Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
Can we ask the US House and Senate if they will ever return US Federal government spending to pre-Covid levels? Both US Federal government spending and public debt are up 56% since the Covid outbreak in 2020.
The answer is no. Politicians thrive on Federal spending.
Feelin’ stronger for the most part.
Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications.
Mortgage demand dwindled since Covid and Biden/Powell and hasn’t recovered.
Shutdown!
Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with the view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived.
Yes, the Federal government has shut down.
Zowie! The US economy is red hot!!
Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — September 26, 2025
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points.
Existing home sales helped drive higher GDP growth.
Zowie! The US economy is red hot!
It’s Friday and the US Treasury yield curve is rising/steepening at the 10-year tenor.
As of yesterday, the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.17%
Thanks in part to Funky Cold Jerome!
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the God of Hellfire! We should always wait a day to digest Fed’s annoucements since they often make little sense. For example, yesterday the 10Y yield fell below 4% after The Fed’s announcement … then promplty rose above 4% again. And today, the US Treasury 10Y yield rose to 4.1276%
The 30Y US mortgage rate fell to 6.493%.
How about the US Dollar? Similar to the US 10Y yield, volatility reigned following Powell’s muddled message.
Powell rarely is straightforward and never puts cash on the barrelhead.
It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.
Housing starts:
Housing permits?
Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.
Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”
Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913. It is the House of the Dying Dollar.
Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913.
Of course, Trump II is only 9 months old and Biden had 4 long years to destroy the dollar.
US housing is simply unaffordable!
Mortgage rates remain elevated since the Biden Administration took control in 2021. Although under Trump, the rise in the 30-year mortgage rate has slowed. But the 30-year mortgage rate is up 126% since the beginning of 2021 and the “Joe The Boss” Biden administration.
Mortgage originations at large banks declined a whopping 74% under “Joe The Boss” Biden.
Between mortgage rates rising by 126% and house prices rising by 41.5% under “Joe The Boss” Biden.
US housing is simply unaffordable.
Guiseppe “Joe The Boss” Biden.
Actually, this is a photo of Guiseppe “Joe The Boss” Masseria. A New York crime boss assassinated by Lucky Luciano in 1931.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY in August.
Shelter (housing) is up 3.6% YoY. Gimme (expensive) shelter!
Of course, Federal government spending is the source of inflation. Notice the lag between Covid spending and resulting inflation.
So much for Trump Tariffs causing runaway inflation.
Prayers for Charlie Kirk and his family. I hope they catch the sick SOB that assassinated Charlie.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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