11 Indications That The US Economy Is In Slow Motion Collapse After 4 Years Of Biden/Harris

Let’s put this in black and white. There are 11 indications that the US economy is in a state of slow motion collapse.

The fact that economic conditions are getting worse is certainly not good news, but it is better to know in advance what is coming. After four years under Joe Biden, the U.S. economy is a giant mess. We have been witnessing a slow-motion collapse right in front of our eyes, and those at the bottom levels of the economic food chain have been experiencing more pain than anyone else. Of course this is one of the biggest reasons why Donald Trump won the election.

Example? Sticky inflation remains far higher under Biden/Harris than it did when Trump was President. Prices remain elevated as you will notice when Christmas shopping!

#1 When the economy is in good shape, holiday spending increases each year.  In 2024, only 16 percent of Americans say that they are going to spend more than last year and 35 percent of Americans say that they are going to spend less…

Americans this holiday season say they are seeing a ghost of Christmas past: inflation.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds inflation is still haunting the buying public, leading to what’s shaping up to be just an average season for retailers. Just 16% of respondents say they will spend more, down two points compared to last year. Forty-eight percent said that they’ll lay out the same amount for holiday gifts, up five points. At the same time, 35% say they’ll spend less, down two points as well.

#2 The number of job openings in the U.S. is now the lowest it has been since January 2021, but unlike January 2021 we don’t have a pandemic to blame our poor performance on…

US job openings tumbled last month to their lowest level since January 2021, a sign that the labor market is losing some momentum. Still, posted vacancies remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that the number of job openings dropped to 7.4 million in September from 7.9 million in August.

Economists had expected the level of openings to be virtually unchanged. Job openings fell in particular at healthcare companies and at government agencies at the federal, state and local levels.

#3 The manufacturing numbers that we are getting are extremely dismal.  For example, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index just experienced an extremely sharp decline

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a critical gauge of the general business conditions in Philadelphia, has reported a significant drop. The actual figure stands at -16.4, a sharp decline that suggests worsening conditions for manufacturers in the region.

This figure starkly contrasts with the forecasted number of 2.9, highlighting a more severe downturn than initially predicted. Analysts had anticipated a positive shift, indicating improving conditions, but the actual data presents a different, more concerning situation.

Moreover, when compared to the previous index value of -5.5, the current reading of -16.4 further emphasizes the severity of the decline. This continuous drop indicates a concerning trend for manufacturers within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.

#4 Thanks to rapidly rising mortgage rates, the average U.S. homebuyer just lost $33,250 in purchasing power in just six weeks…

Mortgage rates hit 7% on October 28, the highest level since the start of summer and up nearly one percentage point from the 18-month low they dropped to in mid-September.

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $442,500 home with a 7% mortgage rate, the daily average 30-year fixed rate on October 28. That buyer has lost $33,250 in purchasing power over the last six weeks; they could have purchased a $475,750 home with the 6.11% average rate on September 17. That was the lowest level since February 2023.

#5 Our cost of living crisis is officially out of control.  According to Bank of America, almost a third of all households “spend more than 95% of their disposable income on necessities such as housing costs, groceries and utility bills”…

Many Americans are still in a tough spot: Nearly 30% of all US households this year said they spend more than 95% of their disposable income on necessities such as housing costs, groceries and utility bills, according to a Bank of America Institute report, up from 2019 levels.

#6 A recent Lending Tree survey discovered that nearly a quarter of all households couldn’t pay their entire power bill at some point within the past year…

LendingTree’s findings about electricity bill costs comes as it reported 23.4% of Americans experienced an inability to cover their entire energy bill or portions of it in the last year, based on Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey data.

#7 The same Lending Tree survey found that about a third of all households had to reduce spending “on necessary things” within the past year in order to pay utility costs…

Needing to cover utility bills prompted 34.3% of Americans to curb their spending on necessary things – or eliminate some altogether – in at least one instance in the prior year, LendingTree said.

