate hurts the USA vs. China with its 25% rate. And note: Industry sectors of strategic use to the Chinese government pay an even lower rate of 15%.

American workers will bear the brunt of Harris’s corporate tax increase.

The non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation affirmed in congressional testimony that corporate tax rate hikes hit “labor, laborers.” A study compiled by the Tax Foundation found that “labor bears between 50 percent and 100 percent of the burden of the corporate income tax, with 70 percent or higher the most likely outcome.”

Capital gains and dividends tax more than twice as high as communist China

Here is a direct quote from the Biden-Harris budget: “Together, the proposals would increase the top marginal rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends to 44.6 percent.

Yes, you read that correctly: A Kamala Harris capital gains and dividends tax rate of 44.6%

China’s capital gains tax rate is 20%. Is it wise to have higher taxes than China?

Under the Harris plan, the combined federal-state capital gains tax exceeds 50% in many states. California will face a combined federal-state rate of 57.8%, New Jersey 55.3%, Oregon at 54.5%, Minnesota at 54.4%, and New York state at 53.4%.

Unconstitutional wealth tax on unrealized gains

The Harris-endorsed budget calls for an annual 25 percent minimum tax on the unrealized gains of individuals with income and assets exceeding $100 million. Once in place, it won’t be long before the threshold is lowered to hit more and more Americans.

Americans overwhelmingly oppose taxes on unrealized gains, by a factor of three to one, including 76% of independents. Americans know that a “gain” isn’t “real” until it is actually realized, in hand.

This Harris tax is similar to the wealth taxes pushed by radical progressives such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Capital gains taxes should only be paid when a gain is realized. Harris’s wealth tax would break with current tax policy and impose tax Americans based on the value of an asset on a particular arbitrary date.

This unprecedented tax would give even more power to the IRS, encourage taxpayers to move assets overseas, and will only expand to hit millions of Americans over time. 

A second Death Tax by taking away stepped-up basis when parents die

Harris wants to impose a second Death Tax by taking away stepped-up basis when parents die. This would result in a mandatory capital gains tax at death — separate from, and in addition to — the current Death Tax.

This will impose a steep tax increase and paperwork nightmare for small businesses, farms, and families. 

The Biden-Harris administration has been pursuing this for a while. In a piece titled “This Biden Tax Hike Hike Will Hit Mom & Pop Hard” tax lawyer Robert W. Wood writes:

Under current tax law, assets that pass directly to your heirs get a step-up in basis for income tax purposes. It doesn’t matter if you pay estate tax when you die or not. For generations, assets held at death get a stepped-up basis—to market value—when you die. Small businesses count on this.

Wood notes the “proposal would tax an asset’s unrealized appreciation at transfer. You mean Junior gets taxed whether or not he sells the business? Essentially, yes. The idea that you could build up your small business and escape death tax and income tax to pass it to your kids is on the chopping block.”

As reported previously by CNBC:

“When someone dies and the asset transfers to an heir, that transfer itself will be a taxable event, and the estate is required to pay taxes on the gains as if they sold the asset,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. 

Harris’s proposal to take away stepped-up basis has already been tried, and it failed: In 1976 congress eliminated stepped-up basis but it was so complicated and unworkable it was repealed before it took effect.

As noted in a July 3, 1979 New York Times article, it was “impossibly unworkable.”

NYT wrote:

Almost immediately, however, the new law touched off a flood of complaints as unfair and impossibly unworkable. So many, in fact, that last year Congress retroactively delayed the law’s effective date until 1980 while it struggled again with the issue.

As noted by the NYT, intense voter blowback ensued:

Not only were there protests from people who expected the tax to fall on them — family businesses and farms, in particular — bankers and estate lawyers also complained that the rule was a nightmare of paperwork.

Global tax cartel with 21% minimum tax rate

Harris wants to yoke the U.S. to an international tax cartel and impose a 21% global minimum tax on American businesses. This would be a devastating blow to U.S. competitiveness and sovereignty and eliminate healthy tax competition between countries. 

