Biden/Yellen Dare McCarthy To Step Over The Line! Treasury Cash Balance Goes Low, Large Company Bankrupties Highest Since 2010 As Biden Goes On Vacation (Vacation Joe!)

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen changed the drop dead date on a US default from June 1 to June 5, daring Speaker McCarthy to step over the line. The debt ceiting is so urgent that Biden went on vacation to Delware for Memorial Day weekend. In fact, Biden and Yellen expect McCarthy to dance.

White House and Republican negotiators tentatively narrowed differences but were still clashing Friday on key issues as the Treasury Department signaled extra time was available before a potential US default.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the department expects to be able to make payments on US debts up until June 5 if lawmakers fail to act on the US debt ceiling. That set a more pointed date for a potential default but is also four days later than her previous comments eyeing trouble as soon as June 1.

The new so-called X-date buys negotiators for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden more time to strike a deal. The negotiating teams haven’t met in person since Wednesday but spoke late into the night Thursday and were in regular communication throughout the day Friday.

Yes, there isn’t really a crisis folks. Treasury collects tax dollars continuously so Treasury can prioritze debt payments and other disbursements. The only crisis is in the minds of the media.

Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo warned Friday that payments to Social Security beneficiaries, veterans and others would be delayed if there’s a default. But he said he’s gaining some confidence an agreement will be reached.

We’re making progress and our goal is to make sure that we get a deal because default is unacceptable,” Adeyemo said in an interview on CNN. “The president has committed to making sure that we have good-faith negotiations with the Republicans to reach a deal because the alternative is catastrophic for all Americans.”

The accord would also include a measure to upgrade the nation’s electric grid to accommodate sham renewable energy, a key climate goal, while speeding permits for pipelines and other fossil fuel projects that the GOP favors, people familiar with the deal said.

The deal would cut $10 billion from an $80 billion budget increase for the Internal Revenue Service that Biden won as part of his Inflation Reduction Act (big whoop). Republicans have warned of a wave of agents and audits while Democrats said the increase would pay for itself through less tax cheating.

What is taking shape would be far more limited than the opening offer from Republicans, who called for raising the debt ceiling through next March in exchange for 10 years of spending caps. House conservatives were already balking Thursday at the notion of a small deal, with the House Freedom Caucus sending a letter to McCarthy demanding he hold firm.

Treasury’s cash balance is at a low point and The Administration threatens Social Security recipients and veterans of delayed payments … while Biden goes on vacation for Memorial Day weekend to honor veterans??

Of course, Yellen know that all The Fed has to do to increase M2 Money growth again.

Meanwhile, bankrupties among large companies are highest since 2010.

In the mortgage market, current coupon nominal spreads 9Agency MBS 30Y coupon over Treasuries) are soaring.

Meanwhile, to honor US veterans, Biden goes on Memorial Day weekend and threaten veterans with delays in veteran benefits. Sigh.

Is Joe Biden REALLY Reverend Kane from Poltergeist II??

US Core Inflation Rises In April To 4.7% Despite M2 Money Growth Crashing To -4.6% YoY, More Rate Hikes Forecast (Damn It, Janet [Yellen])

Damn it, Janet (Yellen)!

So much for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s proclamtion that inflation is transitory and would subside to under 2%. April’s core inflation (PCE Deflator) rose to 4.7% YoY. Despite M2 Money growth crashing to -4.6% YoY.

Today’s Fed Funds Futures data is pointing to another rate hike or two.

With Core PCE at 4.7%, the Taylor Rule suggested Fed Funds Target rate is now 10.57%. So, The Fed is only about half way there.

Damn it, Janet, people are suffering from the ravages of inflation and you laugh.

Biden’s Broken Economy! April’s US Existing Home Sales Plunge -22.6% Since Last Year For 17th Straight Month Of Negative Growth (23 Straight Months Of Negative REAL Wage Growth)

Biden has a line on you! And it isn’t good. More like we are fish being caught and eaten by Washington DC bureaucrats.

Another example of Biden’s dismal economy. US pending home sales plunged -22.6% YoY in April. Even worse, REAL weekly wage growth has been negative for 23 straight months!

What I like about the Biden/Yellen economy? Nothing!!

