Category: Inflation

The Upside To Tariffs (Trump’s Tariffs Generated Over $25 Billion In Tariffs Under His Second Term)

The U.S. has already brought in nearly $73 billion in revenue from tariffs so far this year, compared to $77 billion in tariff revenue for the entirety of 2024. In Trump’s second term, tariff revenue is over $25 billion.

So much for the hysteria over a stock market crash and massive increase in inflation. Particularly “economists” who say this nonsense. Who are those guys?

Silver Cup? Silver, Money, Debt, And The Decline Of The US Dollar

We got silver?

Tavi Costa at Crescat Capital (founded by my former MBA student at University of Chicago Kevin Smith) produced this excellent chart of silver prices showing the cup and handle of silver prices.

The rise in silver prices corresponds with a deterioration of the US bond market. Look at Treasury futures courtesy of Bravos Research.

Of course, Washington DC’s insane spending has led to insane money printing by The Feral Reserve.

Everyone in Washington DC deserves a “Silver Cup of Failure” for uncontrolled government waste and spending and mismanagement by The Feral Reserve.

Gov’t Gone Wild! Purchasing Power Of US Dollar Declined 97% Since 1915, US Debt Up 317% Since Jan 2009 (M2 Money Up 210% Since Jan 2009)

It’s Gov’t Gone Wild! That includes The House, Senate, President and Federal Reserve.

The purchasing power of the US Dollar was $1004.4 on 1915-03-01. By 2025-05-01, the purchasing power fell to $31.1, a loss of 97%. Public debt since the last year of GW Bush, Obama/Biden (with a brief hiatus with Trump) rose 317% since January 2009.

M2 Money printing grew 210% since January 2009.

The music??

US Adds 147k Jobs In June, Federal Jobs Decline By -7k (Likely Kills Any Fed Rate Cuts)

So much for the doom porn about tariffs or anything Trump. The US economy is booming. Example? Non farm payrolls (NFPs) in June rose by 147k jobs added.

As opposed to yesterday’s negative ADP report, the NFP continued to grow despite fears of tariffs, etc.

  • Government employment rose by 73,000 in June. Employment in state government increased by 47,000, largely in education (+40,000). Employment in local government education continued to trend up (+23,000). Job losses continued in federal government (-7,000), where employment is down by 69,000 since reaching a recent peak in January.
  • Health care added 39,000 jobs in June, similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job gains occurred in hospitals (+16,000) and in nursing and residential care facilities (+14,000).
  • In June, social assistance employment continued to trend up (+19,000), reflecting continued growth in individual and family services (+16,000).

The positive jobs report likely killed any chance of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting.

Debt Slavery! As Of Q1 2025, GDP Growth Equalled Gov’t Debt (Unfortunately, Big Beautiful Bill Doesn’t Cut Enough Spending)

Finally, US government debt growth (YoY) was approximately equal to US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2025.

Unfortunately, the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is projected to add $3.9 trillion of debt. Unfortunately, there are insufficient spending cuts in the BBB. And the Senate just nixed kicking illegal immigrants off of Federal healthcare programs.

Unfortunately, GDP growth is only expected to be modest with debt growth once again rising faster than GDP growth. As Diane Feinstein once said, politicians are elected to spend money. This, of course, was a ridiculous statement embraced by spend-crazy Democrats and RINOs.

So, Congress has committed American taxpayers to debt slavery.

Going Down! New Home Sales Plunged In May As Mortgage Rates Rose (Worst Since June 2022)

New home sales are going down.

New home sales plunged in May, the biggest MoM drop since June 2022.

The median sales price increased 3% from a year ago to $426,600 last month, marking the first year-over-year price gain in 2025.

The plunge in new home sales came as mortgage rates ticked back higher.

Another example of the carnage left behind by President Autopen (Joe Biden).

Screenshot

Bits And Pieces? US Household Net Worth Fell By -0.93% In Q1 2025 As Bitcoin Falls Below 100k

The housing markets is in bits and pieces following The Fed’s fickle management of interest rates and Biden’s disastrous spending policies. U.S. household net worth fell by 0.93% in 1Q2025 … largest decline since 3Q2022, but not necessarily comparable to that quarter in terms of magnitude.

Bitcoin just broke below $100k.

What will The Fed? As I have said over and over again, The Fed needs to cut rates.

Covid, The Fed, Biden And The Impossibility Of Home Ownership In A Post-Biden World

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s favorite song: “No sugar tonight” for the mortgage market. The Fed provided plenty of sugar during the Covid crisis of 2020.

Mortgage rates grew under Biden from under 3% to nearly 8%, helping to choke off housing demand.

The good news? Median home price growth YoY has been negative since 2023 whilr average hourly earnings YoY has been positive and steady.

Please Jerome, lower rates!! We are in a ring of fire with high housing prices and high mortgage rates.

Crazy Train! Mortgage Applications Decreased 2.6 Percent From One Week Earlier (Home Prices Rose 39% Under Biden While Mortgage Originations At Large Banks Fell -61%)

All aboard! The crazy mortgage train! Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%. The mortgage market is still recovering from Bidenomics!

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 13, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%.