Pending Home Sales In August Surge 4% YoY (Lower Rates Helping, Rates Peaked At 18.63% In 1981)

August data for the US housing market has been ‘mixed’ to say the least with a surge in new home sales (thanks to a massive rise in incentives from homebuilders) and a small decline (near multi-year lows), leaving this morning’s pending home sales data as the tie-breaker (with expectations of an ‘unch’ shift MoM).

It appears the drop in mortgage rates is driving some purchase activity as pending home sales soared 4.0% MoM in August – the most since March – dragging sales up 0.5% YoY.

Mortgage rates are falling, helping existing home sales. Note that the 30-year mortgage rate peaked at 18.63% in 1981.

Zowie! Q3 2025 Real GDP At 3.9% (Driven By Existing Home Sales)

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!!

Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — September 26, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points.

Existing home sales helped drive higher GDP growth.

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!

Buyers’ Jubilee? 35.2% More Home Sellers Than Buyers In U.S. Housing Market In August

August represents a massive switch from 3 years ago when there were nearly 40% more home buyers and sellers in the US housing market. There are now 35.2% MORE home sellers than buyers!

Funky Cold Jerome! US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Rises/Steepens, Particularly At The 10-year Tenor (As Of Yesterday, The 30-year Mortgage Rate FELL To 6.17%)

It’s Friday and the US Treasury yield curve is rising/steepening at the 10-year tenor.

As of yesterday, the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.17%

Thanks in part to Funky Cold Jerome!

US 10y Yield Below 4% Post-Fed Decision Following 25bp Cut

Well, The Fed cut their target rate by 25 basis points.

Following The Fed’s 25 bp cuts, the 10Y yield fell below 4% to 3.9879%.

The Fed Dots??

We shall see tomorrow if mortgage rates fall.

Is that all there is?

Of course, as soon as I posted this, US Treasury 10Y yields surged. This often happens with The Fed’s incompetent messaging.

Biden/Fed Reign Of Error? US Housing Starts DOWN 6% YoY (Permits DOWN 11.1% YoY)

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.

Housing starts:

Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.

Housing permits?

Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.

Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”

US Treasury Yield Curve Points To Zero Relief For Mortgage Market Even If The Fed Cuts Their Target Rate Tomorrow

Participants in the mortgage market are hoping for relief in the mortgage market when The Fed lowers rates tomorrow.

But the reality is the the bond market is expecting declining short-term rates, but not much change at the 10-year tenor.

Mortgage rates have fallen since October 23, 2023 as the yield curve has gradually steepened.

So don’t be surprised if The Fed cuts rates tomorrow and there is little or no reaction in mortgage rates.

House Of The Dying Dollar? US Purchasing Power Of Dollar Fell -18% Under Biden/Powell, But Has Only Fallen -2.5% Under Trump II (Dollar Down -97% Since Fed Estabishment In 1913)

Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913. It is the House of the Dying Dollar.

Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913.

Of course, Trump II is only 9 months old and Biden had 4 long years to destroy the dollar.

US Housing Is Simply Unaffordable! 30y Mortgage Rate UP 125.8% Since Biden Took Control In 2021 (Mortgage Originations Then Fell By 74% While Home Prices Rose )

US housing is simply unaffordable!

Mortgage rates remain elevated since the Biden Administration took control in 2021. Although under Trump, the rise in the 30-year mortgage rate has slowed. But the 30-year mortgage rate is up 126% since the beginning of 2021 and the “Joe The Boss” Biden administration.

Mortgage originations at large banks declined a whopping 74% under “Joe The Boss” Biden.

Between mortgage rates rising by 126% and house prices rising by 41.5% under “Joe The Boss” Biden.

US housing is simply unaffordable.

Guiseppe “Joe The Boss” Biden.

Actually, this is a photo of Guiseppe “Joe The Boss” Masseria. A New York crime boss assassinated by Lucky Luciano in 1931.

50 Basis Point Cut Coming? US Economy Adds Only 22k Jobs In August, Unemployment Rate Rises To 4.3% (Guns Of August Misfires)

Not exactly the Guns Of August. More like a wet cap gun firing.

The jobs report for August showed only 22k jobs added.

U-3 unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. U-6 unemployment and part-time rose to 8.1%.

Total private jobs added was 38k while manufacturing jobs added was down -12k.

Government jobs dropped -16k.

It gets worse! All of the jobs added were PART-TIME!

It gets even worse: native-born workers plunged by 561K, the biggest one month drop since August 2024. Foreign-born workers increased by 50K, the first increase since March.

Let’s see if The Fed drops the hammer on rates by 50 basis points.