Hey Big Spenders! 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists say Trump policies will fuel inflation (big spending gov’t +37.7%, US debt up 50% under Biden driving the economy, along with Federal Reserve)

Hey big spenders (Biden, Congress and the 16 Nobel prize winning economists).

June 25 (Reuters) – Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists signed a letter on Tuesday warning that the U.S. and world economy will suffer if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November.

The jointly signed letter, first reported by Axios, says the economic agenda of U.S. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, is “vastly superior” to Trump’s, the former Republican president seeking a second term.

Read the source article from Reuters for the rest of the Marxist clown show. What Joe Stiglitz and other Leftist economists are cheerleading in the excessive post Covid spending spree that Biden and Congress went on. There is a different between a free market system and government directed spending, usually on large donors.

One source of crippling inflation under Biden is (wasteful) government spending, up 37.7% under Biden. Federal debt is up a nauseating 50% under Biden. These levels of spending and debt are NOT sustainable!

Another souce of inflation under Biden has been The Federal Reserve. With Covid. The Fed entered like gangbusters dropping their target rate to 25 basis points and massively increasing their balance sheet. Call this BIDEN 1. Then to squelch inflation, The Fed raised their target rate and slowly started to unwind the balance sheet. We saw a slowing of inflation. Nothing to do with Biden, although I am sure he will take credit for it at Thursday’s debate with Trump.

Inflation was growing rapidly in Biden 1, but inflation started to slow (Biden 2) as The Fed rapidly raised their target rate.

Dallas After Midnight! “Poor National Leadership” As Stagflation ‘Erodes Business Confidence’

Dallas after midnight! Especially with a broken Congress and President.

Philly Fed Services jumped into expansion (to two year highs?), Chicago Fed National Activity Index surged, Case-Shiller home prices hit a new record high but appreciation slowed, Conference Board Expectations hovers near decade lows, Richmond Fed Manufacturing tumbled, Dallas Fed Services improved but remains in contraction…

But, below the hood of the last one we see some more interesting dynamics evolving as revenues and employment decline while prices re-accelerate…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 25th straight month of contraction (sub-zero) for the Dallas Fed Services index and judging by the respondents’ comments, there is a clear place to point the finger of blame:

Poor national leadership and lack of confidence have eroded the business environment.

The Federal Reserve’s recent announcement of no rate cuts in the near future is concerning regarding the immediate and lag effect it could have on the local economy. We have received direct feedback from many of our clients in various industries, and they are increasingly concerned. They are freezing hires and spending, with many reducing spending. The primary reason is the economic stagnation locally and nationally affecting their businesses.
People are adjusting to new economic realities. Few are expecting salary increases and are instead making lifestyle adjustments to deal with higher living costs. Reality is also setting in for the apartment owners we serve. They understand rents aren’t going up and interest rates aren’t coming down. As rate caps expire and loans mature, lenders are having to adapt as well. Ultimately, a lot of private equity (much in the form of individual retirement savings put into syndications) is getting wiped out.
We need a rate cut before we will see any revenue improvement from home sales.
As elections draw near, the political environment worsens, creating more uncertainty in our business.
We feel inflation and fear of more inflation plus the rise in cost of living are holding consumers back. Hopefully we will adapt to the new realities soon.

Customers are concerned about the election, so they are holding off on large purchases.

The lack of building activity is shutting down the appliance industry.
Affordability has become an ever-increasing problem for new car dealers. The price increases of new cars combined with higher interest rates have put new cars out of reach for more and more people.
[Car] inventories continue to swell, and interest rates remain high. Our grosses are off, and margins continue to decline. Profits are down 20 percent from the prior year.
The economy is slowing. The consumer is more cautious and more reluctant to purchase at higher prices and payments.

And finally, this seemed to sum up just how business-owners feel in general about the current occupant of The White House:

“Our outlook depends heavily on the presidential election.

