Gimme Shelter! Fed Leans Toward Another Hike, Defying Staff’s Recession Outlook (Shelter CPI UP 8.2% YoY, Food CPI UP 8.5% YoY)

Gimme (cheap) shelter.

Two of the biggest items for consumer are housing and food. Shelter inflation (CPI) is still growing at 8.2% YoY and food is still growing at 8.5% YoY.

Federal Reserve officials appear on track to extend their run of interest-rate hikes when they meet next month, shrugging off their advisers’ warning of recession with a bet that they need to do a little more to curb inflation.

Minutes of last month’s policy meeting showed officials dialed back expectations of how high they’ll need to lift rates after a series of bank collapses roiled markets last month. Still, officials raised their benchmark lending rate a quarter point to a range of 4.75% to 5%, as they sought to balance the risk of a credit crunch with incoming data showing price pressures remained too high. 

They did so even after hearing from Fed staff advisers that they were forecasting a “mild recession” later this year.

Officials agreed “some additional policy firming may be appropriate,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee gathering, a posture several Fed speakers have reiterated in recent days. 

Policymakers “commented that recent developments in the banking sector were likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation,” the minutes said, though they agreed the extent of the effects was uncertain. “Against this background, participants continued to be highly attentive to inflation risks.”

Sympathy for the Biden Administration and Federal Reserve? They caused this unholy disaster.