Category: Volatility

Pending Home Sales Remain In The House Latitudes (Homebuilder Confidence At 34)

Its like Joe Biden and his bonehead advisors are still gumming up the housing market. Pending home sales in April remains in the house latitudes.

NAHB home builder confidence remains below 50 at 34.

Is the music over for the housing market? High housing prices, high mortgage rates, restrictive zoning all hinder markets.

Doge’d/Cloward-Piven? Biden/Yellen Left Trump With A Massive Problem (Maturing Debt, Rising Interest On Federal Debt, Crashing Trade Balance)

Doge is necessary to get close to closing the budget gap (tax receipts – spending). Biden left Trump and the US with an untenable fiscal situation (think Cloward/Piven). Extremely large debt load with debt maturing over the next couple of years. Thanks to former Treasury Secretary Janet “The Snake” Yellen government funding formula using ST government debt. And its time to pay the piper to pay for Biden’s overspending and Yellen’s Treasury mismanagement.

Most of the Treasury debt that Treasury Secretary Bessent must refinance is short-term.

And with interest rates higher under Trump/Bessent than Biden/Yellen, US Interest Payments on Public Debt is expected to keep rising.

And US trade balance fell to -140.5.

So, were Biden’s economic policies (and Yellen’s Treasury mismanagement) an intentional Cloward-Piven strategy?

Here are Columbia sociologists Cloward and Piven attending a bill signing by President Bill Clinton.

Doge’d! Federal Job Hires Decline, Native-born Jobs Increase (Fed Likely To Keep Rates The Same)

The April Jobs report blew away the tariff crash hysteria. 177k jobs were added, far better than the doomsayers predicted. Even better, more jobs went to native-born workers than foreign-born workers. Even better still, Federal jobs decreased (thanks to Doge).

The US labor market under the Biden administration “grew” almost entirely on the back of “foreign-born” workers, who – as we also first revealed and eventually was widely accepted – were primarily illegal aliens. But in April, we saw a reversal with native-born workers growing and foreign-born workers declining.

And Federal workers continue to decline.

The good news? The Fed will likely not change rates at the next meeting.

I hope the good news on employment continues!

Mortgage Applications Drop 4.2% From Previous Week (Agency MBS Market Shrank In April)

Money, money!

Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 25, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Agency MBS market shrank in April.

And MBS daily returns have the highest return volatility.

Good Ol’ Boys! Flows To Treasury Funds Soar, Fed Remittances To Treasury Hits A Quarter Of A Million Dollars

Washington DC is loaded with good ol’ boys. Willing to cut deals with anyone for a slice of financial pie. Like “10% For The Big Guy” Joe Biden.

Money flowing into Treasury funds hit its highest since 2017, by far.

And with the massive expansion of The Fed’s balance sheet with a) the financial crisis and b) Covid crisis, The Fed still has a staggering amount of bonds on its balance sheet, making it vulnerable to interest rate increases.

Like what has happened in 2023 and 2024 under Biden. A fine mess!

Sail away. We are all prisoners of the theft by DC politicians.

Powell’d! Mortgage Applications Decline By 13% Since Previous Week (Refi Apps Down 20% From Previous Week)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is apparently waiting for the tariff “war” to settle down before he pushes for interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, rising mortgage rates are hurting consumers and the mortgage industry.

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Overall mortgage application activity declined last week, as rates increased to their highest level in two months. The 30-year fixed rate rose for the second straight week to 6.9 percent, an almost 30-basis-point increase over two weeks.

The 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve is steepening.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk!

US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Normalizes To Jan 2022 Levels, Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) Share Back To Financial Crisis (2008) Levels

The good news? The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is normalizing to January 2022 levels.

One the mortgage side, adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) share is the highest since the financial crisis (2008).

As Trump continues to stand up for Americans and China (and Democrats) continues to fight, the S&P 500 index lags MSCI World index by most since 1993 (The Clintons).

One can only hope!

The Empire Strikes Out! Business Conditions Expectations Plunged To Lowest Since 9/11

The Emperor is actually China’s Xi Jinping! Causing the Empire Fed Manufacturing index to decline.

Despite the slump in ‘soft’ survey data, analysts expected Empire Fed Manufacturing to bounce back from March’s tumble to one year lows and they were right with the headline index rising from -20.0 to -8.1 (considerably better than the -13.5), but still negative. However, while current conditions jumped, expectations plunged to the lowest since 9/11/.

China Trade Uncertainty Causes VIX To Fall By 18.7 Pts, Largest In History (Correlation Between Stocks And Bonds Reverse To Positive)

Obama/Biden/Harris/Schumer/Pelosi have let the US be the punks for China. Trump is simply trying to level the playing field and China’s Xie doesn’t like the new equilibrium.

VIX Index fell by 18.7 points yesterday … largest one-day decline in history.

The correlation between stock prices and bond yields has returned to positive territory — hinting at a period of distress in equities and a regime shift in equity and bond markets where recession fears, rather than inflation, may be starting to drive direction of both. The correlation between the two asset classes was positive for the better part of 20 years prior to the pandemic, suggesting equities trended in the direction of yields as inflation mostly coincided with growth. Stocks held a negative correlation to yields throughout most of the 1980s and 1990s, when inflation hurt stocks — and that phenomenon returned for the 2022-24 bear market and recovery period.

Notably, major stock corrections occurred each time the correlation jumped out of its primary regime.

China’s Xi flashes a Hitler salute!