New Homes For Sale Near Financial Crisis Highs (Big Short Redux?)

I sure hope this isn’t a repeat of the financial crisis! But new homes for sale have ballooned to financial crisis levels.

Home sales have dropped below year-ago levels, presaging likely declines in mortgage supply and turnover. With completed-home inventories hitting post-global financial crisis (GFC) highs, regional surpluses are emerging as key home-price factors, setting the stage for widening pockets of price weakness in the months ahead.

Contributing to the glut of new homes for sale is the rising prices AND higher mortgage rates.

US Q2 Real GDP Remains At 2.9% (So Much For The Doom Forecast Of Tariffs Crashing The US Economy)

So much for the doom porn from the media about the US economy collapsing due to Trump’s tariffs! The US economy (real GDP) in Q2 is still growing at 2.9%.

Latest estimate: 2.9 percent — June 27, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from 3.4 percent on June 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 2.07 percentage points to 3.49 percentage points was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcasted GDP growth contribution of inventory investment from -0.42 percentage points to -2.22 percentage points.

Here is the data.

And with Democratic Socialist (aka, Communist) Zohran Mamdani winning the Democratic nomination for mayor, New York City will likely become the new Detroit.

Going Down! New Home Sales Plunged In May As Mortgage Rates Rose (Worst Since June 2022)

New home sales are going down.

New home sales plunged in May, the biggest MoM drop since June 2022.

The median sales price increased 3% from a year ago to $426,600 last month, marking the first year-over-year price gain in 2025.

The plunge in new home sales came as mortgage rates ticked back higher.

Another example of the carnage left behind by President Autopen (Joe Biden).

Keep On Printing? Home Prices Slow In April, But Still Up 2.64% YoY As Fed Continues To Print Money

The Fed continues printing money! And home prices continue to rise on year-over-year basis, but falling on a month-over-month basis.

Home prices in April tumbled 0.31% MoM (-0.02% exp) – the biggest MoM drop since Dec 2022.

But if we look at the national home prices via S&P Case-Shiller and YoY rather than MoM, home prices ROSE 2.64% YoY.

You can see the damage to homeownership caused by Covid and The Fed. The massive expansion of M2 Money in 2020 was followed shortly by rapid increases in home prices. This was followed by a normalization in Fed M2 Money printing. Consequently, home price growth has slowed.

Bits And Pieces? US Household Net Worth Fell By -0.93% In Q1 2025 As Bitcoin Falls Below 100k

The housing markets is in bits and pieces following The Fed’s fickle management of interest rates and Biden’s disastrous spending policies. U.S. household net worth fell by 0.93% in 1Q2025 … largest decline since 3Q2022, but not necessarily comparable to that quarter in terms of magnitude.

Bitcoin just broke below $100k.

What will The Fed? As I have said over and over again, The Fed needs to cut rates.

Crazy Train! Mortgage Applications Decreased 2.6 Percent From One Week Earlier (Home Prices Rose 39% Under Biden While Mortgage Originations At Large Banks Fell -61%)

All aboard! The crazy mortgage train! Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%. The mortgage market is still recovering from Bidenomics!

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 13, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Home prices rose 39% under Biden while mortgage originations at large banks fell -61%.

Trump’s Economy In Q2 Growing At 3.5% As Fed Keeps On Printing!

The Fed’s themesong: Keep on printing!

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on June 17, down from 3.8 percent on June 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government expenditures growth decreased from 2.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent, while the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.9 percent to -1.4 percent.

GDP growth corresponds to Fed money printing.

Here is the breakdown. True, real GDP growth has been slowing over June.

Simply Unaffordable? US Homebuilder Confidence Tumbles Near 13-Year-Lows Due To Post-Covid Home Price Gains (And Higher Mortgage Rates)

Thanks a lot Fed! Home prices rose dramatically after Covid as The Fed printed billions of dollar of currency (M2). Making housing unaffordable for much of America.

As a result of higher mortgage rates and higher home prices, homebuilder confidence is at a 13 year low (back to 2012).

Housing is simply unaffordable thanks to bad housing policies and The Fed.

Should Trump Fire Powell? YES (Fed Hasn’t Removed The Covid Stimulus And Should, Rates Too High)

Should President Trump fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell and replace his with someone else like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent? The answer is … YES!

Why? First, there was a massive response to the Covid outbreak in 2020. And the monetary stimulus (aka, stimulypto) has never been removed.

The Fed Funds Target Rate (upper bound) remains high at 4.50% and M2 Money supply is $21.8 TRILLION.

Second, The Fed could help reduce the interest paid on the massive Federal debt load when the debt if refinanced.

The US Treasury yield curve tends to follow anticipated Fed moves.

Of course, The Fed should be abolished. But a step in the right direction would be to fire “Foul Powell” who is on the prowl.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

CMBS Office Serious Delinquencies At 10.59% As US Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

I’ll feel a whole lot better when CMBS office serious delinquenies get below 10%. But serious delinquencies on office space is currently at 10.59%.

The US Treasury yield curve is steepening.

Office delinquencies are likely to rise in Los Angeles as Governor Newsom sits on his greasy hands as LA burns.