#8 As I discussed last week, demand is at record levels at food banks all over the nation…

Why is demand at food banks all over the country higher than it has ever been before?  The media keeps insisting that economic conditions are just fine, but it has become quite obvious to everyone that this is not true.  In particular, the rising cost of living has been absolutely crushing households from coast to coast.  In the old days, most of the people that would show up at food banks were unemployed.  But now food banks are serving large numbers of people that actually do have jobs but that don’t make enough to pay for all of the basics.  The ranks of the “working poor” are growing very rapidly, and this is creating an unprecedented crisis all over America.

#9 During normal times, troubled retailers would at least wait until after the holiday season to throw in the towel.  But we haven’t even reached Christmas and Party City has already announced that it will be closing all stores…

Party City is closing down all of its stores, ending nearly 40 years in business, CNN has learned.

CEO Barry Litwin told corporate employees Friday in a meeting viewed by CNN that Party City is “winding down” operations immediately and that today will be their last day of employment. Staff were told they will not receive severance pay, and they were told their benefits would end as the company goes out of business.

#10 Not to be outdone, Big Lots has announced that all 936 of their remaining stores will be shutting down on a permanent basis…

Big Lots is beginning ‘going out of business’ sales at all its stores across the US, as it prepares to close its remaining locations.

The discount retail chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in September, and has already shut hundreds of stores nationwide.

In a press release Thursday, the company said it would begin the sales at its 963 remaining locations, after a sale to a private equity firm fell through.

#11 As of the end of November, more than 7,000 store closings had been announced in the United States.  That is a 69 percent increase from last year…

According to a report from CoreSight Research, U.S. retailers had announced more than 7,100 store closures through the end of November 2024, which represents a 69% increase compared to the same time in 2023. These closures are spread across numerous different sectors of retail from auto parts to restaurants to pharmacies, leaving many consumers wondering which companies will survive. This brings us to GameStop, the beloved retail gaming store, which has not only been closing hundreds of retail store locations since 2020, but also appears to be on track to close hundreds more of its locations in the very near future.

This is what a failing economy looks like.

Last week, a prominent mall in downtown San Francisco was empty of shoppers in the middle of the afternoon

Look at all of these beautiful Christmas decorations at the Crocker Galleria mall in San Francisco. It’s 4:47 PM and everybody should be shopping and buying Christmas presents for their family, but nobody is in this mall.

There are only three stores left that are open here. The escalators hum on inside this beautiful but empty decorated mall.

Outside on Market Street the fentanyl addicts lay folded over while a street performer sings Last Christmas to an empty Street.

Of course the lack of shoppers at that particular mall is just the tip of the iceberg.

Unfortunately, the truth is that downtown areas all over California “are crumbling under the weight of homelessness and drug addiction”

California’s biggest downtown areas are crumbling under the weight of homelessness and drug addiction, causing a vital part of its economy to dry out.

Cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco have made countless headlines since the pandemic about their drug-infested streets where businesses are quickly pulling out due to high crime rates and low consumer passage.

The number of drug addicts in America is at the highest level ever.

The number of homeless people in America is at the highest level ever.

They are victims of our slow-motion economic collapse, and the holidays will not be very happy for them.

So if you still have food on the table and a warm home to sleep in, you should consider yourself to be incredibly blessed.

Sadly, more Americans are being forced out into the streets with each passing day as the slow-motion collapse of our economy accelerates.

Merry Christmas!

Inflation Still Raging! 30Y Mortgage Rate Rose 141% Under Biden/Harris

Inflation soared under Biden/Harris, primarily due to their outrageous wasteful government spending.

US government spening soared with Covid and politicians enjoyed the unbridled spending.

Let’s see if Trump and Republicans can do any better.

