Keep On Printing? National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November As M2 Money Growth Slows

Keep on printing money. It seems that home price growth requires The Fed to keep printing money.

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (“November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain In November 2025

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.4% annual gain for November, in line with the previous month.

Real home values declined as consumer inflation (2.7%) outpaced the National Index gain (1.4%) by 1.3 percentage points.

Regional divergence persisted: Midwestern and Northeastern markets led by Chicago (+5.7%) and New York (+5.0%) posted gains, while Sun Belt cities including Tampa (–3.9%), Phoenix (–1.4%), Dallas (–1.4%), and Miami (–1.0%) saw declines.
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“Regional patterns continue to illustrate a stark divergence. Chicago leads all cities for a second consecutive month with a 5.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%. These historically steady Midwestern and Northeastern markets have maintained respectable gains even as overall conditions cool. By contrast, Tampa home prices are 3.9% lower than a year ago – the steepest decline among the 20 cities, extending that market’s 13-month streak of annual drops. Other Sun Belt boomtowns remain under pressure as well: Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%) each continue to see year-over-year declines, a dramatic turnaround from their pandemic-era strength.

“Monthly price changes were mixed but leaned negative in November, underscoring persistent softness. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw prices decline from October (versus 16 declines in the previous month). Only a handful of markets – including Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami, New York, and Phoenix – eked out slight gains before seasonal adjustment. After accounting for typical seasonal slowing, the National Index inched up just 0.4% for the month, indicating that price momentum remains muted.
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The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.4% annual gain for November. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.0%, up from a 1.9% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, up from a 1.3% increase in the previous month.
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The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a drop of 0.1% and the 20-City Composite Index fell 0.03%, while the 10-City Composite Index increased 0.1%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index reported a monthly increase of 0.4%, and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month gains of 0.5%.

Strong Buyers Market In Housing! 47.1% More Sellers Than Buyers

Its some kind of wonderful … for home buyers.

Home sellers outnumbered buyers by 47.1% in December 2025, the largest gap since Redfin data began in 2013.

The percentage jumped by +7.1 points from November, the biggest monthly increase since September 2022.

The number of active homebuyers fell -5.9% MoM to 1.34 million, the lowest level on record.

Meanwhile, home sellers declined -1.1% MoM to 1.97 million, the lowest since February 2025.

By comparison, in November 2021, there were 36.5% fewer sellers than buyers.

This all comes as elevated housing costs and economic uncertainty continue to push buyers to the sidelines.

Buyers now hold unprecedented negotiating power, but only if they can afford to enter the market.

Let’s see what sugar babe (aka The Federal Reserve) does.

Mortgage Market After Covid! Soaring Home Prices And Mortgage Rates Led To Collapse Of Mortgage Originations

Like The Talking Heads song “Life During Wartime,” we are dealing with the mortgage market affer Covid. What happened? Mortgage originations plunged after mortgage rates (red line) soared.

In addition, insane Federal spending levels caused housing prices to soar.

‘Stay warm!

Mortgage Demand Decreased 9.7 Percent From Two Weeks Earlier (Biden-era Malaise Continues)

Mortgage demand is recovering slowly from Biden-era mismanagement. Rising mortgage rates coupled with rising home prices made housing affordability get flushed down the toilet.

Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2026. The results include an adjustment for the holidays.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 28 percent compared with two weeks ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 31 percent from two weeks ago and was 108 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from two weeks earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 23 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from two weeks ago and was 133 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Housing Prices! Chicago Leads All Major Markets With 5.8% Annual Gain (Followed By New York At 5.0% And Cleveland At 4.1%, Tampa Recorded 4.2% Decline)

This is the opposite of the housing bubble from The Big Short where home prices in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Florida rose then crashed. Instead, the fastest growing cities are in the northeast and midwest.

The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.3% year over year in October 2025, easing from a 1.4% increase in September and coming in slightly above market expectations of a 1.1% gain. This represents the smallest annual increase since July 2023, reinforcing signs that the US housing market is settling into a much slower growth phase. Home price appreciation continues to trail consumer inflation. With October CPI estimated at around 3.1%, inflation-adjusted home values appear to have edged modestly lower over the past year.

Regional data point to a pronounced geographic rotation. Chicago now leads all major markets with a 5.8% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 4.1%. In contrast, Tampa recorded a 4.2% decline, the steepest among the 20 cities, and its 12th consecutive month of falling annual prices. Other former pandemic boom markets, especially in the Sun Belt, are seeing the sharpest declines, led by Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%), and Miami (-1.1%).

Housing price growth has stalled even though M2 money growth is higher YoY.

On the silver front, silver regained losses yesterday, but increased margin requirements are causing losses again.

Today.

Gold And Silver: Silver Up 10% On Friday, Gold Outperforming Stock Market Over Last 30 Years (Silver Hit $79.2708!)

Gold and silver. Gold is now outperforming the Stock Market over the last 30 years.

Silver is up 10% on Friday.

Silver (XAG) just hit the $79.2708 price point.

Dino’s song. A shout-out to David Freiberg on the Gibson SG bass and John Cipollina on the Gibson SG guitar. I love the Gibson SG!

Mortgage Demand Decreased 5.0 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 6 Percent, Refinance Index Decreased 6 Percent)

Twas the end of the year and mortgage demand is poor, but the new year is just around the corner and mortgage demand will rise.

Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 19, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 110 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Overall mortgage application volume fell last week, despite the slight decline in mortgage rates. I expect the trends of a softening job market, sticky inflation, elevated home inventories, and steady mortgage rates will persist into the new year.

Simply Unaffordable? A Different View Of US Housing Prices (Gov’t Needs To Stop Manipulating The Housing Market)

Politicians love to scream about housing being simply unaffordable. Like mayor-elected Mandami in New York City. But the reality is that housing prices vary by city and there are more affordable cities than New York City to choose from. Federal policies should not be focused on letting people staying a particular city.

When we look at housing prices compared to average hourly earnings, we see housing prices rising with average hourly earnings … as expected.

If we look at year-over-year changes, we see the Covid bump in housing prices corresponding with the surge in Federal spending. But things have simmered down since the bump in 2020-2023.

My suggestion is for the Federal government to stop interfering in the housing market.

Government Spending Helped Kill Mortgage Demand! Mortgage Demand Decreased 3.8 Percent From One Week Earlier

Nobody wastes money like government, particularly around events like Covid where Federal spending led to housing prices spiking after Covid outbreak in 2020. This made housing unaffordable for most households. This in turn helped kill the mortgage market.

Mortgage applications decreased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Once again, the government response to the Wuhan Covid virus of 2020 helped drive up housing prices killing off mortgage demand.

Hallelujah! Mortgage Demand Increased 4.8% From Previous Week (Purchase Demand Increased 32%, Refi Demand Increased 14%)

Hallelujah, I love this economy so! Of course, former First Lady Jill Biden is on the national tour trashing the economy saying it was “perfect” under Joe Biden.

Mortgage applications increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 49 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 32 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 14 percent from the previous week and was 88 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Compared to the prior week’s data, which included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage application activity increased last week, driven by an uptick in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Conventional refinance applications were up almost 8 percent and government refinances were up 24 percent as the FHA rate dipped to its lowest level since September 2024. Conventional purchase applications were down for the week, but there was a 5 percent increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek lower downpayment loans. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of 2024’s pace as broader housing inventory and affordability conditions improve gradually.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.33 percent from 6.32 percent, with points increasing to 0.60 from 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.