Keep On Printing? National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November As M2 Money Growth Slows

Keep on printing money. It seems that home price growth requires The Fed to keep printing money.

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (“November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain In November 2025

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.4% annual gain for November, in line with the previous month.

Real home values declined as consumer inflation (2.7%) outpaced the National Index gain (1.4%) by 1.3 percentage points.

Regional divergence persisted: Midwestern and Northeastern markets led by Chicago (+5.7%) and New York (+5.0%) posted gains, while Sun Belt cities including Tampa (–3.9%), Phoenix (–1.4%), Dallas (–1.4%), and Miami (–1.0%) saw declines.
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“Regional patterns continue to illustrate a stark divergence. Chicago leads all cities for a second consecutive month with a 5.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. These historically steady Midwestern and Northeastern markets have maintained respectable gains even as overall conditions cool. By contrast, Tampa home prices are 3.9% lower than a year ago – the steepest decline among the 20 cities, extending that market’s 13-month streak of annual drops. Other Sun Belt boomtowns remain under pressure as well: Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%) each continue to see year-over-year declines, a dramatic turnaround from their pandemic-era strength.

“Monthly price changes were mixed but leaned negative in November, underscoring persistent softness. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw prices decline from October (versus 16 declines in the previous month). Only a handful of markets – including Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, New York, and Phoenix – eked out slight gains before seasonal adjustment. After accounting for typical seasonal slowing, the National Index inched up just 0.4% for the month, indicating that price momentum remains muted.
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The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.4% annual gain for November. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.0%, up from a 1.9% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, up from a 1.3% increase in the previous month.
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The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a drop of 0.1% and the 20-City Composite Index fell 0.03%, while the 10-City Composite Index increased 0.1%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index reported a monthly increase of 0.4%, and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month gains of 0.5%.

Mortgage Market After Covid! Soaring Home Prices And Mortgage Rates Led To Collapse Of Mortgage Originations

Like The Talking Heads song “Life During Wartime,” we are dealing with the mortgage market affer Covid. What happened? Mortgage originations plunged after mortgage rates (red line) soared.

In addition, insane Federal spending levels caused housing prices to soar.

‘Stay warm!

US Q4 Real GDP Forecast Is 5.4% As Trumps Orders GSEs To Buy $200 BILLION In Mortgage Bonds (Exports Rising At 6.1% And Imports Falling -9.4%)

It looks like President Trump wants ANOTHER Federal Reserve. He has ordered the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) to purchase $200 BILLION in mortgage bonds in an attempt to lower mortgage rates. Puzzling since real GDP growth is soaring.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 8, up from 2.7 percent on January 5. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.4 percent to 3.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.30 percentage points to 1.97 percentage points.

The 5.4% real GDP forecast is largely due to exports rising at 6.1% and imports falling -9.4%.

Looks like Trump’s tariffs are working.

Oyster Stew? Another Bad Government Idea To Fix Housing Affordability: The 50-year Mortgage (Interest Paid By Borrower Increases By 105%!)

Every time the government tries to make housing more affordable, they make the problem worse. Some people should rent and not fall for the government’s latest folly, the 50-year mortgage.

True, the 50-year mortgage would lower the monthly payment by several hundred dollars (see the following example where the monthly payment falls from $2,349 to $2,083. Or from $2,349 to $2,226 if the most rate increases with the longer mortgage life. BUT total interest paid increases 87% if the 50-year rate remains the same and 105% if the rate rises.

Principal paydown slows to a crawl with a 50-year mortgage, leaving the lender (or mortgage holder) exposed to higher risk if home prices fall.

Government housing policies remind me of the Curly versus the oyster stew skit. where Curly can’t catch the oyster. Yet keeps trying.

The 50-year mortgage reminds me of the ill-fated National Homeownership Strategy under Bill Clinton. By prdering all Federal housing finance entities to work with HUD, the National Homeownership Strategy helped crash the housing market (watch The Big Short!)

Housing After Covid! Declining Mortgage Originations And Rising Home Prices Making Affordability Difficult

Housing after Covid.

2020. A year that goes down in infamy. The Covid outbreak and the government’s insane overreaction to it. Masks and massive spending, driving up housing prices.

After 2020, mortgage originations plummeted while housing prices soared.

US home prices took off like a scalded cat after the Federal government went on a massive spending spree in 2020.

Housing after Covid.

US Purchase Mortgage Demand Increased 3% From Previous Week (Pulte’s 50Y And Layaway Mortgages??)

The US mortgage market is “livin’ on a prayer.” As a result, former homebuilder and current FHFA Director Bill Pulter has suggested 2 mortgage products to make US homes more “affordable”, adding to the legacy of stupid government policies to increase homeownership.

But first, current mortgage demand. Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 7, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 31 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 147 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Now on to Pulte’s stupid mortgage proposals.

Pulte Doubles Down After 50-Year Backlash, Proposes “Layaway Mortgage”

The 50-year mortgage is a stupid idea. True, it can reduce the monthly mortgage payment by several hundred dollars. But it extends the life of the mortgage from 30 to 50 years, keeping the outstanding mortgage balance elevated for longer, exposing the lender (or mortgage owner) to greater losses in the case of default. Not surprising since the duration risk of a 50-year mortgage is greater than on a 30-year mortgage. Who is going to hold these mortgages??

So, Pulte hearing that the mortgage market thinks this is a stupid idea, introduced another stupid mortgage idea: the “layaway mortgage” where buyers make payments for 5-10 years before they’re allowed to move into the home. This is a variation of “rent to own.”

Under Pulte’s Layaway Mortgage program:

▪️ Buyers select a home and begin making monthly payments immediately
▪️ They continue paying for 5-10 years (the “layaway period”)
▪️ During this time, they cannot live in the home, modify it, or even visit without an appointment
▪️ After the layaway period ends, buyers can move in and begin their 40-year mortgage
▪️ If they miss a payment during layaway, they forfeit everything and the home goes back on the market.

So, in other word, a 50-year mortgage (40+10 layaway).

Note: Japan used to offer 100-year mortgages during their housing bubble, but now 35-year mortgages are more common.

Drop In Mortgage Rates Fueling Mortgage Demand (Purchase Demand Nearing 2022 Levels)

The September drop in mortgage rates is sparking the biggest boom in refinancings since the pandemic. Mortgage-refinancing applications have surged above the decade average, despite that period including the record-breaking refi boom of 2020-21 when rates fell to all-time lows. Purchase-loan demand has also rebounded to its best for this time of year since 2022, yet remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

Purchase demand (applications) nearing 2022 levels.

While not mortgage-related, gold is soaring!!

Thanks to Bloomberg’s Erica Adelberg for her amazing charts.

Mortgage Defaults (CDR) Surging After Rate Reset (Did Jay Powell And The Blackhearts Wait Too Long To Cut Rates??)

In addition to soaring sellers to buyers ratio in US housing markets, we now have surging mortgage default risk (CDR) after mortgage rate resets.

Did Powell and The Fed (aka, Jay Powell and the Blackhearts) wait too long to cut rates?

Here is the soaring ratio of home sellers to buyers. OOOGG!!!

Funky Cold Jerome! US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Rises/Steepens, Particularly At The 10-year Tenor (As Of Yesterday, The 30-year Mortgage Rate FELL To 6.17%)

It’s Friday and the US Treasury yield curve is rising/steepening at the 10-year tenor.

As of yesterday, the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.17%

Thanks in part to Funky Cold Jerome!

Biden/Fed Reign Of Error? US Housing Starts DOWN 6% YoY (Permits DOWN 11.1% YoY)

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.

Housing starts:

Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.

Housing permits?

Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.

Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”