Fed Drops Target Rate By 50 BPS, Assets Smashed, Gold Falls More Than 2% (Fed Predicts Fewer Rate Cuts In 2025)

As expected, Powell and The Fed dropped their target rate by 50 basis points yesterday, deflating some of the air in the asset markets, More rate cuts will come, but at a slower rate.

Gold got clobbered but has somewhat rebounded.

Bitcoin did likewise: dropping like a rock then bouncing back somwhat.

But gold and bitcoin/ethereum are down again.

The CBOE VIX volatility index exploded upwards.

Powell is looking old, like most of Congress and Biden.

BIG Bubbles? Biden/Democrats Spending Spree + FED = Massive Asset Bubbles = OVERVALUATION In Stock Market And Housing (Buffett Indicator, SP500 Mean Reversion, Shiller PE Ratio, CaseShiller To Gov Spending)

Apparently, the late Hawaiian crooner Don Ho foresaw Biden’s irresponsible spending spree. That is, BIG BUBBLES.

Let’s start with the Buffett Indicator (Warren, not Jimmy!). It indicates that the stock market is STRONGLY OVERVALUED.

The S&P 500 Mean Reversion Model also shows the stock market to be STRONGLY OVERVALUED.

How about the Shiller P/E Ratio? Also showing strong overvaluation.

House prices under Biden have exploded partly due to the outrageous Federal spending following COVID.

The Feral Reserve also had a hand in the housing bubble. While mortgage rates remain high (relative to the Trump years), The Fed’s balance sheet remains elevated.

To be sure, some Republicans were complicit in the spending spree. But mostly it was Democrats and the Biden/Harris Administration … which is still doling out millions.

All Aboard The Crazy Train! Biden’s Post COVID Economic “Miracle” Was Just Borrow And Spend (Large Corporations And Few Individuals Benefitted From COVID Spending)

All aboard the Biden/Pelos/Schumer crazy spending train!

Wage and salary income as a percentage of GDP has fallen from over 50% back in 1970 to 43.1% in 2022. And look at the post Covid decline! And the increase in M2 Money.

Meanwhile the US budget balance as a % of GDP has been plunging downwards in recent years.

Despite the slowing economy, pre-tax profits post Covid have SOARED!

Primarily due to reckless/wasteful Federal spending and FEDERAL DEBT that soared.

There you have it! The Biden/Harris economic “miracle” was simply Federal government malspending that benefitted large corporations and few people.

Joe Biden and his woefully corrupt son Hunter of laptop fame.

Biden Boogie! Biden’s Final Punch In The Jaw, Greatest Fiscal Deficit To Start The Year In History, Largest Debt Load, Interest Expense Now Exceeds Social Security

It is the Biden Boogie!

Joe Biden is leaving the Presidency with an attrocious record. While saying he is leaving Trump with the strongest economy in modern times, the is actually leaving Trump and Republicans with a hollow shell for an economy. It is the final punch in the jaw from an angry, failed President.

The following chart shows that in October and November, the US deficit exploded to a staggering $624.2 billion, and even though this included several calendar adjustments – which explains the freak September surplus which as we said was due to calendar effects – the November deficit of $367 billion was $14 billion more than consensus estimates of $353 billion. Worse, combining October and November we find that not only was the combined number of $624 billion some 64% higher than the corresponding period one year ago, but it was also the highest deficit on record for the first two-months of the year (and that includes the spending insanity during the covid crisis).

Putting the deficit in context, the budget deficit in October and November – the first two months of fiscal 2025 – are now officially the worst start a year for the US Treasury on record.

No wonder even Statist Janet Yellen (Treasury Secretary who failed utterly at her job) apologized that her abysmal performance. “I am concerned about fiscal sustainability and I am sorry that we haven’t made more progress,” she said adding that “I believe that the deficit needs to be brought down especially now that we’re in an environment of higher interest rates.” Meanwhile Biden keeps handing out $$$ to Ukraine, Africa, Syria, illegal immigrants and anything else that asks … unless it it American citizens. Man, does Biden HATE America!

