Revelio Labs Found 60.1 US Jobs Added In September (Q3 GDP At 3.8%)

Due to the ongoing government shutdown – now in its third day – the BLS did not release the September jobs report this morning forcing traders and the Fed to “fly blind.” Or blinder than usual. And with ADP reporting earlier this week that some 32,000 jobs had been lost in September, putting markets and economists on edge and the US economy on the verge of a labor recession, the lack of data could not have come at a worse time. Luckily, private sector alternatives to the BLS do exist and, in many cases, are far more accurate and certainly less politicized.

The latest Revelio Labs number (+60.1k) is very notable as it suggests that the labor picture is nowhere near as bad as ADP indicated. In fact, as shown in the chart below, in September the Revelio Labs data set showed the best monthly increase in jobs in 2025!

The Federal Reserve will do what they want and will likely ignore the good report from Revelio. Besides, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is at 3.8% for Q3.

Here is the GDP breakdown.

Here Comes The Fed? ADP Payrolls Crash To -32,000, Worst Since March 2023

This should get The Fed to cut rates! ADP reported that in September, the US private sector shed 32,000 jobs, the worst print since March 2023.

Here is the breakdown.

Shutdown! Mortgage Demand Falls 12.7% From Previous Week (Purchase Index Fell 2%, Refi Index Fell 21% As Mortgage Rates Rose)

Shutdown!

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with the view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived.

Yes, the Federal government has shut down.

Downshift! US Home Prices Fall By 0.7% In September, 5th Straight Month Of Declines (Tampa Leads The Decline Followed By San Francisco)

US home prices are downshifting to a lower gear.

Home prices across the top 20 cities in the US fell by 0.07% MoM (less than the 0.2% decline expected) – the fifth straight monthly drop in prices. This pulled the YoY price appreciation down to 1.82%, the lowest since July 2023.

The U.S. housing market continues its dramatic shake-up, with 7 cities seeing outright price declines YoY, lead by Tampa FL.

Denver -0.6%
San Diego -0.7%
Phoenix -0.9%
Dallas -1.3%
Miami -1.3%
San Francisco -1.9%
Tampa -2.8%

On the up side, Attom lists the following big gainers in price.

#10 – Wichita County, Texas

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 21.3%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $207,280

#9 – Whitfield County, Georgia

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 21.5%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $279,500

#8 – Tompkins County, New York

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 22.1%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $420,000

#7 – Fayette County, Pennsylvania

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 22.3%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $165,000

#6 – Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 23.1%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $139,500

#5 – Jackson County, Michigan

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 23.2%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $232,920

#4 – Kankakee County, Illinois

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 24.6%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $233,750

#3 – Tom Green County, Texas

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 26.8%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $283,231

#2 – Saint Louis County, Missouri

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 28.2%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $312,500

#1 – Jasper County, Missouri

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 32.1%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $241,894

A simple model of national home prices? Try Fed money printing.

Pending Home Sales In August Surge 4% YoY (Lower Rates Helping, Rates Peaked At 18.63% In 1981)

August data for the US housing market has been ‘mixed’ to say the least with a surge in new home sales (thanks to a massive rise in incentives from homebuilders) and a small decline (near multi-year lows), leaving this morning’s pending home sales data as the tie-breaker (with expectations of an ‘unch’ shift MoM).

It appears the drop in mortgage rates is driving some purchase activity as pending home sales soared 4.0% MoM in August – the most since March – dragging sales up 0.5% YoY.

Mortgage rates are falling, helping existing home sales. Note that the 30-year mortgage rate peaked at 18.63% in 1981.

Zowie! Q3 2025 Real GDP At 3.9% (Driven By Existing Home Sales)

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!!

Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — September 26, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points.

Existing home sales helped drive higher GDP growth.

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!

Mortgage Defaults (CDR) Surging After Rate Reset (Did Jay Powell And The Blackhearts Wait Too Long To Cut Rates??)

In addition to soaring sellers to buyers ratio in US housing markets, we now have surging mortgage default risk (CDR) after mortgage rate resets.

Did Powell and The Fed (aka, Jay Powell and the Blackhearts) wait too long to cut rates?

Here is the soaring ratio of home sellers to buyers. OOOGG!!!

Buyers’ Jubilee? 35.2% More Home Sellers Than Buyers In U.S. Housing Market In August

August represents a massive switch from 3 years ago when there were nearly 40% more home buyers and sellers in the US housing market. There are now 35.2% MORE home sellers than buyers!

Funky Cold Jerome! US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Rises/Steepens, Particularly At The 10-year Tenor (As Of Yesterday, The 30-year Mortgage Rate FELL To 6.17%)

It’s Friday and the US Treasury yield curve is rising/steepening at the 10-year tenor.

As of yesterday, the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.17%

Thanks in part to Funky Cold Jerome!

Fed Post-mortem: 10Y Treasury Yield Rises To 4.13%, 30Y Mortgage Rate Falls To 6.5%, US Dollar Falls

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the God of Hellfire! We should always wait a day to digest Fed’s annoucements since they often make little sense. For example, yesterday the 10Y yield fell below 4% after The Fed’s announcement … then promplty rose above 4% again. And today, the US Treasury 10Y yield rose to 4.1276%