The Biden-Harris administration has for years pursued a misguided international tax regime under the control of the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). The OECD wants to stamp out tax competition. 

Harris’s plan would go well beyond the OECD’s framework for a 15% global minimum tax and instead increase the rate to 21%. And the tax rate will only go up from there since bloated governments won’t have to compete. 

Donald Trump had wisely kept the U.S. away from the tax cartel.

Quadrupled tax on stock buybacks — a Harris tax that will hit every American with a 401K or IRA or union pension

Democrats imposed a 1% stock buyback tax in the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act. Now, the Harris endorsed budget calls for quadrupling the tax, the burden of which hits every American with a 401k, IRA, or union pension.

A record share of 401(k) account holders took early withdrawals from their accounts last year for financial emergencies including preventing foreclosures, evictions and paying medical and tuition bills, according to the Wall Street Journal

Raising taxes and restricting buybacks would further harm the 58 percent of Americans who own stock and more than 60 million workers invested in a 401(k). An additional 16.14 million Americans are invested in 529 education savings accounts.

Quadrupling the buyback tax, would stifle U.S. employers and put Americans at a competitive disadvantage vs. China, which does not have a buyback tax.

30% federal excise tax on electricity used in cryptocurrency mining

The Harris-backed budget imposes a 30% excise tax on the cost of electricity used to mine digital assets. The Treasury Department’s claims that mining has “negative environmental effects and can have environmental justice implications as well as increase energy prices.” Another excuse to raise taxes. It also neglects the fact that private sector innovation is already reducing any preexisting de minimis emissions by switching to “proof of stake” instead of “proof of work” consensus mechanisms.

Applies the wash sale rules to digital assets

The Harris-backed budget would apply the wash sale rule to digital assets. Under current IRS rules, a wash sale occurs when an investor sells “stock or securities” at a loss, and either 30 days before or after the sale, purchases a “substantially identical” stock or security. The IRS prohibits the deduction of losses when a wash sale occurs. The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates that this change would increase the tax burden on digital asset transactions by roughly $17 billion.

$37 billion tax on American energy

The Harris-endorsed budget calls for a host of new taxes on oil and gas companies totaling $37 billion. This includes the repealing of expensing for intangible drilling costs (IDC), the use of percent depletion for oil and gas well and additional excise taxes on crude oil production. These tax hikes will be passed on to consumers in the former higher gas prices and energy bills. This tax hike on American energy comes on the heels of Democrats passing roughly $20 billion worth of new energy taxes included in the Inflation Reduction Act.

32% increase to Medicare taxes

Harris endorsed raising Medicare taxes from the current rate of 3.8 percent to 5 percent for individuals making over $400,000 per year, roughly a 32 percent tax hike. The plan reportedly broadens the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) to apply to non-passive business income and Harris would also increase the hospital insurance (HI) payroll tax from 0.9 percent to 2.1 percent for individuals earning over $400,000.

Carried interest tax on capital gains

Harris would tax carried interest as ordinary income for individuals earning over $400,000. While the Left labels carried interest as a “loophole” it is actually based on longstanding tax principles. Raising taxes on carried interest capital gains should be rejected. It is a terrible tax policy that would harm economic growth, reduce jobs, and reduce the returns of public pension funds across the country.

Even Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) rejected Democrats’ attempt to raise taxes on income from carried interest by blocking this proposal from being included in the Inflation and Reduction Act.

This tax hike would hit private equity, venture capital, real estate partnerships, and their portfolio companies which together account for over 25 million American jobs. In response, firms would downsize and decrease investment, causing both a loss of jobs and a reduction in the returns investors see.

$24 billion retirement tax

The Harris proposal calls for capping the retirement plan benefits of certain individuals. The White House projects this limitation on retirement benefits will raise $24 billion in taxes from individuals with retirement account balances above $10 million and earnings above $400,000.

Real estate tax hike on Like-Kind exchanges

Harris backs raising taxes on capital gains from real estate transaction by limiting what are knows as 1031 Like-Kind Exchanges to $500,000 in gains.

Under current tax rules, real estate investors can exchange real property used for business for similar real property and defer capital gains tax. Harris’s proposed changes to this tax treatment will hurt individuals and farmers.