Biden’s Peggy Lee Economy: Is That All There Is? GDP QoQ Prints At Anemic 1.3%, Core Inflation Prints Hotter At 5.0% QoQ Despite Trillions In Federal Spending

Peggy Lee sang it best about the US economy under Biden: Is that all there is?

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), US GDP QoQ rose slightly to an anemic 1.3%. Actually, this is a terrible print given the trillions in Federal spending after Covid.

Even worse, Core Inflation (PCE core prices) rose to 5%. So, unlike what Treasury Secretary Janet “Transitory” Yellen said, core inflation remains high despite M2 Money growth crashing.

Here is the rest of the story.

Before conservatives have a meltdown over the comments that will be forthcoming from Biden’s Press Secretary Karine Jean=Pierre, bear in mind that she was senior advisor and national spokesman for hard-left progressive advocacy group MoveOn.org.

She will feel obligated to howl and scream about the debt ceiling and budget with idiocy like “the economy will crash and burn if you cut Biden’s proposed budget.” Gee, for the trillions that Biden has spent, we only got 1.3% GDP growth. So her logic will be “President Biden spent trillions and we got only 1.3% GDP growth! Imagine if we spend less????”

US Credit Rating at Risk of Fitch Cut on Debt-Limit Impasse (Even Japanese Yen Is Whipsawwing)

What happened to Biden? He used to be a “reasonable” Senator (reasonable for a racist Democrat, that is), willing to negotiate with the opposition on budgetary issues and the debt ceiling. Now we have “Progressive Joe” who is acting like crazy Progressive Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal from Seattle. {Aka, Seattle’s Worst!} But his newly found Progressive identiy is leading down a terrible path. Rating agencies are putting the US of credit watch because of Biden’s newly found Progressive back bone. (Progressive means progressing towards full blown Communism).

Ratings company warns on worsening political partisanship
US AAA ratings on review with negative implications at DBRS

The tension around the US debt-limit negotiations ratcheted up after Fitch Ratings warned the nation’s AAA rating was under threat from a political standoff that’s preventing a deal.

Fitch may downgrade its assessment to reflect the increased partisanship that is hindering a resolution despite the fast-approaching so-called X date, it said, referring to the point at which Washington runs out of cash. It moved the US to “rating watch negative” under its classification. Meantime, DBRS Morningstar placed the US ratings of AAA under review “with negative implications.”

Markets have been showing increasing nervousness over the standoff, with Treasury-bill yields slated to mature early next month surging past 7%, while the S&P 500 Index has declined for two days. Economists project a US default could trigger a recession, with widespread job losses and a surge in borrowing costs.

Fitch’s warning “underscores the need for swift bipartisan action by Congress to raise or suspend the debt limit and avoid a manufactured crisis for our economy,” said Lily Adams, a spokesperson from Treasury.

Biden’s childish refusal to reduce his insanely huge budget (crammed with pork for large donors and Progressives) is causing ripples to be felt overseas. Look look at the Japanese Yen.

Pramila Jayapal, Joe Biden’s intellectual soulmate.

Biden’s Mortgage Market! Mortgage Demand Decreased 4.6% From Previous Week (Purchase Demand DOWN 30% From Last Year, Refi Demand DOWN 44%)

Between Biden’s push to tax those borrowers with good credit and reward those with bad credit and Rocket Mortgage annoucing 1% down payments in a declining home price economy, Biden’s housing market is looking more like a house of cards.

Here is another bit of bad news for the housing market.

Mortgage applications decreased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 19, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 44 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Here is the rest of the story.

Biden Won’t Default, US Dollar Sinking, Gold Up As Fed Shrinks M2 Money, Cryptos Down (Yellen Running Out Of Money To Spend)

I have gotten a flood of emails and text messages asking about what happens if Biden defaults on the US debt. In short, Biden has made a career out of spending money, as has Speaker McCarthy. They both have an incentive to raise the debt ceiling, but whether it is cuts to Biden’s insane budget (higher than Covid-era spending) and wants to raise taxes on the middle class to pay for it. McCarthy wants a trimmed budget (aka, back to pre-Covid spending levels) and NOT raises taxes. They will eventually agree somewhere in the middle (US Congress member Pramila Jayapal will be outraged, but then again, she is ALWAYS outraged like Senator Elizabeth Warren) and AOC.

