The Upside To Tariffs (Trump’s Tariffs Generated Over $25 Billion In Tariffs Under His Second Term)

The U.S. has already brought in nearly $73 billion in revenue from tariffs so far this year, compared to $77 billion in tariff revenue for the entirety of 2024. In Trump’s second term, tariff revenue is over $25 billion.

So much for the hysteria over a stock market crash and massive increase in inflation. Particularly “economists” who say this nonsense. Who are those guys?

Silver Cup? Silver, Money, Debt, And The Decline Of The US Dollar

We got silver?

Tavi Costa at Crescat Capital (founded by my former MBA student at University of Chicago Kevin Smith) produced this excellent chart of silver prices showing the cup and handle of silver prices.

The rise in silver prices corresponds with a deterioration of the US bond market. Look at Treasury futures courtesy of Bravos Research.

Of course, Washington DC’s insane spending has led to insane money printing by The Feral Reserve.

Everyone in Washington DC deserves a “Silver Cup of Failure” for uncontrolled government waste and spending and mismanagement by The Feral Reserve.

Mortgage Applications Increased 9.4 Percent From One Week Earlier While Purchase Index Decreased 13 Percent Compared With The Previous Week

Thank goodness “Statist Joe” Biden is gone. Kamala Harris is still lingering around the edges, while the mortgage and housing markets are still suffering from the Biden/Harris regulatory overreach.

Mortgage applications increased 9.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 4, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.77 percent, its lowest level in three months. After adjusting for the July 4th holiday, purchase applications increased to the highest level of activity since February 2023 and remained above year-ago levels.

Biden claims the foreign leaders have been calling him for advice. Here is one example.

Debt Slavery! As Of Q1 2025, GDP Growth Equalled Gov’t Debt (Unfortunately, Big Beautiful Bill Doesn’t Cut Enough Spending)

Finally, US government debt growth (YoY) was approximately equal to US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2025.

Unfortunately, the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is projected to add $3.9 trillion of debt. Unfortunately, there are insufficient spending cuts in the BBB. And the Senate just nixed kicking illegal immigrants off of Federal healthcare programs.

Unfortunately, GDP growth is only expected to be modest with debt growth once again rising faster than GDP growth. As Diane Feinstein once said, politicians are elected to spend money. This, of course, was a ridiculous statement embraced by spend-crazy Democrats and RINOs.

So, Congress has committed American taxpayers to debt slavery.

US Q2 Real GDP Remains At 2.9% (So Much For The Doom Forecast Of Tariffs Crashing The US Economy)

So much for the doom porn from the media about the US economy collapsing due to Trump’s tariffs! The US economy (real GDP) in Q2 is still growing at 2.9%.

Latest estimate: 2.9 percent — June 27, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from 3.4 percent on June 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 2.07 percentage points to 3.49 percentage points was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcasted GDP growth contribution of inventory investment from -0.42 percentage points to -2.22 percentage points.

Here is the data.

And with Democratic Socialist (aka, Communist) Zohran Mamdani winning the Democratic nomination for mayor, New York City will likely become the new Detroit.

The Short End: US Treasury Yield Curve Flattens Since Dec 31, 2024 (Pending US Home Sales Remain Low)

The US Treasury yield curve is flattening at the short-end (2-3 years) but remains unchanged at the long end (>= 20 years).

And pending US Home Sales remain low.

It will take a while to recover from Biden’s horrid economic follicies.

Keep On Printing? Home Prices Slow In April, But Still Up 2.64% YoY As Fed Continues To Print Money

The Fed continues printing money! And home prices continue to rise on year-over-year basis, but falling on a month-over-month basis.

Home prices in April tumbled 0.31% MoM (-0.02% exp) – the biggest MoM drop since Dec 2022.

But if we look at the national home prices via S&P Case-Shiller and YoY rather than MoM, home prices ROSE 2.64% YoY.

You can see the damage to homeownership caused by Covid and The Fed. The massive expansion of M2 Money in 2020 was followed shortly by rapid increases in home prices. This was followed by a normalization in Fed M2 Money printing. Consequently, home price growth has slowed.

Bits And Pieces? US Household Net Worth Fell By -0.93% In Q1 2025 As Bitcoin Falls Below 100k

The housing markets is in bits and pieces following The Fed’s fickle management of interest rates and Biden’s disastrous spending policies. U.S. household net worth fell by 0.93% in 1Q2025 … largest decline since 3Q2022, but not necessarily comparable to that quarter in terms of magnitude.

Bitcoin just broke below $100k.

What will The Fed? As I have said over and over again, The Fed needs to cut rates.

Covid, The Fed, Biden And The Impossibility Of Home Ownership In A Post-Biden World

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s favorite song: “No sugar tonight” for the mortgage market. The Fed provided plenty of sugar during the Covid crisis of 2020.

Mortgage rates grew under Biden from under 3% to nearly 8%, helping to choke off housing demand.

The good news? Median home price growth YoY has been negative since 2023 whilr average hourly earnings YoY has been positive and steady.

Please Jerome, lower rates!! We are in a ring of fire with high housing prices and high mortgage rates.

Simply Unaffordable? US Homebuilder Confidence Tumbles Near 13-Year-Lows Due To Post-Covid Home Price Gains (And Higher Mortgage Rates)

Thanks a lot Fed! Home prices rose dramatically after Covid as The Fed printed billions of dollar of currency (M2). Making housing unaffordable for much of America.

As a result of higher mortgage rates and higher home prices, homebuilder confidence is at a 13 year low (back to 2012).

Housing is simply unaffordable thanks to bad housing policies and The Fed.