An even further-supersized IRS

If you thought Harris and congressional Democrats had already supersized the IRS enough, think again. The Harris budget plan shovels another $104.3 billion to the agency. 

Erodes taxpayer rights by making it easier for IRS agents to stack up questionable penalties against taxpayers

Last year the Biden-Harris IRS got caught illegally backdating penalty documents and signatures in U.S. Tax Court in order to run up the bills on taxpayers. The court caught the IRS lying. U.S. Tax Court is generally very deferential to IRS neglect but in this case the court was rightly furious.

While testifying to congress in late 2023, IRS Commissioner Werfel declined to say whether anyone has been fired for this practice. It is suspected the backdating incident was not an isolated occurrence within the IRS. Another indication that the IRS has a severe accountability problem that is only going to get worse.

Due to reforms enacted by Republicans in 1998, IRS agents are currently required to get written approval from their immediate supervisor before imposing penalties on taxpayers. This is designed to protect taxpayers from agent chicanery. 

Congressional investigators discovered years of abuse by IRS agents running up the penalty score as an intimidation tactic against taxpayers. Agents would use the threat of penalties as a bargaining chip. The IRS has a history of targeting people who do not have the means to fight back, and unethical agents at employee review time could point to all the penalties they imposed on people who perhaps did not deserve it. So, in 1998 congressional Republicans enacted a taxpayer protection (Section 6751) which requires agents to get personal written approval from their immediate supervisor before sending written penalty letters to taxpayers.

But the Biden-Harris budget allows IRS agents to shop around for sympathetic supervisors anywhere in the building. Harris also wants to scrap the written approval requirement altogether for many penalty scenarios. Agents will abuse this and taxpayers will be the victim. 

From the Biden-Harris budget: “In addition, the proposal would expand approval authority from an ‘immediate supervisor’ to any supervisory official, including those that are at higher levels in the management chain or others responsible for review of a potential penalty.”

Won’t be long before agents just go directly to the taxpayer-hostile supervisor on, say, the fourth floor who will sign off on anything. Good luck to taxpayers without the resources to defend themselves in court against an agency with a near-unlimited budget.

Of course, what will the new taxes be spent on? That is REALLY scary. Healthcare for illegal immigrants? Wealth transfer to large donors??

Well, it is already getting nasty on the employment front with jobs transitioning to unemployment at a rapid rate.

Scary! US Commerce Sec Gina Raimondo Didn’t Even Know About BLS Overstating Payroll Gains By Almost 1 Million (Club Of Incompetence)

The scary thing about the BLS overstating job gains by Biden/Harris by almost 1 million jobs is that US Commerce Secretary Gina “The Goofball” Raimondo didn’t even know about the Philly Fed report.

Back in March, when most of Wall Street and economists still believed the lies spewed forth by the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics, which intentionally uses inaccurate, rushed “data” from the Establishment survey which is meant to pad sentiment and make the economy appear far stronger than it is for propaganda purposes (as one can see by the constant monthly downward revisions), we did an in-depth analysis looking at the actual, “uncooked” numbers published by the Philadelphia Fed preview of the annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages employment revision, and warned our readers that actual US payrolls are overstated by at least 800,000.

Specifically, we concluded that “the BLS had overstated payrolls by 800,000 through Dec 2023 (and more if one were to extend the data series into 2024)” and added that “it’s truly statistically remarkable how every time the data error is in favor of a stronger, if fake, economy.”

Furthermore, we also noted that the revision “also means that far from the stellar 230K average monthly increase in payrolls in 2023, which the White House would spin time and again as direct evidence of the benefits of Bidenomics, the true average monthly payroll increase in 2023 was only 130K! The full monthly change in payrolls as originally reported by the BLS (in green) and the actual monthly number, as per the QCEW (in red) is shown below.”

