Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders
Financial Markets And Real Estate
US existing home sales dropped 2.7% MoM (vs -0.7% MoM expected) in June leaving existing home sales unchanged year-over-year.
The median sales price increased 2% in June from a year ago to a record high of $435,300.
Meanwhile, The Fed keeps on printing money.
This is a new world for housing and mortgage finance. Outrageous, unafforable housing for millions.
Keep on printing is the song of The Federal Reserve. But its the same all over the world as global central banks are printing zads of money too.
Bitcoin keeps on growing in price as global M2 Money supply keeps on growing.
And the same is true for ethereum. It keeps growing as M2 Money keeps growing.
It is another example of government gone wild!
The media and Democrat politicians love to fear monger about how Trump’s tariffs would cause inflation and unemployment. But June’s import prices showed no inflation at all. In fact, import prices FELL -0.2% YoY.
The latest jobs report revealed that U-3 unemployment FELL to 4.10%.
But don’t worry. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will get hysterial about Trump firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And, as usual, be wrong.
The U.S. has already brought in nearly $73 billion in revenue from tariffs so far this year, compared to $77 billion in tariff revenue for the entirety of 2024. In Trump’s second term, tariff revenue is over $25 billion.
So much for the hysteria over a stock market crash and massive increase in inflation. Particularly “economists” who say this nonsense. Who are those guys?
I sure hope this isn’t a repeat of the financial crisis! But new homes for sale have ballooned to financial crisis levels.
Home sales have dropped below year-ago levels, presaging likely declines in mortgage supply and turnover. With completed-home inventories hitting post-global financial crisis (GFC) highs, regional surpluses are emerging as key home-price factors, setting the stage for widening pockets of price weakness in the months ahead.
Contributing to the glut of new homes for sale is the rising prices AND higher mortgage rates.
The US Treasury yield curve is flattening at the short-end (2-3 years) but remains unchanged at the long end (>= 20 years).
And pending US Home Sales remain low.
It will take a while to recover from Biden’s horrid economic follicies.
New home sales are going down.
New home sales plunged in May, the biggest MoM drop since June 2022.
The median sales price increased 3% from a year ago to $426,600 last month, marking the first year-over-year price gain in 2025.
The plunge in new home sales came as mortgage rates ticked back higher.
Another example of the carnage left behind by President Autopen (Joe Biden).
The housing markets is in bits and pieces following The Fed’s fickle management of interest rates and Biden’s disastrous spending policies. U.S. household net worth fell by 0.93% in 1Q2025 … largest decline since 3Q2022, but not necessarily comparable to that quarter in terms of magnitude.
Bitcoin just broke below $100k.
What will The Fed? As I have said over and over again, The Fed needs to cut rates.
All aboard! The crazy mortgage train! Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%. The mortgage market is still recovering from Bidenomics!
Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 13, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%.
The Fed’s themesong: Keep on printing!
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on June 17, down from 3.8 percent on June 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government expenditures growth decreased from 2.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent, while the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.9 percent to -1.4 percent.
GDP growth corresponds to Fed money printing.
Here is the breakdown. True, real GDP growth has been slowing over June.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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