BIG Bubbles! National House Price Index Up 6.3% Year-over-Year in April Despite Mortgage Rates Up 147% Under Biden (San Diego Fast Growing At 10.3% YoY, Portlandia Slowest Growing)

This isn’t a tiny bubble!

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April (“April” is a 3-month average of February, March and April closing prices). The pace of appreciation has slowed from the previous month, reflecting the toll of 7% mortgage rates and low inventory.

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Break Previous Month’s All-Time High in April 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain for April, down from a 6.5% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 8.0%, down from an 8.3% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.2%, dropping from a 7.5% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest annual gain among the 20 cities in April with a 10.3% increase this month, followed by New York and Chicago, with increases of 9.4% and 8.7%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank this month for the smallest year-over-year growth, with a 1.7% annual increase in April.
…
The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends decelerated from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 1.2%, 1.36% and 1.38%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite posted the same month-over-month increase of 0.3% and 0.5% respectively as last month, while the 20-City reported a monthly increase of 0.4%.

“For the second consecutive month, we’ve seen our National Index jump at least 1% over its previous all-time high,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “2024 is closely tracking the strong start observed last year, where March and April posted the largest rise seen prior to a slowdown in the summer and fall. Heading into summer, the market is at an all-time high, once again testing its resilience against the historically more active time of the year.

“Thirteen markets are currently at all-time highs and San Diego reigns supreme once again, topping annual returns for the last six months. The Northeast is the best performing market for the previous nine months, with New York rising 9.4% annually. Sustained outperformance of the Northeast market was last observed in 2011. For the decade that followed, the West and the South held the top posts for performance. It’s now been over a year since we’ve seen the top region come from the South or the West.

Of course, Fed Money Printing is helping drive home price growth. Perhaps too much!

Here is Jerome Powell, Chairman of The Fed Bubble Blowing Machine!!

Better Off Than 3 1/2 Years Ago? Home Prices Up 34% Under Biden (Rising Property Taxes And Home Insurance), Mortgage Rates Up 147%, Rent CPI Up 5.3%

In politics, it is usually discussed whether you are better off today than 4 years ago. Well, not if you are a renter or need to buy a home with mortgage financing.

If you are a homeowner, you are better off in terms of home equty. With the Case-Shiller National home price index up 34% since Biden’s selection as President. That is the good news.

The bad news? Property taxes are soaring and home insurance rates are up.

The worst news? The 30 year conforming mortgage rate is up 147% under Biden.

If you are a renter, you are worse off because of rising rents and the diffculty of transitioning to homeowership. Despite slowing, rental CPI is still growing at 5.3% YoY.

Surprise! US Economic Surprise Index Slumps To -28.10 (Lowest Since 2022)

Well, perhaps bot a genuine surprise. We are aware that the US economy has been slowing as the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus from Covid is wearing out.

The economics surprise index slumped to -28.10, the lowest since 2022.

I feel like the US economy is experiening a Ragnarok change. With the giants (World Economic Forum/UN. etc) winning.

US Existing Home Sales Declined -2.8% YoY In May As Leading Economic Index Falls -2.0% Over Past 6 Months

I am no forune teller, but this doesn’t look to good for old Joe (Biden).

Existing home sales fell -2.8% YoY in May.

US existing home sales fell for the third straight month in May (-0.7% MoM vs -1.0% exp). This left home sales down 2.8% YoY (YoY sales have not increased since July 2021)…

Source: Bloomberg

The total home sales SAAR is push back towards COVID lockdown lows once again at 4.1mm, but prices accelerated to a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

“Home prices reaching new highs are creating a wider divide between those owning properties and those who wish to be first-time buyers,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

“Eventually, more inventory will help boost home sales and tame home price gains in the upcoming months.”

And given that mortgage rates remain stubbornly above 7%, existing home sales show no signs of improving anytime soon…

Source: Bloomberg

The supply of homes on the market increased 18.5% from the same month last year to 1.28 million, but it’s still well below the level seen before the pandemic when mortgage rates were much lower.

