Every time the government tries to make housing more affordable, they make the problem worse. Some people should rent and not fall for the government’s latest folly, the 50-year mortgage.
True, the 50-year mortgage would lower the monthly payment by several hundred dollars (see the following example where the monthly payment falls from $2,349 to $2,083. Or from $2,349 to $2,226 if the most rate increases with the longer mortgage life. BUT total interest paid increases 87% if the 50-year rate remains the same and 105% if the rate rises.
Principal paydown slows to a crawl with a 50-year mortgage, leaving the lender (or mortgage holder) exposed to higher risk if home prices fall.
2020. A year that goes down in infamy. The Covid outbreak and the government’s insane overreaction to it. Masks and massive spending, driving up housing prices.
After 2020, mortgage originations plummeted while housing prices soared.
US home prices took off like a scalded cat after the Federal government went on a massive spending spree in 2020.
The US mortgage market is “livin’ on a prayer.” As a result, former homebuilder and current FHFA Director Bill Pulter has suggested 2 mortgage products to make US homes more “affordable”, adding to the legacy of stupid government policies to increase homeownership.
But first, current mortgage demand. Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 7, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 31 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 147 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Now on to Pulte’s stupid mortgage proposals.
Pulte Doubles Down After 50-Year Backlash, Proposes “Layaway Mortgage”
The 50-year mortgage is a stupid idea. True, it can reduce the monthly mortgage payment by several hundred dollars. But it extends the life of the mortgage from 30 to 50 years, keeping the outstanding mortgage balance elevated for longer, exposing the lender (or mortgage owner) to greater losses in the case of default. Not surprising since the duration risk of a 50-year mortgage is greater than on a 30-year mortgage. Who is going to hold these mortgages??
So, Pulte hearing that the mortgage market thinks this is a stupid idea, introduced another stupid mortgage idea: the “layaway mortgage” where buyers make payments for 5-10 years before they’re allowed to move into the home. This is a variation of “rent to own.”
Under Pulte’s Layaway Mortgage program:
▪️ Buyers select a home and begin making monthly payments immediately ▪️ They continue paying for 5-10 years (the “layaway period”) ▪️ During this time, they cannot live in the home, modify it, or even visit without an appointment ▪️ After the layaway period ends, buyers can move in and begin their 40-year mortgage ▪️ If they miss a payment during layaway, they forfeit everything and the home goes back on the market.
So, in other word, a 50-year mortgage (40+10 layaway).
Note: Japan used to offer 100-year mortgages during their housing bubble, but now 35-year mortgages are more common.
The September drop in mortgage rates is sparking the biggest boom in refinancings since the pandemic. Mortgage-refinancing applications have surged above the decade average, despite that period including the record-breaking refi boom of 2020-21 when rates fell to all-time lows. Purchase-loan demand has also rebounded to its best for this time of year since 2022, yet remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.
Housing starts:
Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.
Housing permits?
Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024
Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.
Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”
The Federal Reserve has created massive asset bubbles in financial markets. And the “tariff war” between the US and China. Since April 8, 2020, the S&P 500 index is up 81% while The Federal Reserve has printed a staggering amount of money as M2 Money is up 27.4% over the same period.
So, it is not surprising (except to Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy) that the stock market has declined with China’s childish petulance over Trump’s tariffs. While Trump levied a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, China counterattacked with a 84% tariff on US goods.
Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rate on Multifamily (Apartment) loans soared to highest rate since 2000. Since it is as of January 31, 2025, you can’t blame this on Donald Trump (although I am sure they will try).
Of course, home prices and rents soared under Biden. Home prices rose 37% under Biden and rents rose 25%. Simply unaffordable.
The US economy is gradually recovering from Bidenomics (government/donor dictated spending). Mortgage applications increased 11.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 7, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 11.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous week and was 90 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Mortgage rates declined for the sixth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate dropping to 6.67 percent, the lowest level since October 2024. As a result, applications increased over the week and were up 31 percent from a year ago.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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