This matters because as we reminded our followers this weekend, today at 10am, the BLS would publish its annual nonfarm payrolls benchmark revision where it would unveil as , which it did (with the usual 35 minute delay because that’s the kind of service $35 trillion in debt buys you), and it confirmed that we were right almost to the dot, because as the BLS unveiled in its CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement, “the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates an adjustment to March 2024 total nonfarm employment of -818,000 (-0.5 percent)” or just above the 800,000 was said to expect back in March.

The revision is mainly due to the highest-paying sectors: i.e., professional services -358k, leisure -150k, and manufacturing -115k. Not at all surprising: government was revised +1,000.

As an aside, while the data were scheduled to be released at 10 a.m. in Washington but didn’t appear on the BLS’s website for more than a half hour later. A spokesperson for the agency didn’t answer Bloomberg’s questions as to why the figures were delayed, but we have some pretty good guesses about the panic that gripped the BLS as they realized they needed a green lights from the propaganda ministry before going live with this number.

How big is the 818,000 revision in context? As the chart below shows, the 2024 revision was the biggest in the past decade, and the second biggest on record, with just the 824K downward revision in 2009 just (barely) greater.

The revisions confirm that – as we had been warning for much of the past year – the labor market started moderating much sooner than flawed conventional wisdom thought. It wasn’t until earlier this month that markets and economists grew concerned with the release of the July jobs report. That set off alarm bells with a weak pace of hiring and a fourth month of rising unemployment, but other metrics like jobless claims and vacancies have suggested a more moderate slowdown.

Putting it all together, we now know – as we reported first back in March – that the labor market is, and was, far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls would end up “missing” when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS’ woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls “data”, and if one looks back the the monthly gains across most of 2023, one gets not 218K jobs added on average every month but rather 150K, a 31% decline. Needless to say, the market would look very different if it had known that effectively all the payroll “beats” of the past year would be deleted!

Of course, none of that paints Bidenomics, or Kamalanomics, or whatever it is now, in a flattering picture, because while one can at least pretend that issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days to add 3 million jos per year is somewhat acceptable, learning that that ridiculous amount buys 800,000 jobs less is hardly the endorsement that the White House needs. On the flip side, pretending that the US had added an additional 800,000 jobs in the past year is precisely what Biden, and now, Kamala would have wanted to generate the kind of buzz and momentum that somehow translates into the “greatest economy ever”… at least until it is all revised away as the admin’s lies finally wash away.

What is the implication for the market? Well, as UBS trader Leo He correctly notes, “the Fed is well aware of nonfarm payrolls (establishment survey) overstating the job market, but unemployment rate (household survey) underestimating the job market” and he goes on to quote Governor Bowman’s speech on Tuesday:

“There are also risks that the labor market has not been as strong as the payroll data have been indicating, and it appears that the recent rise in unemployment may be exaggerating the degree of cooling in labor markets. The Q4 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) report suggests that job gains have been consistently overstated in the establishment survey since March of last year, while the household survey unemployment data have become less accurate as response rates have appreciably declined since the pandemic. The rise in the unemployment rate this year largely reflects weaker hiring, as job searchers entering the labor force are taking longer to find work, and layoffs remain low. It is also likely that some temporary factors contributed to the soft July employment report. The rise in the unemployment rate in July was largely accounted for by workers who are experiencing a temporary layoff and are more likely to be rehired in coming months. Hurricane Beryl also likely contributed to weaker job gains, as the number of workers not working due to bad weather increased significantly last month.”

At the end of the day, all this does is cement the Fed’s 25bps rate cut next month.

As for broader socio-political implications, the reactions are already pouring in with those on the blue side of the spectrum pretending nothing happened, while those on the other side of the aisle raging at what has now become clear propaganda by the highly politicized Department of Labor. To wit, here is RFK, Jr., proposed VP candidate Nicole Shanahan slamming the BLS, and using our data to do so:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has long been used as a tool of propaganda by the executive branch. Here’s how: they distort definitions, manipulate data, exclude discouraged workers, and revise past reports to create narratives that fit the agenda of whichever administration is in power. This skews the actual economic picture and misleads citizens about the true state of our economy. It’s like a game of musical chairs, and neither side wants to be caught standing when the music stops. The Constitution doesn’t grant the government the authority to track unemployment statistics, so why do we even have this agency? Perhaps it’s time to get rid of it. Their $750M budget could surely be put to better use, and private companies already track U.S. unemployment for free. Win-win.