Source: Bloomberg

About 67% of the homes sold were on the market for less than a month in May, roughly flat from the prior month, while 30% sold above the list price. Properties remained on the market for 24 days on average in May, compared with 26 days in April, NAR’s report said.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.5 percent in May 2024 to 101.2 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in April. Over the six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024, the LEI fell by 2.0 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.4 percent contraction over the previous six months.

Biden Shrugged: US Housing Starts Fall To COVID Lockdown Lows (Multifamily Starts Down -51.7% YoY In May)

It begs the question: where are the 10+ million illegal immigrants living who have poured over the border under Binden/Mayorkas? Especially when 5+ units housing starts dropped -51.7% since last year (YoY) in May. And the trend under Biden looks terrible!

Despite ugly consumer confidence and soaring mortgage rates, analysts expected a small rebound in housing starts and building permits in May (after April’s disappointing misses). They were wrong… again… as both Starts and Permits plunged MoM (-5.5% MoM and -3.8% MoM respectively)…

Source: Bloomberg

That was the third monthly drop in permits (more forward looking) in a row. Worse still, April Housing Starts were revised lower (from +5.7% to +4.1%), making this miss even worse.

This dragged the SAARs for starts and permits to their lowest since the trough of COVID…

Source: Bloomberg

With Multifamily starts falling back near COVID lockdown lows…

Single-Family 982K SAAR, down 4.8% from 1,031K and the first sub-million print since October 2023
Multi-Family 278K, down 13.7% from 322K and the lowest since March’s 245K (which was the lowest print since covid crash)

Source: Bloomberg

And multi-family permits cratering to their lowest since Oct 2018…

Single-Family permits 949K SAAR, down 2.9% from 977K
Multi-Family permits 382K SAAR, down 6.1% from 407K

And with rate-cut expectations holding near their lows, there is no sign of recovery in home-building yet…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems reality is starting to set in for homebuilders…

Source: Bloomberg

As housing starts plummet, jobs seem to keep growing to record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Will any rate-cut actually move the dial here?

Biden’s Amerika! Top 1% Now Have Higher Share Of Household Wealth Than Entire Middle Class (Struggling Households At 46%)

Now you know why Joe Biden has fund raisers in Hollywood and New York where the elites (the top 1%) live. Biden is the President of The Elites, not the middle class.

How bad it is? The top 1% now have more household wealth than the entire middle class. Note that the recent surge occurred under Trump, but Biden is doing nothing about it.

Further evidence? 46% of households are struggling.

In terms of housing prices, home prices are growing FASTER than average hourly earnings. Again!

Politicians. You can’t trust ANY of them with our money. Or a cookout.

Here is New Yprk Senator Chuck Schumer posing as a middle class American cooking gray hamburgers at super low heat with cheese on top of raw meat. What a fraud!

Is TreasSec Yellen A Genius? Or Slap Shot’s Gilmore Tuttle? Housing Growing At 6.5% While Avg Hourly Earnings Growing At Only 4.1% (Electricity Prices Growing At 6.1%)

US Treasury Secretary (and former Fed Chair) Janet Yellen says the US economy is in excellent shape. Is she a genius and sees something that rest of us don’t? Or is she a partisan thug like Shap Shot’s Gilmore Tuttle?

Yellen brags about rising wages and declining inflation. Well, average hourly earnings YoY are now 4.1%. However, home prices are growing at 6.5% year-over-year (YoY) and electricity prices are up 6.1% YoY. Food CPI grew at 2.1% in May. Yellen ignores the string of 10%+ increases in 2022-2023 making eating unaffoprdable for millions.

I doubt if Yellen could run a lemonade stand in my neighborhood. But like Gilmore Tuttle, maybe she could run a donut shop!

The Streets Of San Francisco! Office Availability Rates Soar In Large US Metro Areas (San Francisco Leads Nation In Office Availability)

I can’t wait to get back where we started from. In terms of the economy.

And the CRE office market is showing disaster. San Francisco office market availability rates have soared in Q1 2024 to over 35%, up from less than 10% in Q1 2019.