Category: Pension

House Prices Still On Fire! Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Grows At 4.2% YoY

Biden/Harris started the fire! And the house market is still burning.

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August (“August” is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices). August closing prices include some contracts signed in April, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

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Fire! Is still burning. The Fed tried to extinguish it and failed.

Surprise! Citi Economic Surprise Index Rises To Highest Level Since April On Crumbling Economy (10Y Treasury Yield Highest Since August)

The US economy is crumbing down under Biden/Harris. No, the economy doesn’t hurt so good.

The Citi Economic Surprise Index just rose to its highest level since April.

The 10Y Treasury yield just rose to its highest level since August.

US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunge In September (Down -0.7% YoY)

September! Or Get Down!

Housing starts dropped -0.7% YoY in September.

After surprising top the upside in August, Housing Starts and Building Permits disappointed in September, declining more than expected (-0.5% MoM and -2.9% MoM respectively)…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, multi-family permits plunged 10.8% MoM (and multi-family starts dropped for the second straight month). Single-family starts rose 2.7% MoM and permiots inchjed higher by 0.3% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations appear to have taken the excitement out of the building market…

Source: Bloomberg

Housing Completions also dropped (but the BLS thinks construction jobs continue to rise non-stop)…

Source: Bloomberg

So, The Fed cuts short-term rates… mortgage-rates rise… and builders slow their building plans… that’s not how it’s supposed to work!

Cottage Cheese? Mortgage Applications Down 17% Since Last Week, Purchase Applications Down -60% Under Biden/Harris (Housing Prices Up 34.2% Under Biden/Harris While Mortgage Rates Up 138.6%)

I would like to see Kamala Harris explain why mortgage purchase applications are down -60% under Biden/Harris Presidency. Other than a word salad answer. Or Cottage Cheese.

Mortgage applications decreased 17.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 17 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 26 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Housing prices are up 34.2% under Biden/Harris while mortgage rates are up 138.6%.

The Empire Strikes Out! Empire Manufacturing Index Crashed From +11.5 to -11.9, Lowest Since May (Yield Curve Remains Downward/Upward Sloping)

Perhaps Harris/Walz should adopt the Imperial March from Star Wars as their theme song. Between Biden/Harris uncontrolled immigration disaster helping to destroy New York City, Harris’ statement that she won’t do anything differntly from Biden/Harris is alarming.

The NY Empire survey crashed from +11.5 to -11.9 – the lowest since May. That is the biggest MoM drop since January…

A measure of current new orders plunged nearly 20 points to -10.2 after climbing a month earlier to the highest since April 2023.

The index of shipments decreased almost 21 points to minus 2.7.

The employment index, however, rebounded to 4.1 – the first expansion in a year – while a measure of hours worked also climbed.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s gauge of prices paid for materials increased to a six-month high of 29, while an index of prices received by state manufacturers also accelerated.

And with this awful news, the US Treasury yield curve remains downward/upward sloping. I call this the schizophenic yield curve.

Debate Question: How Will Harris Or Trump Deal With $650K Per Citizen In Unfunded Liabilites? Or National Debt Of $36 TRILLION ($271K Per Taxpayer)??

The Presidential and Vice Presidential debates thus far feature weak moderators asking lame questions. For example, there are still 97 hostages stll held by Hamas and what would the candidates do to get them released? (Hint: Trump/Vance would have sensible responses. Harris would just laugh and say she was raised in a middle class family and Walz would look like a deer in the headlights. Then we have national debt of $36 trillion, $271K per taxpayer.

But the hidden bomb that will never be discussed is unfunded liabilities (entitlements) such as Social Security and Medicare. Currently, unfunded liabilities are $219 TRILLION or $650K per citizen.

Of course, Biden/Harris have let the southern border wide open to criminals and uneducated Democrat voters who will voter for MORE entitlements.

So, when will the lame debate moderators ask HARD questions? And can Harris attempt to answer one hard question without laughing or falling back on lame “I was raised in a middle-class household.” etc.

US Dollar Eroded-20% Under Biden/Harris Ring Of Fire (Federal Reserve Was Co-conspirator In Rampant Inflation)

The US has fallen into a Ring of Fire under Biden/Harris horrid economic policiies.

But Biden/Harris had help from their deep state partner, The Federal Reserve.

The purchasung power of the US dollar has fallen by a whopping -20% under Biden/Harris. No wonder Harris is afraid to talk to reporters about her plans.

The children in Congress went on a spending spree as a result of COVID resulting in record inflation.

The deep state’s financing arm, The Federal Reserve, certainly helped create inflation by ramping up M2 Money supply around Covid.

Of course, children in Congress and Harris/Walz will use ANY excuse to tax and spend (and borrow/spend). The most recent inflation report had CPI growng at 2.5% YoY resulting in a further decline of purchasing power of the US dollar of -2.5% YoY.

Harris/Walz fully intend to keep shoveling TRILLIONS into green energy transformation and supporting illegal immigrants.

The Morning After (The Harris/Walz Adventure)? 2-Year Treasury Yield Falls With Fed Rate Cuts (Mortgage Rates Decline)

Like in the film The Poseidon Adventure, we are living in “The Morning After.”

When The Fed lowered their target rate by 50 basis points yesterday, we saw the 2 year Trreasury rate take a plunge.

With a declining 2-year Treasury yield, we see the 10Y-2Y yield curve going positive.

Of course, mortgage rates are falling with declines in the Fed Funds target rate.

Rates will continue to decline.

If HarrsWalz are elected in two months, we will see a repeat of The Poseidon Adventure. Call it the Harris/Walz Adventure!

Highway To Hell! US Interest To Hit $1.6 Trillion By Year End, Making It The Largest US Government Outlay (Interest Payments Crowding Out Social Safety Nets)

The US is on a highway to hell!

The US Federal government just hit a dubious landmark — $1.6 TRILLION in interest payments expected by year end. It is already at $1.2 TRILLION.

Biden/Harris’s spending spree (which Harris wants to continue).

Interest payments will crowd out other expenditures, like Social Security, Defense and Medicare.

Eternal deficits are not sustainable, especially since much of government spending rerpresents payoffs to political donors.

Interest on the federal debt this FY is equal to about half of all personal income taxes collected – we’re a nation of debt slaves.

Yes, under Biden/Harris, the US is on a HIGHWAY TO HELL.