Stagnation Nation! U.S. Housing Market Hits 30-Year Low in Activity (High Home Prices And High Mortgage Rates*)

Redfin’s Housing Turnover Report, Q1–Q3 2025

Just 2.8 homes out of every 1,000 changed owners in the first nine months of 2025—the lowest turnover rate in at least three decades. This marks a 38% plunge from the 2021 frenzy, when 44 per 1,000 homes sold, and is 44% below the pre-pandemic 2019 pace of 40 per 1,000.

Why the freeze? – Rate lock-in: Over 70% of homeowners are sitting on sub-5% mortgages and are reluctant to trade them for today’s rates exceeding 6%.

Sticker shock: Record prices combined with high borrowing costs have left many potential buyers on the sidelines. The result is a housing market that remains stagnant.

*Home prices are relatively high as are mortgage rates.

Someone will undoubtedly write me to look at Singapore. Yes, I know. Been there, done that. Or London.

In the US, the lowest turnover rates are in Democrat strongholds New York and California.

Mortgage Demand Decreased 1.9 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 2 Percent, Refinance Index Decreased 3 Percent)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 31, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 151 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage originations are still strong for the 760+ bucket.

Let’s see how California’s Prop 50 (Gavin Newsom’s attempt to give Democrats a majority in the US House of Representatives) works?

𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝟳.𝟭%, Office Delinquencies Soar To 11.8% (CMBS Excess Returns Are Dwindling)

𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝟳.𝟭%.🚨

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Hits Record 11.8%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Meltdown. (Wolfstreet)

CMBS excess returns are dwindling.

How will New York City commercial real estate returns perform if Madami wins the NYC Mayoral election?

US Mortgage Demand Rose 7.1% With Mortgage Rates Declining (Purchase Demand Rose 4% While Refi Demand Rose 9% From Preceding Week)

It came out of The Fed.

Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.30 percent from 6.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Yesterday, The Fed lowered their target rate by 25 basis points. And the 30-year conforming rate index fell by 0.037 basis points to 6.155%.

On the government shutdown side, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell at The Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC.

Existing Home Sales Print At 4.06 Million Units In September, Commercial Real Estate Still Lower Than Before Covid 19 Outbreak In 2020

September US home sales printed at 4.06 million units.

The US still hasn’t recovered from the Covid 19 outbreak of 2020 and the Fed’s response to Covid.

On the commercial real estate side, CRE prices remain below Covid 19 outbreak levels.

Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers By More Than 500,000 (Largest Gap Ever Recorded)

The US housing market is in a pickle. Home sellers now outnumber buyers by more than 500,000, the largest gap ever recorded.

Drop In Mortgage Rates Fueling Mortgage Demand (Purchase Demand Nearing 2022 Levels)

The September drop in mortgage rates is sparking the biggest boom in refinancings since the pandemic. Mortgage-refinancing applications have surged above the decade average, despite that period including the record-breaking refi boom of 2020-21 when rates fell to all-time lows. Purchase-loan demand has also rebounded to its best for this time of year since 2022, yet remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

Purchase demand (applications) nearing 2022 levels.

While not mortgage-related, gold is soaring!!

Thanks to Bloomberg’s Erica Adelberg for her amazing charts.

Mortgage Demand Decreased 4.7 Percent From One Week Earlier (Purchase Index Decreased 1 Percent)

Feelin’ stronger for the most part.

Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications.

Mortgage demand dwindled since Covid and Biden/Powell and hasn’t recovered.

Shutdown! Mortgage Demand Falls 12.7% From Previous Week (Purchase Index Fell 2%, Refi Index Fell 21% As Mortgage Rates Rose)

Shutdown!

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with the view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived.

Yes, the Federal government has shut down.

Zowie! Q3 2025 Real GDP At 3.9% (Driven By Existing Home Sales)

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!!

Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — September 26, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points.