Tag: @GoldSilver_com

Still Crazy After 4 Years Of Biden/Harrisnomics! Core Consumer Prices (Inflation) Up For 50th Straight Month, Hits New Record High (Up 3.2% YoY)

Core inflation is still hot at 3.2% YoY, although cooling.

Following last month’s ‘deflationary’ print (-0.1% MoM), analysts expected headline CPI to rise 0.2% MoM and they were spot on, shifting the YoY CPI print to 2.9% (from 3.0%) – the lowest since March 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI also rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), and the YoY rate of inflation slowed to 3.2% (from 3.3%) – the lowest since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

However, that is the 50th straight month of MoM increases in Core CPI, and a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, used car prices fell 2.3% along with airline fares (-1.2%) while Car insurance costs jumped 1.2% and furniture prices rose 0.3%…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the so-called SuperCore CPI rose 0.2% MoM (same as the rest), dragging the YoY down to 4.73% (still notably elevated)…

Source: Bloomberg

A sad reminder about the impact of Biden/Harrisnomics on food prices.

Inflation is still crazy after 4 years of Biden/Harris. What will The Fed do?

Big Short Redux CMBS Style, Top AAA-rated CMBS Experienced $40 Million Loss In May (First Time Since 2008 Financial Crisis)

Is this The Big Short, CMBS style?

The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years.

The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has QUADRUPLED in 1.5 years.

Delinquencies are currently rising at a faster pace than during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
A top AAA-rated CMBS experienced a $40 million loss in May for the first time since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

While not an office, Edward Hopper painted some great real estate properties!

Kama Kameleon! Fed Loses Record Amount, Bankrupty Filings (Chap 11) Highest In 13 Years, Foreign Investors Pulling Out Of China

Kama Kameleon.

Kamala Harris, despite being VP for almost 4 years, is going to annouce her plans for taming inflation. Why doesn’t she do it now?? What Harris can’t control is The Federal Reserve that is losing money at breakneck speed.

Here is The Fed’s balance sheet.

I shudder to think what Harris will propose to solve the highest bankrupty (Chap 11) rate in 13 years. Probably more Bidenomics (big wealth transfers to large corporations/donors).

Meanwhile, foreigns pulled a record amount of funds from ailing China.

Kamala Harris will say anything to get elected, then fall back on her Communist agenda.

Trouble With The Curve! US Yield Curve Rises Above 0 Slope While Mortgage Rates Fall

We know several things about the yield curve. First, it goes negative before recessions. Second, it is related to the inverse of The Fed’s target rate (blue line).

How about the US mortgage rate? Generally, US Mortgage rates are inverse to the 10Y-3M yield curve, but lately the US mortgage rate (pink circle) have declined with the 10Y-3M yield curve.

The yield curve does forecast recessions, but is unreliable in forecasting mortgage rate movements.

Mortgage Purchase Applications Rise In Latest MBA Survey But Still Down -11% Since Same Week Last Year (MBS Convexity Rising As Rates Decline)

The slowing US economy has a silver lining: Treasury and mortgage rates are declining. And the is spurring faster mortgage prepayments.

Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 2, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous week and was 59 percent higher than the same week one year ago. 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.55 percent from 6.82 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

The deciine in rates led to an increase in MBS convexity.

Watch out! Mortgage convexity continues to rise!

Meanwhile, Kamala “The Kommie” Harris laughs.

The Fed Money Printing And Stock Prices And Housing Prices (Why The Fed Must Keep On Printing!)

The Fed’s theme song: Keep on printing!

Look at this chart of the S&P 500 index against M2 Money stock.

And this chart of Case-Shiller home prices against M2 Money.

Bottom line? The Fed has to keep on printing money. Otherwise, the US economy will collapse like a cheap building.

Here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell creating assets bubbles.

That’s Bidenomics! Intel Lays Off 15k Workers Despite $8.5 BILLION From Chips Act (Intel Craters Over -50% In 4 Months)

Bidenomics (actually Biden/Harrisnomics) is all about huge payoffs to large, powerful donors. A good example is The Chips Act, intended to bring chip manufacturing back to the US from Taiwan, China, etc. Biden/Harris doled out $8.5 BILLION to Intel … which just laid off 15% of it’s labor force or 15k workers.

Intel has suspended dividends and its stock price has crashed from above $45 in March now down to $21.48, a 53% loss in 4 months.

Bear in mind that a Harris Presidency would be more of the same wasteful, Communist-style centralized economic (mis)management. Perhaps even worse.

And on that dreadful jobs report on Friday, the VIX fear index soared (white line) to its highest level since March 2023.

Commercial Real Estate Is Dying! NY CRE Property Sells For 97% Discount At Auction (135 W 50th St)

The US commercial real estate sector is dying, like an episode of The Twillight Zone.

Example? This is 135 W 50th St in NYC. In 2006, this building sold for $332 million. Yesterday it sold for $8.5 million at auction. A 97% discount!

It is mostly smaller banks with large CRE exposure.

Biden/Harrisnomics In One Chart! Treasury Interest Outlays Exceed Entire Defense Outlays (Medicare And Social Security Lead Government Outlays)

Here is Biden/Harrisnomics in one chart! Treasury (interest) payments are growing faster than other government outlays and a larger than the entire Defense outlays. Leading outlays include Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security.

Here is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen symbolically gorging on a foot-long sub. No one spends like unelected government bureaucrats!