Mortgage applications decreased 6.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 18, 2024.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 90 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Implied volatility in Treasury yields has risen to the highest since December.
SF Woman. That is my name for Kamala Harris, the ultimate political changeling, taking full credit for the economy, then trying to distance herself from Biden. As the US economy continues to contract.
Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists. Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above. Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead.
*Changeling, in European folklore, a deformed or imbecilic offspring of fairies or elves substituted by them surreptitiously for a human infant. According to legend, the abducted human children are given to the devil or used to strengthen fairy stock.
I would like to see Kamala Harris explain why mortgage purchase applications are down -60% under Biden/Harris Presidency. Other than a word salad answer. Or Cottage Cheese.
Mortgage applications decreased 17.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2024.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 17 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The Refinance Index decreased 26 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Housing prices are up 34.2% under Biden/Harris while mortgage rates are up 138.6%.
Perhaps Harris/Walz should adopt the Imperial March from Star Wars as their theme song. Between Biden/Harris uncontrolled immigration disaster helping to destroy New York City, Harris’ statement that she won’t do anything differntly from Biden/Harris is alarming.
The NY Empire survey crashed from +11.5 to -11.9 – the lowest since May. That is the biggest MoM drop since January…
A measure of current new orders plunged nearly 20 points to -10.2 after climbing a month earlier to the highest since April 2023.
The index of shipments decreased almost 21 points to minus 2.7.
The employment index, however, rebounded to 4.1 – the first expansion in a year – while a measure of hours worked also climbed.
Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s gauge of prices paid for materials increased to a six-month high of 29, while an index of prices received by state manufacturers also accelerated.
And with this awful news, the US Treasury yield curve remains downward/upward sloping. I call this the schizophenic yield curve.
There have been to significant jumps in the Federal Debt. The first coming after the financial crisis of 2008 and election of Obama/Biden in 2008. The second with the outbreak of Covid in 2020 and the election of Biden/Harris in 2021.
The Federal (public) debt was just over $10 million when Obama/Biden were elected and it now stands at a staggering $35.7 trillion. That represents over a tripling of the Federal debt under Obama/Biden/Harris. So when asked what she would do diffeerent than Biden, Harris replied “Nothing comes to mind.” That means MORE spending, MORE debt and MORE unproductive Government jobs.
Here is a chart of public debt and GDP under the triumvirate of Obama, Biden and Harris. No, not Julius Caesar, Pompey, and Crassus). But it is feeling like the Roman Empire prior to its collapse.
Here is a chart of government jobs and government expenditures. Great for government workers, bad for everyone else.
Of course, SOMEBODY has to pay the growing gov’t debt burden. Rest assured it won’t be Obama/Biden/Harris.
The Presidential and Vice Presidential debates thus far feature weak moderators asking lame questions. For example, there are still 97 hostages stll held by Hamas and what would the candidates do to get them released? (Hint: Trump/Vance would have sensible responses. Harris would just laugh and say she was raised in a middle class family and Walz would look like a deer in the headlights. Then we have national debt of $36 trillion, $271K per taxpayer.
But the hidden bomb that will never be discussed is unfunded liabilities (entitlements) such as Social Security and Medicare. Currently, unfunded liabilities are $219 TRILLION or $650K per citizen.
Of course, Biden/Harris have let the southern border wide open to criminals and uneducated Democrat voters who will voter for MORE entitlements.
So, when will the lame debate moderators ask HARD questions? And can Harris attempt to answer one hard question without laughing or falling back on lame “I was raised in a middle-class household.” etc.
It turns out that Powell’s “emergency” 50bps rate cut was – drumroll – another major policy mistake by the Fed. Or it is Presidential election interference by The Biden/Harris Administration giving Cacklin’ Kamala as talking point?
Moments ago, the BLS reported that at a time when prevailing consensus was for jobs to continue their recent downward slide sparked by the near-record annual jobs revision and several months of downbeat jobs reports, in September the US unexpectedly added a whopping 254K jobs, the biggest monthly increase since March…
There’s more: unlike previous months where we saw repeat downward job revisions, the BLS said that both prior months were revised up, to wit: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously reported.
Some context: as UBS notes, the moving six-month average on nonfarm payrolls is 167k. The estimate is that 150k is about consistent with a return of the economy to trend growth. Which means that inflation is about to come back with a vengeance, just as the Fed launches its easing cycle.
Remarkably, while payrolls jumped by the most in half a year, the number of employed people also surged, rising by a whopping 430K, also the biggest one-month jump since March.
It wasn’t just the payrolls, however, which came in far stronger than estimates: the unemployment rate also came in stronger than expected, and thanks to the jump in employed workers coupled with the decline in unemployed workers (from 7.115MM to 6.834MM), it dropped from 4.2% to 4.1% (and down from 4.3% two months ago which spared the entire recession panic).
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men (3.7 percent) decreased in September. The jobless rates for adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (14.3 percent), Whites (3.6 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (4.1 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
And here is the rub, because in a vacuum the super strong jobs numbers would have been fantastic, the only issue is that the September blowout comes as the Fed launches an easing cycle and as wages are once again rising as we have warned for the past 3 months. Indeed, in September, the average hourly earnings rose 0.4% sequentially, beating the estimate of 0.3%, while on an annual basis, wage growth was 4.0%, up from an upward revised 3.9% and beating the 3.8% estimate.
One note here: the average workweek for all employees edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in September, which means the hourly earnings increase is not “pure” but rather a function of denominator adjustments. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 40.0 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.7 hours.
What sector had the biggest growth? UNPRODUCTIVE government workers! A record 785,000 government workers were added in September, pushing total govt workers also to a new record high.
The Biden/Harris Administration has given away billions of dollars to foreign nations (like Ukraine) and illegal immigrants so far this year,
– $24,400,000,000 to Ukraine.
– $11,300,000,000 to Israel.
– $1,950,000,000 to Ethiopia.
– $1,600,000,000 to Jordan.
– $1,400,000,000 to Egypt.
– $1,100,000,000 to Afghanistan.
– $1,100,000,000 to Somalia.
– $1,000,000,000 to Yemen.
– $987,000,000 to Congo.
– $896,000,000 to Syria.
– $9,000 per illegal immigrant that has entered the U.S.
And claim that FEMA has no money left for Hurricane Helene victims who have received only $750 per person. So I have plenty of reasons to have no trust or confidence in the Biden/Harris Mal-administration.
Whenever the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope goes negative, it is following by positive slope … then recession. Like clockwork.
Following every recession since the 1970s, the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope has risen, then declined. This time around, the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve has remained negatively-slope long than usual suggesting a larger than normal snapback. Into a hard landing.
Democrats in particular love hard landings because that green lights them for massive wasteful spending.
Confounded Interest - Anthony B. Sanders 
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