We agree: back in March we concluded our article, which predicted today’s revision with near 100% accuracy, by warning that the staggering size of the revised data “is also why nobody in the mainstream media – which is now nothing more than the PR smokescreen for the Biden puppetmasters, the government and the deep state – will ever mention this report.”

Today it will be more difficult for the propaganda press to ignore it.

At least she should speak in front of a Communist Chinese flag! Her true master.

Economic Vertigo! US Interest Payments Expected To Keep Rising Under Marxist Harris (And Why The Fed MUST Try To Lower Interest Rates)

After watching the Democrat hate fest last night (Aka, the Democrat National Convention), I was not shocked that the DNC platform looked like a playbook to destroy the US economy. High taxes, endless spending, more regulations, etc. Not a word about the staggering side of the US debt load … with Harris’ economic plan projected to add a whopping $25 trillon in debt to the already massive $35+ trillion debt load.

And not a mention that US interest payments on the national debt already exceeds defense spending. And is booming!

Of course, Harris’s economic vision is a continutation of Biden’s disastrous visions (which are Obama’s vision of US obliteration). Most politicians in Congress are millionaires (including Bernie Sanders) and won’t suffer from their insane “progressive” policies. Watching last night’s DNC hatefest was like watching nasty 2nd graders having a party.

Of course, the drove of anti-American, anti-properity speakers spewing venom (I hate Hillary’s flat-tone speaking style) like Hillary, Jaime Raskin (aka, Rasputin), AOC, etc. all failed to acknowledge to acknowledge the already monstrous size of the US debt ($35+ trillion) or the massive size of the unfunded promises ($218+ TRILLION). Of course not.

The handle the staggering interest payments that will crowd out other spending, The Federal Reserve will be forced to lower rates.

Of course, Democrats will wheel out “economists” like Robert Reich who say that the debt doesn’t matter.

That’s Biden/Harrisnomics! Leading Economic Indicators Down For 29th Straight Month (Outside Of Great Financial Crisis, The Worst Decline In LEI Since Mid ’70s!!!)

That’s Biden/Harrisnomics!

US Leading Economic Indicators down for their 29th straight month – at a level worse than the trough of COVID lockdowns…

…and the head of The Conference Board says ‘nothing to see here’…

The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

For context, outside of the great financial crisis, this is the worst decline in LEI since the mid ’70s!!!

And what is behind the ‘no recession’ call… US equity strength!!

Thank The Feral Reserve for the equity spike!

So, to summarize – almost all the macro data signals weakening growth for years… but because stocks are up (and credit spreads down), there’s no recession anywhere on the horizon!!??

July Housing Starts Drop -6.8% MoM, Lowest Since Covid Economic Lockdowns Of 2020

Another bad housing report for July, this time its housing starts.

Housing starts declined in July to the lowest level since the Covid economic lockdowns.

Housing starts fell -6.8% in July.

On a YoY basis, housing starts fell -14.8% YoY.

“It’s Communism”: Kamala’s First Economic Plan Proposes Price Controls To “Combat Inflation”

After the unoriginal Vice President Kamala Harris stole former President Trump’s proposed ‘no tax on tips’ policy, she’s at it again with yet another recycled idea. This time, she’s echoing President Biden’s actions and rhetoric to crack down on sky-high food prices by proposing the first-ever federal ban on “corporate price-gouging in the food and grocery industries”—a move that reeks of socialism.

“There’s a big difference between fair pricing in competitive markets, and excessive prices unrelated to the costs of doing business,” the Harris campaign wrote in a statement, adding, “Americans can see that difference in their grocery bills.”

The Harris campaign said the vice president will unveil the new federal proposed ban on Friday at a campaign rally in the battleground state of North Carolina as part of a broader economic policy platform. The proposal will ensure food companies can’t exploit consumers to increase profits, according to CBS News, citing Harris-Walz campaign officials.

