Bummer! January Jobs Growth Below Estimates Amid Massive Revisions, Job Gains At +143k (New Sheriff In Town!)

Biden is out and so are the crazy job preferences of his administration (e.g., green energy). There is a new sheriff in town (Donald Trump).

Here’s what the BLS reported in Trump’s first official jobs report since he returned to the White House: total payrolls printed at 143K.

down sharply from an upward revised 307K (256K originally) and missing estimates of 175K.

Looking further back, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 49,000, from +212,000 to +261,000, and when adding the +51,000 revision to December employment in November and December combined is 100,000 higher than previously reported

But while the sequential change in the Establishment survey was notable, what was far more remarkable was the Household survey where we saw massive population related revisions (discussed last night), which pushed the civilian labor force higher by 2.2 million to 170.744 million, while the number of employed workers also increased by over 2.2 million to 163.895 million. As a result, the Household survey has finally caught up to Establishment survey.

Where the jobs are.

Revisions?

The Presidential portrait of Joe Biden.

Trouble In (Potomac) River City! $9.2 Trillion In US Debt Needs To Be Refinanced In 2025 (DOGE Making A Dent In US Debt Owed)

Oh we’ve got trouble in (Potomac) river city … with a capital P and that rhymes with D and that stands for DOGE. But can DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency

In 2025, $9.2 TRILLION of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced. The US now holds $36.2 trillion worth of government debt, meaning 25.4% of the total is set to mature.

The total debt owed by the free-spending Federal government stands at $36+ trillion and growing. The DOGE clock stands at $64 billion and hopefully keeps growing.

Here is Elon Musk warning the members of Congress and the bloated Federal bureaucracy of the wasteful spending by the Feral government.

4 Of USA’s Most Affordable Cities Are In Ohio (Cleveland, Dayton, Cincinnati, Columbus), None In California (Ohio Requires 10 Workdays To Afford Monthly Mortgage Payment)

No, its not 1903. Its 2025 and Dayton Ohio is the third most affordable city in the USA.

Ohio, the cradle of American Presidents (McKinley, Grant, Taft, Benjamin Harrison, Hayes, Garfield, Harding), is also home to 4 of the most affordable cities in the USA, according to The Virtual Capitalist.

Workdays required to afford a monthly mortgage payment is 10 days, near the lowest in the USA (behind West Virginia, Iowa, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi). California is by far the highest at 28 days.

Of course, Ohio will be clobbered by the polar vortex.

Canadiam PM Justin Trudeau will think this is evidence of Trump trying to screw Canada.

Tariffs, Gold And Bitcoin! Gold Stable, Bitcoin And Stock Market Down, Mexican Peso Down And On Verge Of Collapse

As expected, the Trump Administration levied tariffs against Canada, Mexico, China, etc. The short-term result? Gold is stable, Bitcoin fell. Or as Gene Autry sang, “South of the Border (Down Mexico Way)”.

The stock market? Down -1.53%.

And then we have the doom porn about Mexico’s “impending” collapse. The Peso is declining, and Senator Chuck Schumer is getting hysterical about Mexican exports to the USA for Super Bowl Sunday. He incorrectly claimed that most beer is imported from Mexico and avacados for guacamole. Avacados are also grown in the USA, Peru, etc.

Bear in mind that Mexico is like California where the Left holds a supermajority. Hence, Mexico employs destructive economic policies (it could only be worse if California Governor Gavin Newsom was President of Mexico. But Mexico’s impending collapse is years in the making and Trump’s tariffs were only the last nudge over the cliff. Mexico COULD try to get control over the drug and human trafficking cartels, stop illegal immigration and stop the flow of fentanyl.

Bitcoin Versus M2 Money: M2 Increased By 12.7% Under Clueless Joe Biden While Bitcoin Increased By 249% (Retail Holdings Declining As Large Investor Holdings Increase)

Nobel prize winner in economics, Gene Fama, said recently that cryptocurrencies will eventually be worthless. Well Gene, not if The Federal Reserve and other central banks keep printing money.

Global M2 money supply is at $97T and increasing. And with the increase in global M2, bitcoin and other cryptos are likely to keep rising.

