Can we ask the US House and Senate if they will ever return US Federal government spending to pre-Covid levels? Both US Federal government spending and public debt are up 56% since the Covid outbreak in 2020.
The answer is no. Politicians thrive on Federal spending.
Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications.
Mortgage demand dwindled since Covid and Biden/Powell and hasn’t recovered.
Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with the view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived.
Home prices across the top 20 cities in the US fell by 0.07% MoM (less than the 0.2% decline expected) – the fifth straight monthly drop in prices. This pulled the YoY price appreciation down to 1.82%, the lowest since July 2023.
The U.S. housing market continues its dramatic shake-up, with 7 cities seeing outright price declines YoY, lead by Tampa FL.
Denver -0.6%
San Diego -0.7%
Phoenix -0.9%
Dallas -1.3%
Miami -1.3%
San Francisco -1.9%
Tampa -2.8%
On the up side, Attom lists the following big gainers in price.
#10 – Wichita County, Texas
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 21.3%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $207,280
#9 – Whitfield County, Georgia
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 21.5%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $279,500
#8 – Tompkins County, New York
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 22.1%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $420,000
#7 – Fayette County, Pennsylvania
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 22.3%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $165,000
#6 – Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 23.1%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $139,500
#5 – Jackson County, Michigan
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 23.2%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $232,920
#4 – Kankakee County, Illinois
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 24.6%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $233,750
#3 – Tom Green County, Texas
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 26.8%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $283,231
#2 – Saint Louis County, Missouri
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 28.2%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $312,500
#1 – Jasper County, Missouri
YOY Percentage Change in Median Home Price: 32.1%
Q3 2005 Median Sales Price: $241,894
A simple model of national home prices? Try Fed money printing.
It will take a while to recover from Biden’s “Reign of Error.” According the US Census Bureau, housing starts are 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate.
Housing starts:
Single-family 890K SAAR, down 7.0% from 957K in July and the lowest since July 2024
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 11% from 453K in July and the lowest since May.
Housing permits?
Single-family 856K SAAR, down 2.2% from 875K in July and the lowest since March 2023
Multi-family 403K SAAR, down 6.7% from 432K in July and the lowest since May 2024
Let’s see if Powell and The Gang drop rates 25 or 50 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting.
Between The Fed’s persistent policy errors and Biden’s centralized mismanagement of the economy, Biden’s Maladministration is the epitome of a “Reign of Error.”
Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913. It is the House of the Dying Dollar.
Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913.
Of course, Trump II is only 9 months old and Biden had 4 long years to destroy the dollar.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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