Harris’ policy speech will also call on the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys to examine corporations violating price-fixing rules. Her remarks are expected to echo Biden’s actions and rhetoric, especially with his war against meat processing companies that he alleges are responsible for higher burger prices at the supermarket.

VP Harris’ campaign argues that lowering Americans’ costs is a function of socialist-style price controls. Yet this is the quickest way to understand that Harris’ economic team has no actual understanding of inflation.

Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni explained, “Here’s your “price gouging” narrative: average costs paid by businesses have risen just as much as costs charged to consumers – if businesses are being “greedy,” they’re doing it all wrong…” 

Instead of curbing out-of-control government spending, which debt rises $1 trillion every 100 days, and understanding that monetary inflation driven by the Federal Reserve’s money creation is the root cause of inflation, Harris deflects the actual problem: The Fed. She instead goes after big corporations for ‘illegal price gouging.’ 

Here’s a snippet of Money Metals Midweek Memo’s Mike Maharrey commenting on Harris’ proposed price-fixing ban on big food companies: 

The second “dumb” idea Maharrey discussed came from Vice President Kamala Harris, who was recently asked about her plan to combat inflation. Maharrey criticized her response, which he described as “word salad,” pointing out that she merely acknowledged the problem without offering any concrete solutions. Instead, she promised to take on “big corporations” engaging in “illegal price gouging,” corporate landlords, and big pharma.

Maharrey argued that Harris’s approach misses the root cause of inflation, which is monetary inflation driven by the Federal Reserve’s money creation. He cited the July budget deficit data, revealing that the Biden administration spent another $574 billion in just one month, running a $243 billion deficit. Maharrey emphasized that inflation is not caused by corporate greed but by the government’s excessive spending and borrowing.

“Price inflation is a symptom of monetary inflation, which has everything to do with money creation by the Federal Reserve,” Maharrey explained. He warned that Harris’s proposed policies, including price controls, would likely lead to shortages and exacerbate the problem rather than solve it.

Kamalanomics = ‘communist economics’ as some X users describe… 

“We are no longer talking about hypothetical communism, we are talking about two straight up communists who want to institute a federal price ban on food and a federal minimum wage that is going to make every corporation go out of business.

Voting for communism is not the solution to your precious feelings.”

Grocery stores have a 3-4% profit margin if they are lucky.

Kama Kameleon! Fed Loses Record Amount, Bankrupty Filings (Chap 11) Highest In 13 Years, Foreign Investors Pulling Out Of China

Kama Kameleon.

Kamala Harris, despite being VP for almost 4 years, is going to annouce her plans for taming inflation. Why doesn’t she do it now?? What Harris can’t control is The Federal Reserve that is losing money at breakneck speed.

Here is The Fed’s balance sheet.

I shudder to think what Harris will propose to solve the highest bankrupty (Chap 11) rate in 13 years. Probably more Bidenomics (big wealth transfers to large corporations/donors).

Meanwhile, foreigns pulled a record amount of funds from ailing China.

Kamala Harris will say anything to get elected, then fall back on her Communist agenda.

VIX Vapo Rub! VIX Explodes Last Monday (Only Two Other VIX Episodes Higher Than 60)

I have another use for VIX … to wipe out stock market gains. VIX is the S&P 500 volatility index, also known as “The Fear Index.”

Over the last 35yrs, the whole life of VIX history, there have only been 2 prior episodes of VIX trading >60: The 1st was during GFC, the collapse of Lehman, the 2nd episode occurred during Covid and we had a 3rd occurrence: that was last Monday.

VIX … wiping out stock returns!

Trouble With The Curve! US Yield Curve Rises Above 0 Slope While Mortgage Rates Fall

We know several things about the yield curve. First, it goes negative before recessions. Second, it is related to the inverse of The Fed’s target rate (blue line).

How about the US mortgage rate? Generally, US Mortgage rates are inverse to the 10Y-3M yield curve, but lately the US mortgage rate (pink circle) have declined with the 10Y-3M yield curve.

The yield curve does forecast recessions, but is unreliable in forecasting mortgage rate movements.