Economic Vertigo! US Interest Payments Expected To Keep Rising Under Marxist Harris (And Why The Fed MUST Try To Lower Interest Rates)

After watching the Democrat hate fest last night (Aka, the Democrat National Convention), I was not shocked that the DNC platform looked like a playbook to destroy the US economy. High taxes, endless spending, more regulations, etc. Not a word about the staggering side of the US debt load … with Harris’ economic plan projected to add a whopping $25 trillon in debt to the already massive $35+ trillion debt load.

And not a mention that US interest payments on the national debt already exceeds defense spending. And is booming!

Of course, Harris’s economic vision is a continutation of Biden’s disastrous visions (which are Obama’s vision of US obliteration). Most politicians in Congress are millionaires (including Bernie Sanders) and won’t suffer from their insane “progressive” policies. Watching last night’s DNC hatefest was like watching nasty 2nd graders having a party.

Of course, the drove of anti-American, anti-properity speakers spewing venom (I hate Hillary’s flat-tone speaking style) like Hillary, Jaime Raskin (aka, Rasputin), AOC, etc. all failed to acknowledge to acknowledge the already monstrous size of the US debt ($35+ trillion) or the massive size of the unfunded promises ($218+ TRILLION). Of course not.

The handle the staggering interest payments that will crowd out other spending, The Federal Reserve will be forced to lower rates.

Of course, Democrats will wheel out “economists” like Robert Reich who say that the debt doesn’t matter.

That’s Biden/Harrisnomics! Leading Economic Indicators Down For 29th Straight Month (Outside Of Great Financial Crisis, The Worst Decline In LEI Since Mid ’70s!!!)

That’s Biden/Harrisnomics!

US Leading Economic Indicators down for their 29th straight month – at a level worse than the trough of COVID lockdowns…

…and the head of The Conference Board says ‘nothing to see here’…

The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

For context, outside of the great financial crisis, this is the worst decline in LEI since the mid ’70s!!!

And what is behind the ‘no recession’ call… US equity strength!!

Thank The Feral Reserve for the equity spike!

So, to summarize – almost all the macro data signals weakening growth for years… but because stocks are up (and credit spreads down), there’s no recession anywhere on the horizon!!??

Buying Conditions For Housing Drops To 21, All-time Low

Harris has released her “vision” for the US economy, but it is what you would expect. $25k subsidy for first-time homebuyers which will make housing even MORE expensive. According the University of Michigan consumer survey, buying conditions for housing has already plummeted to 21, the lowest in history.

Cause? Already high housing prices and relatively high mortgage rates.

July Housing Starts Drop -6.8% MoM, Lowest Since Covid Economic Lockdowns Of 2020

Another bad housing report for July, this time its housing starts.

Housing starts declined in July to the lowest level since the Covid economic lockdowns.

Housing starts fell -6.8% in July.

On a YoY basis, housing starts fell -14.8% YoY.

“It’s Communism”: Kamala’s First Economic Plan Proposes Price Controls To “Combat Inflation”

After the unoriginal Vice President Kamala Harris stole former President Trump’s proposed ‘no tax on tips’ policy, she’s at it again with yet another recycled idea. This time, she’s echoing President Biden’s actions and rhetoric to crack down on sky-high food prices by proposing the first-ever federal ban on “corporate price-gouging in the food and grocery industries”—a move that reeks of socialism.

“There’s a big difference between fair pricing in competitive markets, and excessive prices unrelated to the costs of doing business,” the Harris campaign wrote in a statement, adding, “Americans can see that difference in their grocery bills.”

The Harris campaign said the vice president will unveil the new federal proposed ban on Friday at a campaign rally in the battleground state of North Carolina as part of a broader economic policy platform. The proposal will ensure food companies can’t exploit consumers to increase profits, according to CBS News, citing Harris-Walz campaign officials.

Harris’ policy speech will also call on the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys to examine corporations violating price-fixing rules. Her remarks are expected to echo Biden’s actions and rhetoric, especially with his war against meat processing companies that he alleges are responsible for higher burger prices at the supermarket.

VP Harris’ campaign argues that lowering Americans’ costs is a function of socialist-style price controls. Yet this is the quickest way to understand that Harris’ economic team has no actual understanding of inflation.

Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni explained, “Here’s your “price gouging” narrative: average costs paid by businesses have risen just as much as costs charged to consumers – if businesses are being “greedy,” they’re doing it all wrong…” 

Instead of curbing out-of-control government spending, which debt rises $1 trillion every 100 days, and understanding that monetary inflation driven by the Federal Reserve’s money creation is the root cause of inflation, Harris deflects the actual problem: The Fed. She instead goes after big corporations for ‘illegal price gouging.’ 

Here’s a snippet of Money Metals Midweek Memo’s Mike Maharrey commenting on Harris’ proposed price-fixing ban on big food companies: 

The second “dumb” idea Maharrey discussed came from Vice President Kamala Harris, who was recently asked about her plan to combat inflation. Maharrey criticized her response, which he described as “word salad,” pointing out that she merely acknowledged the problem without offering any concrete solutions. Instead, she promised to take on “big corporations” engaging in “illegal price gouging,” corporate landlords, and big pharma.

Maharrey argued that Harris’s approach misses the root cause of inflation, which is monetary inflation driven by the Federal Reserve’s money creation. He cited the July budget deficit data, revealing that the Biden administration spent another $574 billion in just one month, running a $243 billion deficit. Maharrey emphasized that inflation is not caused by corporate greed but by the government’s excessive spending and borrowing.

“Price inflation is a symptom of monetary inflation, which has everything to do with money creation by the Federal Reserve,” Maharrey explained. He warned that Harris’s proposed policies, including price controls, would likely lead to shortages and exacerbate the problem rather than solve it.

Kamalanomics = ‘communist economics’ as some X users describe… 

“We are no longer talking about hypothetical communism, we are talking about two straight up communists who want to institute a federal price ban on food and a federal minimum wage that is going to make every corporation go out of business.

Voting for communism is not the solution to your precious feelings.”

Grocery stores have a 3-4% profit margin if they are lucky.

Kama Kameleon! Fed Loses Record Amount, Bankrupty Filings (Chap 11) Highest In 13 Years, Foreign Investors Pulling Out Of China

Kama Kameleon.

Kamala Harris, despite being VP for almost 4 years, is going to annouce her plans for taming inflation. Why doesn’t she do it now?? What Harris can’t control is The Federal Reserve that is losing money at breakneck speed.

Here is The Fed’s balance sheet.

I shudder to think what Harris will propose to solve the highest bankrupty (Chap 11) rate in 13 years. Probably more Bidenomics (big wealth transfers to large corporations/donors).

Meanwhile, foreigns pulled a record amount of funds from ailing China.

Kamala Harris will say anything to get elected, then fall back on her Communist agenda.

Trouble With The Curve! US Yield Curve Rises Above 0 Slope While Mortgage Rates Fall

We know several things about the yield curve. First, it goes negative before recessions. Second, it is related to the inverse of The Fed’s target rate (blue line).

How about the US mortgage rate? Generally, US Mortgage rates are inverse to the 10Y-3M yield curve, but lately the US mortgage rate (pink circle) have declined with the 10Y-3M yield curve.

The yield curve does forecast recessions, but is unreliable in forecasting mortgage rate movements.

Mortgage Purchase Applications Rise In Latest MBA Survey But Still Down -11% Since Same Week Last Year (MBS Convexity Rising As Rates Decline)

The slowing US economy has a silver lining: Treasury and mortgage rates are declining. And the is spurring faster mortgage prepayments.

Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 2, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous week and was 59 percent higher than the same week one year ago. 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.55 percent from 6.82 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

The deciine in rates led to an increase in MBS convexity.

Watch out! Mortgage convexity continues to rise!

Meanwhile, Kamala “The Kommie” Harris laughs.

The Fed Money Printing And Stock Prices And Housing Prices (Why The Fed Must Keep On Printing!)

The Fed’s theme song: Keep on printing!

Look at this chart of the S&P 500 index against M2 Money stock.

And this chart of Case-Shiller home prices against M2 Money.

Bottom line? The Fed has to keep on printing money. Otherwise, the US economy will collapse like a cheap building.

Here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell creating assets bubbles.