The Federal Reserve has taken a brief respite from fighting inflation that they helped cause. But with $188 TRILLION in unfunded entitlements promised by politicians, The Fed will undoubtedly start buying assets again (aka, QEInfinity) and the debt ceiling will keep being raised. In essence, the DC merry-go-round is broken and politicians will keep pushing it around until it collapses.

For the moment, The Federal Reserve is reducing M2 Money (green line). With it, the US Dollar (blue line) has declined. Gold (white line fever) is on the rise along with The Fed’s effective funds rate.

WTI crude is up over 1% this AM. And gold is up 2.29%. Heating oil is up 3.56%.

Face it, I have no confidence in Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, one of the biggest propronents of MMT (modern monetary theory or borrow and spend without consequences). Yellen is NOT making lose my blues.

Cryptos are down this morning across the board.

Like Persistent Inflation, New Home Sales Rise 4.1% MoM In April Despite M2 Money Collapse (Taylor Rule Suggests Target Rate Of 11.78%, So The Fed Is STILL Overstimulating Markets)

Remember when former Fed Chair and current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that inflation was transitory? As usual, Yellen was wrong. Look at April’s new home sales. Up 4.1% since March even through M2 Money growth has collapsed.

The Taylor Rule, based on Core CPI of 5.25% (persistent, not transitory inflation Janet) suggest a Fed target rate of 11.78%. The Fed is at 5.25% and likely to pause rate hikes and maybe even lower rates again.

Wasting Away Again In Bidenville! Core Inflation Rate UP 244% Under Biden, Food UP 46%, Gasoline Prices UP 60%, Rental Growth UP 268% As Biden/McCarthy Negotiate

The US middle class is wasting away in Bidenville. While Climate Envoy John Kerry threatens to seize farms in the name of … climate change? The moral hazard problems associated with farm seizures boggle the mind.

So, everyone keeps talking about the debt ceiling and the fact that America is about to run out of money. How did we just find $375 million dollars AGAIN to ship on over to Zelenskyy?

Biden and McCarthy met on the debt ceiling and nothing has been resolved. They both represent the BIG donor class and big Pharma, big defense, big tech, big media, big tech, anything that is big runs Congress and the Administration. So of course they will finally agree to raise the debt ceiling and continue their insane spending on the donor class.

As of right now, there is no deal to raise the debt limit. Biden wants to raise the already insane and irresponsible Federal budget. McCarthy wants no new taxes. Who will cave in this game of chicken? My guess is that McCarthy will cave. Biden may whip out the 14th Amendment to bypass McCarthy and Congress, but this makes Biden a dictator (which would suit him fine, but would be a horrible precedent).

Core Inflation Rate UP 244% under Biden, Food UP 46%, Gasoline Prices UP 60%, Rental Growth UP 268%. What a disaster under Biden’s Reign of Error.

But at least the Biden family are getting wealthy beyond comprehension. Isn’t that Ashley Biden in the blue?

All Quiet On The Default Front As Biden Dithers The Night Away And Regional Bank Stocks Decline On Fed Tightening

Like the famous novel “All Quiet on the Western Front,” its “All Quiet on the Default Front” as China Joe and Speaker McCarthy are set to meet again. In short, Biden wants to raise taxs on middle class and McCarthy wants to return Federal spending to pre-Covid levels. Sure, Biden throws around the Bernie Sanders’s tax on millionaires and billionaires line, but they know that M&Bs have professional accounts and lawyers to protect them while the middle class has Turbo Tax and H&R Block.

In any case, markets are calm (the calm before the storm?) although I think Biden WANTS to default and blame Republicans ahead of Biden’s reelection. The media will mindlessly repeat DNC talking points. So Biden is covered. After all, he says it isn’t his fault (although it is 100% Biden’s fault if America defaults because of his reckless budget and insane ramblings).

Let’s look at regional banks and the US Treasury SHORT curve: 2Y-3M. Notice that regional bank stocks have gotten demolished as The Fed tightens.

US Treasury cash balance remains dangerously low as Biden and Yellen dither the night away.

Bankrupt Biden. The US, not the Biden pay-to-play family.

I wish we could seize all the Biden family assets if Old Joe defaults. Or at least make Hunter Biden take care of his child Navy and let the poor child get rich off the Biden name.