Zowie! Q3 2025 Real GDP At 3.9% (Driven By Existing Home Sales)

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!!

Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — September 26, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points.

Existing home sales helped drive higher GDP growth.

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!

Buyers’ Jubilee? 35.2% More Home Sellers Than Buyers In U.S. Housing Market In August

August represents a massive switch from 3 years ago when there were nearly 40% more home buyers and sellers in the US housing market. There are now 35.2% MORE home sellers than buyers!

Funky Cold Jerome! US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Rises/Steepens, Particularly At The 10-year Tenor (As Of Yesterday, The 30-year Mortgage Rate FELL To 6.17%)

It’s Friday and the US Treasury yield curve is rising/steepening at the 10-year tenor.

As of yesterday, the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.17%

Thanks in part to Funky Cold Jerome!

Fed Post-mortem: 10Y Treasury Yield Rises To 4.13%, 30Y Mortgage Rate Falls To 6.5%, US Dollar Falls

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the God of Hellfire! We should always wait a day to digest Fed’s annoucements since they often make little sense. For example, yesterday the 10Y yield fell below 4% after The Fed’s announcement … then promplty rose above 4% again. And today, the US Treasury 10Y yield rose to 4.1276%

The 30Y US mortgage rate fell to 6.493%.

How about the US Dollar? Similar to the US 10Y yield, volatility reigned following Powell’s muddled message.

Powell rarely is straightforward and never puts cash on the barrelhead.

US 10y Yield Below 4% Post-Fed Decision Following 25bp Cut

Well, The Fed cut their target rate by 25 basis points.

Following The Fed’s 25 bp cuts, the 10Y yield fell below 4% to 3.9879%.

The Fed Dots??

We shall see tomorrow if mortgage rates fall.

Is that all there is?

Of course, as soon as I posted this, US Treasury 10Y yields surged. This often happens with The Fed’s incompetent messaging.

Zowie! Mortgage Applications Increased 29.7% From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Up 12% And 20% From Last Year)

Zowie!

Mortgage applications increased 29.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 12, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 29.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 58 percent from the previous week and was 70 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Indicative of the weakening job market, and in anticipation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates last week dropped to their lowest level since last October, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.39 percent. Homeowners responded swiftly, with refinance application volume jumping almost 60 percent compared to the prior week. Homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey. Almost 60 percent of applications were for refinances, but there was also a pickup in purchase applications.

The Biden/Powell “reign of error” is ending.

Biden/Fed Reign Of Error? US Housing Starts DOWN 6% YoY (Permits DOWN 11.1% YoY)

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.

Housing starts:

Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.

Housing permits?

Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.

Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”

House Of The Dying Dollar? US Purchasing Power Of Dollar Fell -18% Under Biden/Powell, But Has Only Fallen -2.5% Under Trump II (Dollar Down -97% Since Fed Estabishment In 1913)

Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913. It is the House of the Dying Dollar.

Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913.

Of course, Trump II is only 9 months old and Biden had 4 long years to destroy the dollar.

US Housing Is Simply Unaffordable! 30y Mortgage Rate UP 125.8% Since Biden Took Control In 2021 (Mortgage Originations Then Fell By 74% While Home Prices Rose )

US housing is simply unaffordable!

Mortgage rates remain elevated since the Biden Administration took control in 2021. Although under Trump, the rise in the 30-year mortgage rate has slowed. But the 30-year mortgage rate is up 126% since the beginning of 2021 and the “Joe The Boss” Biden administration.

Mortgage originations at large banks declined a whopping 74% under “Joe The Boss” Biden.

Between mortgage rates rising by 126% and house prices rising by 41.5% under “Joe The Boss” Biden.

US housing is simply unaffordable.

Guiseppe “Joe The Boss” Biden.

Actually, this is a photo of Guiseppe “Joe The Boss” Masseria. A New York crime boss assassinated by Lucky Luciano in 1931.

US Inflation Headline CPI Rose 0.4% MoM, 2.9% YoY In August (Shelter UP 3.6% YoY)

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY in August.

Shelter (housing) is up 3.6% YoY. Gimme (expensive) shelter!

Of course, Federal government spending is the source of inflation. Notice the lag between Covid spending and resulting inflation.

So much for Trump Tariffs causing runaway inflation.

Prayers for Charlie Kirk and his family. I hope they catch the sick SOB that assassinated Charlie.