CPI: No Inflation In June, But Shelter Prices Up 3.8% YoY (Foul Powell On The Prowl)

US prices rose 0.3% MoM in June according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS). And on a YoY basis, inflation rose 2.7% while core inflation rose 2.9%.

Supercore inflation was up 3.017% YoY.

As of May, import prices rose a scant 0.0% MoM and 0.2% YoY.

Shelter rose 3.8% YoY in June while gas utilities rose 14.2%.

And on this news, the yield on 30-year Treasuries rose 5%.

Not a chance that Foul Powell will cut rates now.

The Upside To Tariffs (Trump’s Tariffs Generated Over $25 Billion In Tariffs Under His Second Term)

The U.S. has already brought in nearly $73 billion in revenue from tariffs so far this year, compared to $77 billion in tariff revenue for the entirety of 2024. In Trump’s second term, tariff revenue is over $25 billion.

So much for the hysteria over a stock market crash and massive increase in inflation. Particularly “economists” who say this nonsense. Who are those guys?

Silver Cup? Silver, Money, Debt, And The Decline Of The US Dollar

We got silver?

Tavi Costa at Crescat Capital (founded by my former MBA student at University of Chicago Kevin Smith) produced this excellent chart of silver prices showing the cup and handle of silver prices.

The rise in silver prices corresponds with a deterioration of the US bond market. Look at Treasury futures courtesy of Bravos Research.

Of course, Washington DC’s insane spending has led to insane money printing by The Feral Reserve.

Everyone in Washington DC deserves a “Silver Cup of Failure” for uncontrolled government waste and spending and mismanagement by The Feral Reserve.

Mortgage Applications Increased 9.4 Percent From One Week Earlier While Purchase Index Decreased 13 Percent Compared With The Previous Week

Thank goodness “Statist Joe” Biden is gone. Kamala Harris is still lingering around the edges, while the mortgage and housing markets are still suffering from the Biden/Harris regulatory overreach.

Mortgage applications increased 9.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 4, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.77 percent, its lowest level in three months. After adjusting for the July 4th holiday, purchase applications increased to the highest level of activity since February 2023 and remained above year-ago levels.

Biden claims the foreign leaders have been calling him for advice. Here is one example.

Gov’t Gone Wild! Purchasing Power Of US Dollar Declined 97% Since 1915, US Debt Up 317% Since Jan 2009 (M2 Money Up 210% Since Jan 2009)

It’s Gov’t Gone Wild! That includes The House, Senate, President and Federal Reserve.

The purchasing power of the US Dollar was $1004.4 on 1915-03-01. By 2025-05-01, the purchasing power fell to $31.1, a loss of 97%. Public debt since the last year of GW Bush, Obama/Biden (with a brief hiatus with Trump) rose 317% since January 2009.

M2 Money printing grew 210% since January 2009.

The music??

US Adds 147k Jobs In June, Federal Jobs Decline By -7k (Likely Kills Any Fed Rate Cuts)

So much for the doom porn about tariffs or anything Trump. The US economy is booming. Example? Non farm payrolls (NFPs) in June rose by 147k jobs added.

As opposed to yesterday’s negative ADP report, the NFP continued to grow despite fears of tariffs, etc.

Government employment rose by 73,000 in June. Employment in state government increased by 47,000, largely in education (+40,000). Employment in local government education continued to trend up (+23,000). Job losses continued in federal government (-7,000), where employment is down by 69,000 since reaching a recent peak in January.
Health care added 39,000 jobs in June, similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job gains occurred in hospitals (+16,000) and in nursing and residential care facilities (+14,000).
In June, social assistance employment continued to trend up (+19,000), reflecting continued growth in individual and family services (+16,000).

The positive jobs report likely killed any chance of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting.

Debt Slavery! As Of Q1 2025, GDP Growth Equalled Gov’t Debt (Unfortunately, Big Beautiful Bill Doesn’t Cut Enough Spending)

Finally, US government debt growth (YoY) was approximately equal to US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2025.

Unfortunately, the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is projected to add $3.9 trillion of debt. Unfortunately, there are insufficient spending cuts in the BBB. And the Senate just nixed kicking illegal immigrants off of Federal healthcare programs.

Unfortunately, GDP growth is only expected to be modest with debt growth once again rising faster than GDP growth. As Diane Feinstein once said, politicians are elected to spend money. This, of course, was a ridiculous statement embraced by spend-crazy Democrats and RINOs.

So, Congress has committed American taxpayers to debt slavery.

New Homes For Sale Near Financial Crisis Highs (Big Short Redux?)

I sure hope this isn’t a repeat of the financial crisis! But new homes for sale have ballooned to financial crisis levels.

Home sales have dropped below year-ago levels, presaging likely declines in mortgage supply and turnover. With completed-home inventories hitting post-global financial crisis (GFC) highs, regional surpluses are emerging as key home-price factors, setting the stage for widening pockets of price weakness in the months ahead.

Contributing to the glut of new homes for sale is the rising prices AND higher mortgage rates.

US Q2 Real GDP Remains At 2.9% (So Much For The Doom Forecast Of Tariffs Crashing The US Economy)

So much for the doom porn from the media about the US economy collapsing due to Trump’s tariffs! The US economy (real GDP) in Q2 is still growing at 2.9%.

Latest estimate: 2.9 percent — June 27, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from 3.4 percent on June 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 2.07 percentage points to 3.49 percentage points was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcasted GDP growth contribution of inventory investment from -0.42 percentage points to -2.22 percentage points.

Here is the data.

And with Democratic Socialist (aka, Communist) Zohran Mamdani winning the Democratic nomination for mayor, New York City will likely become the new Detroit.