Mortgage Applications Increased 9.4 Percent From One Week Earlier While Purchase Index Decreased 13 Percent Compared With The Previous Week

Thank goodness “Statist Joe” Biden is gone. Kamala Harris is still lingering around the edges, while the mortgage and housing markets are still suffering from the Biden/Harris regulatory overreach.

Mortgage applications increased 9.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 4, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.77 percent, its lowest level in three months. After adjusting for the July 4th holiday, purchase applications increased to the highest level of activity since February 2023 and remained above year-ago levels.

Biden claims the foreign leaders have been calling him for advice. Here is one example.

US Adds 147k Jobs In June, Federal Jobs Decline By -7k (Likely Kills Any Fed Rate Cuts)

So much for the doom porn about tariffs or anything Trump. The US economy is booming. Example? Non farm payrolls (NFPs) in June rose by 147k jobs added.

As opposed to yesterday’s negative ADP report, the NFP continued to grow despite fears of tariffs, etc.

Government employment rose by 73,000 in June. Employment in state government increased by 47,000, largely in education (+40,000). Employment in local government education continued to trend up (+23,000). Job losses continued in federal government (-7,000), where employment is down by 69,000 since reaching a recent peak in January.
Health care added 39,000 jobs in June, similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job gains occurred in hospitals (+16,000) and in nursing and residential care facilities (+14,000).
In June, social assistance employment continued to trend up (+19,000), reflecting continued growth in individual and family services (+16,000).

The positive jobs report likely killed any chance of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting.

Debt Slavery! As Of Q1 2025, GDP Growth Equalled Gov’t Debt (Unfortunately, Big Beautiful Bill Doesn’t Cut Enough Spending)

Finally, US government debt growth (YoY) was approximately equal to US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2025.

Unfortunately, the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is projected to add $3.9 trillion of debt. Unfortunately, there are insufficient spending cuts in the BBB. And the Senate just nixed kicking illegal immigrants off of Federal healthcare programs.

Unfortunately, GDP growth is only expected to be modest with debt growth once again rising faster than GDP growth. As Diane Feinstein once said, politicians are elected to spend money. This, of course, was a ridiculous statement embraced by spend-crazy Democrats and RINOs.

So, Congress has committed American taxpayers to debt slavery.

New Homes For Sale Near Financial Crisis Highs (Big Short Redux?)

I sure hope this isn’t a repeat of the financial crisis! But new homes for sale have ballooned to financial crisis levels.

Home sales have dropped below year-ago levels, presaging likely declines in mortgage supply and turnover. With completed-home inventories hitting post-global financial crisis (GFC) highs, regional surpluses are emerging as key home-price factors, setting the stage for widening pockets of price weakness in the months ahead.

Contributing to the glut of new homes for sale is the rising prices AND higher mortgage rates.

The Short End: US Treasury Yield Curve Flattens Since Dec 31, 2024 (Pending US Home Sales Remain Low)

The US Treasury yield curve is flattening at the short-end (2-3 years) but remains unchanged at the long end (>= 20 years).

And pending US Home Sales remain low.

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s horrid economic follicies.

Going Down! New Home Sales Plunged In May As Mortgage Rates Rose (Worst Since June 2022)

New home sales are going down.

New home sales plunged in May, the biggest MoM drop since June 2022.

The median sales price increased 3% from a year ago to $426,600 last month, marking the first year-over-year price gain in 2025.

The plunge in new home sales came as mortgage rates ticked back higher.

Another example of the carnage left behind by President Autopen (Joe Biden).

Bits And Pieces? US Household Net Worth Fell By -0.93% In Q1 2025 As Bitcoin Falls Below 100k

The housing markets is in bits and pieces following The Fed’s fickle management of interest rates and Biden’s disastrous spending policies. U.S. household net worth fell by 0.93% in 1Q2025 … largest decline since 3Q2022, but not necessarily comparable to that quarter in terms of magnitude.

Bitcoin just broke below $100k.

What will The Fed? As I have said over and over again, The Fed needs to cut rates.

Covid, The Fed, Biden And The Impossibility Of Home Ownership In A Post-Biden World

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s favorite song: “No sugar tonight” for the mortgage market. The Fed provided plenty of sugar during the Covid crisis of 2020.

Mortgage rates grew under Biden from under 3% to nearly 8%, helping to choke off housing demand.

The good news? Median home price growth YoY has been negative since 2023 whilr average hourly earnings YoY has been positive and steady.

Please Jerome, lower rates!! We are in a ring of fire with high housing prices and high mortgage rates.

Crazy Train! Mortgage Applications Decreased 2.6 Percent From One Week Earlier (Home Prices Rose 39% Under Biden While Mortgage Originations At Large Banks Fell -61%)

All aboard! The crazy mortgage train! Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%. The mortgage market is still recovering from Bidenomics!

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 13, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%.

Trump’s Economy In Q2 Growing At 3.5% As Fed Keeps On Printing!

The Fed’s themesong: Keep on printing!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on June 17, down from 3.8 percent on June 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government expenditures growth decreased from 2.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent, while the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.9 percent to -1.4 percent.

GDP growth corresponds to Fed money printing.

Here is the breakdown. True, real GDP growth has been slowing over June.