On the US side, M2 Money has increased 12.7% under reckless spending Joe Biden while Bitcoin has increased 249%.

Retail investor holdings have declined while large investor holdings as Bitcoin increases in price.

On a different note, the Philadelphia Eagles will be playing the Kansas City Swifties next Sunday.

Spirit Of DC! Biden Handed Trump A Big Pile Of Steaming … Losses (Fed Incurs Losses Of $218 Billion)

The Federal Reserve (aka, The Green Slime) represents the Spirit of Washington DC. A glutenous pig spending trillions it doesn’t have on insane policies. And The Fed ends up funding the insane spending and racking up massive losses.

Trump is inheriting a Federal Reserve w/ not only unprecedented losses of $218 billion, but it’s still losing money; the Fed won’t send the Treasury a dime for the entirety of Trump’s term; that’s never happened since the inception of the Fed – another challenge for Trump.

Not Big Mac! Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December By Up 4.0% YoY (Austin Tx Is Down -12.7% From Peak)

No, Freddie Mac is not a new cheeseburger from McDonald’s. Freddie Mac is a government sponsored enterprised (GSE) that purchases residential mortgages from lenders and assists in the bundling of mortgages into mortgage-backed securities (MBS). They also monitor home prices.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in December. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in December, up from up 3.9% YoY in November. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023.

But let’s look at the dark side of home prices, which is price declines. Led by Communist enclaved Austin Texas, down -12.7% from peak. The next six cities are all in Florida.

I was watching Varney and Company on Fox Business and it dawned on me that Jonathan Hoenig from Capitalist Pig needs to lay off the caffeine!

Maybe Freddie Mac should partner with McDonald’s. After all, clumsy shooter Angel Reese from WNBA’s Chicago Sky just signed with McDonald’s.

Final Slap In Face From Biden? Annual US Existing Home Sales Lowest Since 1995 (As Mortgage Purchase Applications Collapse Under Biden To 1995 Levels)

1995 is notable for housing and music.

US Existing Home Sales rose for the third straight month in December (longest streak since late 2021), rising 2.2% MoM and up 9.3% YoY – the best annual shift since June 2021. However, despite the last rebound, for all of 2024, sales reached the lowest since 1995, when the US had about 70 million fewer people.

And with the lowest existing home sales since 1995, we have mortgage purchase applications at the lowest level since 1995.

Why? The median price of EHS has exploded under Biden.

Mortgage rates are hovering around 7%, same as around 1995.

Simply Unaffordable! The Most Unaffordable And Most Affordable Cities In USA (San Jose/New York City Are Least Affordable, Detroit/Cleveland Are Most Affordable)

Some cities in the USA are simply unaffordable.

The Visual Capitalist calls most unaffordable cities as least affordable. San Jose California and New York City are the two most unaffordable cities in the USA. According to household spending.

On the flip side of the affordability coin is … Detroit Michigan and Cleveland Ohio. Followed closely by Dayton Ohio and El Paso Texas.

Fortunately, I live in Columbus Ohio. the 18th most affordable city in the USA.

Much of the difference amongst cities is land use and construction restraints. And booming/dying local economies.

As a sad reminder about the last four years, Pete Buttigieg will leave his post as Transportation Secretary having spent $7.5 BILLION to build 8 EV charging stations.

Shocker! Under Biden, Home Prices Rose 38.3% While US Population Rose 3.3% (Housing Starts 5+ Unit Multifamily Surged The Most Since 2016)

I remember giving a speech to Federal regulators in Washington DC and discussing the rise of housing rentership in the US. I said the US is veering towards a renter nation.

Today’s housing starts report revealed the biggest MoM jump in multi-family starts since 2016, and the highest SAAR for ‘renter nation’ since Dec 2023.

On a year-over-year basis, 5+ unit (multifamily) starts are are up while 1-unit housing starts are negative.

Unfortunately, the percentage change on a year-over-year basis were negative. -2.6% for 1-unit starts and -27% for 5+ unit (multifamily) starts.

Under Biden, home prices rose a whopping 38.3% while population (if you believe the US Census Bureau) rose 3.3%.

Shocker!