Slow Down? Existing Home Sales Rise YoY For First Time Since July 2021 (Near 2010 Levels, So Barely Rising)

Its a slow down in the housing market.

Existing Home Sales were expected to rebound modestly in October (+2.9% MoM) after dropping for 6 of the last 7 months to the lowest levels since 2010, and they did. Sales rose 3.4% MoM (a beat) but thanks to a downward revision for September from -1.0% to -1.3% MoM. What is most shocking about the shift is that it pushed the YoY change for existing home sales positive (+2.9% YoY) for the first time since July 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

…but in context, that shift up to 3.96mm SAAR homes sold is nothing…

Source: Bloomberg

High borrowing costs have led to a shortage of previously owned homes on the market, discouraging many would-be home sellers from listing their properties for sale and having to part with their current low financing costs.

“Additional job gains and continued economic growth appear assured, resulting in growing housing demand,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.

“While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”

Last month, the inventory of available homes edged up 0.7% to 1.37 million, continuing to trend higher although well below pre-pandemic levels.

Despite the weakness in sales, tight inventory is keeping prices elevated, yielding one of the least affordable housing markets on record. The median sale price last month increased 4% from a year earlier to $407,200, the highest ever for any October, the NAR figures show.

Contract signings rose in all four US regions, led by a 6.7% jump in the Midwest.

Sales of single-family homes increased 3.5% in October; purchases of condominiums and co-ops were up 2.7%

Finally, while that’s all very exciting – a scintilla of growth off almost record lows – the fecal matter is about to strike the rotating object as rising mortgage rates lagged impact threatens…

Source: Bloomberg

In October, 59% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month, compared with 57% in September, and 19% sold above the list price. Properties remained on the market for 29 days on average, compared with 28 days in the previous month. First-time buyers made up 27% of purchases, still historically low.

Already Gone! Mortgage Applications Rise Since Last Week, But Mortgage Purchase Applications Down -60% Under Biden/Harris

Fortunately, the Biden/Harris administration is winding down. On the mortgage side, the mortgage market is already gone under Biden/Harris where mortgage purchase applications are down a whopping 60%.

Mortgage applications increased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 15, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. And down -60% under Biden/Harris.

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Slowing economy, rising rates, too expensive housing. Not a good sign for the mortgage market.

Bungle In The Economic Jungle! Existing Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low (Lowest Since 2010)

We are in the jungle. And its a bungle in the economic jungle.

Existing home sales disappointed (yet again) in September, declining 1.0% MoM (vs expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise). August’s 2.5% MoM drop was revised up to a 2.0% MoM drop, but still left existing home sales down 3.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Total sales SAAR dropped to 3.84mm, the lowest since 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

Even with the weaker September sales figures, “factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said in his ubiquitously optimistic statement.

“There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy.”

First-time buyers made up 26% of purchases, matching an all-time low.

Some 1.39 million homes were for sale in September, up 23% from a year earlier, the NAR report showed. The supply of homes still remains below pre-pandemic levels.

At the current sales pace, available inventory would last 4.3 months, the longest in more than four years.

The median sales price rose 3% in September from a year ago to $404,500.

Around the country, previously owned home sales dropped in three of four regions, including a 1.7% decline in the South to the slowest pace since the start of 2012.

Closings fell 2.2% in the Midwest to a 13-year low, and 4.2% in the Northeast. Sales rose 4.1% in the West, driven by California and Arizona.

While the short-term (lagged) may bring an improvement in existing home sales (based on the lagged impact of declining mortgage rates), as the chart below shows, since The Fed unleashed its rate0cutting cycle, mortgage rates have risen aggressively once again…

Source: Bloomberg

…not a good sign for the housing market’s affordability.

However, inventory problems could persist since “84 percent of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, so the number of sellers that would be financially incentivized to sell would remain limited,” Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at title insurance giant First American Financial Corp. said in the report.

Watch Harris laugh insanely if confronted with this news.

Cottage Cheese? Mortgage Applications Down 17% Since Last Week, Purchase Applications Down -60% Under Biden/Harris (Housing Prices Up 34.2% Under Biden/Harris While Mortgage Rates Up 138.6%)

I would like to see Kamala Harris explain why mortgage purchase applications are down -60% under Biden/Harris Presidency. Other than a word salad answer. Or Cottage Cheese.

Mortgage applications decreased 17.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 17 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 26 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Housing prices are up 34.2% under Biden/Harris while mortgage rates are up 138.6%.

Simply Unaffordable! Home Affordability in the US Sinks to Lowest Point Since 2007, Home Prices UP 35%, Mortgage Rates UP 148% Under Biden (Mortgage Purchase Applications DOWN 12% YoY)

Housing in the US is simply unaffordable. Particularly since home prices and mortgage rates have soared undier Biden.

.Owning a house is less affordable for average earners in the US than at anytime in 17 years.