Here is Yellen’s record on debt. A total of $15.2 TRILLION under her leadership.

Under Biden/Yellen (don’t forget Senate fools like Schumer and McConnell!), debt interest has surpassed Social Security and Medicare as the second largest government agency expense.

Biden is a classic progressive Democrat, spending other people’s money like a wild man (sort of like California Governor “Greasy Gavin” Newsom’s father. Or grandfather. And let’s not forget the $222 TRILLION in UNFUNDED liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare.

“See Joe, I can destroy California’s economy just like you destroyed the US economy!”


Fahrenheit 451! Sticky Core Inflation Still At 4% YoY (Fed Can’t Douse The Fire Caused By Too Much Government Spending)

We didn’t start the fire … The Fed and Biden/Harris did. And it is still burning.

October STICKY core inflation is still up 4% YoY (year-over-year)

Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) which pushed it up 3.3% YoY (not even close to the 2% mandate)…

Source: Bloomberg

There has not been a single monthly decrease in core consumer prices since Biden too office.

dddd

Between The Fed’s insane monetary policy and Biden/Harris insane fiscal policies, we are living in a world where Ray Bradbury’s novel Fahrenheit 451 becomes a reality. Instead of books burning, it is the US Dollar burning.

Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise 3.9% YoY In September (Only NYC And Cleveland Top 7% YoY)

Rolling into Cleveland to the lake.

NEW YORK, NOVEMBER 26, 2024: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the
September 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S.
home prices recorded a 3.9% annual gain in September 2024
, a slight deceleration from the previous annual gains in 2024.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for September, down from a 4.3% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.2%, down from a 6.0% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.6%, dropping from a 5.2% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.5% increase in September, followed by Cleveland and Chicago with annual increases of 7.1% and 6.9%, respectively. Denver posted the smallest year-over-year growth with 0.2%.

Table 2 below summarizes the results for September 2024. Cleveland and New York top 7% YoY.

We Got Fooled Again! Federal Debt Is UP 236% Since Obama/Biden Were Sworn-in In 2009, Federal Spending Is UP 121% (Unfunded Liabilities [Promises] Now At $221 Trillion)

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. We did get fooled again!

The problem with the national debt can’t be fixed with Mitch McConnell still in the Senate and too many Obama-era political hacks still in Washington DC.

The Obama/Biden era began in 2009 and it still exists despite Trump winning the Presidency for 2025. The Obama/Biden regime along with Congressional assistance drove up US Federal Debt to around $36 TRILLION. That is an increase of a staggering 236% since Obama/Biden were sworn into office in January 2009. And Federal spending is up 121%.

Unfortunately, Trump cannot pull a Javier Milei (Argentina’s libertarian President) and obliterate the bloated carcas of Federal bureaucracy. Democrats and RINOs like Mitch McConnell will work overtime thwarting Trump’s efforts to control the bloat.

And don’t forget the $221 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities (promises) that Congress had made to get elected. That will eventually become Federal debt.

US Housing Starts & Building Permits Slump Back Near COVID Lockdown Levels

As Biden/Harris approve of Ukraine launching missiles against Russia risking nuclear war, we are witnessing a slow down in the US economy. This time, housing starts and permits.

US Housing Starts and Building Permits disappointed in October with the former dropping 3.1% MoM (-1.5% exp) and -0.6% MoM (+0.7% exp) respectively. This is the second straight month of declines for both measures of housing activity.

Source: Bloomberg

That pulled the SAAR totals down to four month lows – hovering just above COVID lockdown levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was very mixed with Single-family permits rising and multifamily permits dropped. Single-family Starts plunged while multi-family Starts jumped…

Source: Bloomberg

As rate-cut expectations have fallen, so have homebuilders actions it seems…

Source: Bloomberg

But homebuilder ‘hope’ remains high…

Source: Bloomberg

With Trump back in charge, how much will Powell and his pals really want to cut rates now?