The Brave New World? Job Finding Rate Collapses As Philly Fed Business Conditions Plummet

It is a brave new world as the US attempts an Argentina-like shift from an over-regulated, corrupt economy to a more free economy. While Argentina has Javier Milei, the US is stuck with greedy Democrats and RINOs and their bloated spending sinking any attempt to cut wasteful spending.

So as we transition from woefully corrupt and demented Joe Biden to Donald Trump, the labor market is … terrible. The job finding rate of unemployed workers has collapsed.

This occurred as the Philly Fed Business Outlook plummeted.

Here is Javier Milei of Argentina and The View’s image of a libertarian leader, Javier Bardem from No Country For Old Men.

Fed Drops Target Rate By 50 BPS, Assets Smashed, Gold Falls More Than 2% (Fed Predicts Fewer Rate Cuts In 2025)

As expected, Powell and The Fed dropped their target rate by 50 basis points yesterday, deflating some of the air in the asset markets, More rate cuts will come, but at a slower rate.

Gold got clobbered but has somewhat rebounded.

Bitcoin did likewise: dropping like a rock then bouncing back somwhat.

But gold and bitcoin/ethereum are down again.

The CBOE VIX volatility index exploded upwards.

Powell is looking old, like most of Congress and Biden.

Housing Starts Decreased To 1.289 Million In November, Down -10.2% YoY

Government didn’t build this country. The private sector did.

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,011,000; this is 6.4 percent above the revised October figure of 950,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 264,000.

And down -10.2% year-over-year.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,505,000. This is 6.1 percent above the revised October rate of 1,419,000, but is 0.2 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,508,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 972,000; this is 0.1 percent above the revised October figure of 971,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481,000 in November.

As we watch Biden and Democrats attempt to demolish the country as Biden leaves office. Let’s see how many criminals Biden will pardon on the way out … like the Jan 6th “select” committee of Adam Schiff, Adam Kinzinger, Liz Cheney, Bennie Thompson, etc.

All US Jobs “Created” In Q2 Were Fake, Payroll Jobs Were Actually Down 0.1%! (You Had His Word As A Biden)

Remember when President Joe Biden uttered “I give you my word as a Biden!”? Coming from perhaps the biggest liar in history who NEVER tells the truth!

Well, the latest in his long string of lies is that he is handing the strongest economy in modern times to Trump.

Instead of the 1.1% gain shown initially by the BLS, payroll jobs in the 50 states and the District of Columbia were actually down 0.1%!

BIG Bubbles? Biden/Democrats Spending Spree + FED = Massive Asset Bubbles = OVERVALUATION In Stock Market And Housing (Buffett Indicator, SP500 Mean Reversion, Shiller PE Ratio, CaseShiller To Gov Spending)

Apparently, the late Hawaiian crooner Don Ho foresaw Biden’s irresponsible spending spree. That is, BIG BUBBLES.

Let’s start with the Buffett Indicator (Warren, not Jimmy!). It indicates that the stock market is STRONGLY OVERVALUED.

The S&P 500 Mean Reversion Model also shows the stock market to be STRONGLY OVERVALUED.

How about the Shiller P/E Ratio? Also showing strong overvaluation.

House prices under Biden have exploded partly due to the outrageous Federal spending following COVID.

The Feral Reserve also had a hand in the housing bubble. While mortgage rates remain high (relative to the Trump years), The Fed’s balance sheet remains elevated.

To be sure, some Republicans were complicit in the spending spree. But mostly it was Democrats and the Biden/Harris Administration … which is still doling out millions.

All Aboard The Crazy Train! Biden’s Post COVID Economic “Miracle” Was Just Borrow And Spend (Large Corporations And Few Individuals Benefitted From COVID Spending)

All aboard the Biden/Pelos/Schumer crazy spending train!

Wage and salary income as a percentage of GDP has fallen from over 50% back in 1970 to 43.1% in 2022. And look at the post Covid decline! And the increase in M2 Money.

Meanwhile the US budget balance as a % of GDP has been plunging downwards in recent years.

Despite the slowing economy, pre-tax profits post Covid have SOARED!

Primarily due to reckless/wasteful Federal spending and FEDERAL DEBT that soared.

There you have it! The Biden/Harris economic “miracle” was simply Federal government malspending that benefitted large corporations and few people.

Joe Biden and his woefully corrupt son Hunter of laptop fame.

Fahrenheit 451! Sticky Core Inflation Still At 4% YoY (Fed Can’t Douse The Fire Caused By Too Much Government Spending)

We didn’t start the fire … The Fed and Biden/Harris did. And it is still burning.

October STICKY core inflation is still up 4% YoY (year-over-year)

Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) which pushed it up 3.3% YoY (not even close to the 2% mandate)…

Source: Bloomberg

There has not been a single monthly decrease in core consumer prices since Biden too office.

dddd

Between The Fed’s insane monetary policy and Biden/Harris insane fiscal policies, we are living in a world where Ray Bradbury’s novel Fahrenheit 451 becomes a reality. Instead of books burning, it is the US Dollar burning.

Rise! CMBS Continues To Struggle Under Biden/Harris (Delinquency Rate For Office Space Hits 10.4%)

CMBS delinquencies are on the rise.

The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The ascent is the fastest two-year increase on record, with rates climbing 8.8 percentage points since late 2022, significantly outrunning the 6.3-point rise seen during the financial crisis nearly 15 years ago.

The office real estate sector has been grappling with a severe downturn for several years now, but are accelerating recently as they are driven by persistently high vacancy rates and declining rents. Property values, particularly for older office buildings, have plummeted, with many losing 50 to 70 percent of their market value and in some cases becoming effectively worthless. Those conditions have left real estate portfolio managers and building owners unable to borrow, refinance or sell properties, contributing to rising delinquencies and foreclosures. (Mortgages become effectively delinquent when payments are missed beyond a standard 30-day grace period.)

On the CMBS front, there have been no upgrades in 2023 and 2024.

Efforts to convert office buildings into residential spaces are increasing but remain limited by structural and economic constraints. Many office towers are unsuitable for conversion due to their large floor plates or prohibitively high retrofitting costs which often exceed the cost of demolition and rebuilding. In 2024, 73 office-to-residential conversions were completed, with an additional 30 underway. Despite plans to increase the pace in 2025, the cumulative impact remains minimal, addressing just 7.9 percent of the 902 million square feet of vacant office space nationwide.

Milton Waddams personifies the disastrous progressive politics of Biden/Harris.

Crypt Keeper Jobs Report! November Household Jobs Report Shows -355k Jobs Lost, “Not In Labor Force” Increases By 368k

While Biden travels to Africa giving away money (and looking like the crypt keeper), the November jobs report was released.

The Establishment report showed a gain of 227k jobs. But the household survey showed a staggering loss of -355k jobs.

But not in labor force increased by 368k

Biden, the economic crypt keeper.

Like A Great White Shark! Bitcoin Breaches $100k, Gold Had A Tremendous Run Under Biden/Harris

Like a Great White Shark, Bitcoin has breached $100k!

Gold, a competitor to the US Dollar, is down a bit today, but has been rising with the prospect of Trump deregulating the hamstrung US economy. Gold rose under Biden/Harris (and McConnel/Schumer’s) gross fiscal mismanagemment.

Here is a picture of Bitcoin breaching the surface. And why it pays not to surf near seals or sea lions.