The costs of a typical home — including mortgage payments, property insurance and taxes — consumed 35.1% of the average wage in the second quarter, the highest share since 2007 and up from 32.1% a year earlier, according to a new report from Attom.

Growth in expenses, along with mortgage rates hovering around 7%, have outpaced income gains as a persistent shortage of listings pushed the median home price to a record-high $360,000, Attom said. In more than a third of US markets, ownership costs ate up 43% of average local wages, far above the 28% considered to be a guideline for affordability.

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The latest data “presents a clear challenge for homebuyers,” Rob Barber, chief executive officer of Attom, said in a statement. “It’s common for these trends to intensify during the spring buying season when buyer demand increases. However, the trends this year are particularly challenging for house hunters.”

Pricey markets in the West and Northeast had the biggest declines in affordability, including Orange and Alameda counties in California, and Brooklyn and Nassau County in New York.

Among the 589 counties analyzed, 582, or 98.8%, were less affordable in the second quarter than their historic affordability averages, Attom said.

It appears that the US housing market is addicted to gov. Doctor, doctor (Yellen), we’ve got a bad case of unaffordable housing.

On the mortgage side, mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 28, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 29 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Wasting Away Again In Bidenville! US New Home Sales Crashed In May (Near 7% Mortgage Rates Aren’t Helping)

It seems everything Biden touches turns to stone. This used to be called “The Medusa Touch” but I changing that to “The Biden Touch.” And that includes housing. Or we can simply sing along with the late Jimmy Buffet and “Wasting aways again in Bidenville.”

And near 7% mortgage rates aren’t helping (as The Fed continues its fight against Bidenflation).

US new home sales were expected to dip 0.2% MoM in May… but they didn’t..

New home sales crashed 11.3% MoM (after April’s 4.7% drop was revised up to a 2.0% MoM rise). That is the biggest MoM drop since Sept 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest YoY drop since Feb 2023, taking the SAAR down to the same level as it was in 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

Median new home price fell 0.9% YoY to $417,400 – lowest since April 2023 – (with the average selling price at $520,000) with a big downward revision for April from $433k to $417k!…

Source: Bloomberg

For the first time since June 2021, median existing home prices are above median new home prices…

Source: Bloomberg

As BofA warned yesterday:

“The US housing market is stuck, and we are not convinced it will become unstuck anytime soon. After a surge in housing activity during the pandemic, it has since retreated and stabilized. We view the forces that have reduced affordability, created a lock-in effect for homeowners, and limited housing activity will remain in place through our forecast horizon “

At the same time, the supply of available homes increased to 481,000, still the highest since 2008.

Source: Bloomberg

New home sales are catching down to the reality of mortgage rates continuing to hold above 7%…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems homebuilders finally gave up filling that gap in anticipation of an imminent Fed rate-cut to save the world.

Will Biden double down on his failed policies tonight in the CNN Presidential debate? Perhaps Joe can sing “Double Shot of Bidenomics.”

Highway To Hell? Sentiment For Home Buying Nears All-time Low As Mortgage Rates Remain High, 30Y Treasuries On Track For 3rd Worst Return Since 1919 And China Continues To Dump US Treasuries (Home Prices UP 34% Under Biden, Mortgage Rates UP 165%)

The US is on a “Highway to Hell!” thanks to flawed economic policies under Biden.

First, interest and mortgage rates under Biden have soared driving buying conditions for housing to all-time lows. Combine sky-high home prices with high mortgage rates and we have as serious affordability crisis.

Second, on the interest rate front, the 30-year Treasury bond is on track for the 3rd worst annual return since 1919 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not not the current invasion, but the 1919 invasion.

Third, China is dumping their holdings of US Treasuries and Agency Debt at record rates.

Of course, mortgage rates hit 18% in 1981. So, the term high mortgage rates is relative. The US had low rates for too long (Bernanke/Yellen) and mortgage rates are now in the 7% range, up 165% under Biden. And home prices are up 34% since Biden was sworn-in as President. Wow! Mortgage rates up 165% and home prices up 34% under Biden’s Reign of Error.

Well done, gentlemen! … NOT!

Biden’s Wreck Of The US Economy! Mortgage Demand Fell To New 30-year Low In January, Down 54% From Pandemic Peak (Mortgage Demand Down 14% Over Last Year And 40% From Pre-Pandemic Levels)

Yikes! Bidenomics is a disaster! MBA mortgage purchase applications are down 54% from Pandemic Peak. I was going to play “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” by Gordon Lightfoot and rename it “The Wreck of The US Economy.”

Mortgage demand fell to a new 30-year low in January 2024, down 54% from the pandemic peak. Mortgage demand is down 14% over the last year and 40% from pre-pandemic levels.

Mortgage applications decreased 7.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 26, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment to account for the MLK holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 7.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent lower than the same week one year ago.