Downshift! US Home Prices Fall By 0.7% In September, 5th Straight Month Of Declines (Tampa Leads The Decline Followed By San Francisco)

US home prices are downshifting to a lower gear.

Home prices across the top 20 cities in the US fell by 0.07% MoM (less than the 0.2% decline expected) – the fifth straight monthly drop in prices. This pulled the YoY price appreciation down to 1.82%, the lowest since July 2023.

The U.S. housing market continues its dramatic shake-up, with 7 cities seeing outright price declines YoY, lead by Tampa FL.

Denver -0.6%
San Diego -0.7%
Phoenix -0.9%
Dallas -1.3%
Miami -1.3%
San Francisco -1.9%
Tampa -2.8%

On the up side, Attom lists the following big gainers in price.

#10 – Wichita County, Texas

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 21.3%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $207,280

#9 – Whitfield County, Georgia

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 21.5%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $279,500

#8 – Tompkins County, New York

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 22.1%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $420,000

#7 – Fayette County, Pennsylvania

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 22.3%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $165,000

#6 – Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 23.1%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $139,500

#5 – Jackson County, Michigan

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 23.2%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $232,920

#4 – Kankakee County, Illinois

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 24.6%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $233,750

#3 – Tom Green County, Texas

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 26.8%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $283,231

#2 – Saint Louis County, Missouri

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 28.2%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $312,500

#1 – Jasper County, Missouri

YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 32.1%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $241,894

A simple model of national home prices? Try Fed money printing.

Mortgage Defaults (CDR) Surging After Rate Reset (Did Jay Powell And The Blackhearts Wait Too Long To Cut Rates??)

In addition to soaring sellers to buyers ratio in US housing markets, we now have surging mortgage default risk (CDR) after mortgage rate resets.

Did Powell and The Fed (aka, Jay Powell and the Blackhearts) wait too long to cut rates?

Here is the soaring ratio of home sellers to buyers. OOOGG!!!

Biden/Fed Reign Of Error? US Housing Starts DOWN 6% YoY (Permits DOWN 11.1% YoY)

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.

Housing starts:

Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.

Housing permits?

Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024

Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.

Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”

US Treasury Yield Curve Points To Zero Relief For Mortgage Market Even If The Fed Cuts Their Target Rate Tomorrow

Participants in the mortgage market are hoping for relief in the mortgage market when The Fed lowers rates tomorrow.

But the reality is the the bond market is expecting declining short-term rates, but not much change at the 10-year tenor.

Mortgage rates have fallen since October 23, 2023 as the yield curve has gradually steepened.

So don’t be surprised if The Fed cuts rates tomorrow and there is little or no reaction in mortgage rates.

House Of The Dying Dollar? US Purchasing Power Of Dollar Fell -18% Under Biden/Powell, But Has Only Fallen -2.5% Under Trump II (Dollar Down -97% Since Fed Estabishment In 1913)

Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913. It is the House of the Dying Dollar.

Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913.

Of course, Trump II is only 9 months old and Biden had 4 long years to destroy the dollar.

US Inflation Headline CPI Rose 0.4% MoM, 2.9% YoY In August (Shelter UP 3.6% YoY)

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY in August.

Shelter (housing) is up 3.6% YoY. Gimme (expensive) shelter!

Of course, Federal government spending is the source of inflation. Notice the lag between Covid spending and resulting inflation.

So much for Trump Tariffs causing runaway inflation.

Prayers for Charlie Kirk and his family. I hope they catch the sick SOB that assassinated Charlie.

Too Much Debt? Auto And Office Debt Markets Are Bursting!

Too much debt?

The car market bubble is bursting! Subprime auto loan delinquency rates have now surpassed 5% for the first time in history. The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED over the last 3 years. Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing.

The office CMBS delinquency rate is at an all-time high.

30Y Mortgage Rates Decline To 6.64% (Repeat Of 1978-1981?)

The good news? The US 30-year mortgage rate fell slightly to 6.64%.

The bad news? It seems to be a milder repeat of the Ford/Carter years of the late 1970s/early 1980s. Rising 10-year Treasury yields and 30-year mortgage rates during the Ford/Carter years … and early Reagan years. The difference? The Federal Reserve is fundamentally different today than previously. With Bernanke/Yellen, The Fed became more “activist” (like Obama/Biden-appoointed District Judges). Powell is returning to the Yellen model of Fed activism … not doing much.

Now the market awaits a rate cut from The Fed at the next FOMC meeting. But 30-year mortgage rates are most closely related to the 10-year Treasury yield than the short-term Fed Funds rate. Theoretically, The Fed could cut their target rate by 25 basis points and mortgage rates could be uneffected. Or even rise.

Here is a video of Fed Chair Jerome Powell trying to lower mortgage rates.

What about the mortgage rates, Fawlty?

Financial Twilight Zone! Home Builder Stock Surges As Homebuilder Sentiment Slumps

I feel like we are in the financial Twilight Zone.

Home builder stock prices have surged, while home builder sentiment has plunged.

Of course, The Fed’s endless money printing isn’t helping the supply side of home building.

To make matters worse, pending home sales remain in the doldrums.

Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook is an embarrasment for committing mortgage fraud, then refusing to step down. And now she has filed a lawsuit against the Trump Administration for wrongful termination. Typical of an Obama appointee!

New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July (Median Price Declines -5.9% YoY Despite Fed Money Printing)

What do you do with The Federal Reserve who keep printing money?

According to the US Census Bureau, New Home Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 0.6 percent (±15.5 percent)* below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent (±14.0 percent)* below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.

Median and Average Sales Price

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2025 was $403,800. This is 0.8 percent (±5.9 percent)* below the June 2025 price of $407,200, and is 5.9 percent (±8.5 percent)* below the July 2024 price of $429,000. The average sales price of new houses sold in July 2025 was $487,300. This is 3.6 percent (±8.0 percent)* below the June 2025 price of $505,300, and is 5.0 percent (±8.6 percent)* below the July 2024 price of $513,200.

Here is a chart of median sales price of new homes against Fed money printing (M2).