Shutdown! Mortgage Demand Falls 12.7% From Previous Week (Purchase Index Fell 2%, Refi Index Fell 21% As Mortgage Rates Rose)

Shutdown!

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with the view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived.

Yes, the Federal government has shut down.

Zowie! Q3 2025 Real GDP At 3.9% (Driven By Existing Home Sales)

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!!

Latest estimate: 3.9 percent — September 26, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points.

Existing home sales helped drive higher GDP growth.

Zowie! The US economy is red hot!

Buyers’ Jubilee? 35.2% More Home Sellers Than Buyers In U.S. Housing Market In August

August represents a massive switch from 3 years ago when there were nearly 40% more home buyers and sellers in the US housing market. There are now 35.2% MORE home sellers than buyers!

Funky Cold Jerome! US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Rises/Steepens, Particularly At The 10-year Tenor (As Of Yesterday, The 30-year Mortgage Rate FELL To 6.17%)

It’s Friday and the US Treasury yield curve is rising/steepening at the 10-year tenor.

As of yesterday, the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.17%

Thanks in part to Funky Cold Jerome!

Fed Post-mortem: 10Y Treasury Yield Rises To 4.13%, 30Y Mortgage Rate Falls To 6.5%, US Dollar Falls

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the God of Hellfire! We should always wait a day to digest Fed’s annoucements since they often make little sense. For example, yesterday the 10Y yield fell below 4% after The Fed’s announcement … then promplty rose above 4% again. And today, the US Treasury 10Y yield rose to 4.1276%

The 30Y US mortgage rate fell to 6.493%.

How about the US Dollar? Similar to the US 10Y yield, volatility reigned following Powell’s muddled message.

Powell rarely is straightforward and never puts cash on the barrelhead.

US Inflation Headline CPI Rose 0.4% MoM, 2.9% YoY In August (Shelter UP 3.6% YoY)

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY in August.

Shelter (housing) is up 3.6% YoY. Gimme (expensive) shelter!

Of course, Federal government spending is the source of inflation. Notice the lag between Covid spending and resulting inflation.

So much for Trump Tariffs causing runaway inflation.

Prayers for Charlie Kirk and his family. I hope they catch the sick SOB that assassinated Charlie.

BIGGEST Negative Payroll Revision On Record! March 2025 Revised Downward By 911k Jobs (Worse Than Last Biden Revision Of Over 600k Jobs)

Yes, the jobs revision for March 2025 is down by 911k jobs topping the last Biden revision of over 600k.

The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000 (-0.6 percent), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have an absolute average of 0.2 percent of total nonfarm employment. In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, CES employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). These counts are derived primarily from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file with state workforce agencies.

Here is the breakdown:

Wow. Every month during Biden’s last year in his reign of error was a negative revision.

Biden, the inept bozo.

30Y Mortgage Rates Decline To 6.64% (Repeat Of 1978-1981?)

The good news? The US 30-year mortgage rate fell slightly to 6.64%.

The bad news? It seems to be a milder repeat of the Ford/Carter years of the late 1970s/early 1980s. Rising 10-year Treasury yields and 30-year mortgage rates during the Ford/Carter years … and early Reagan years. The difference? The Federal Reserve is fundamentally different today than previously. With Bernanke/Yellen, The Fed became more “activist” (like Obama/Biden-appoointed District Judges). Powell is returning to the Yellen model of Fed activism … not doing much.

Now the market awaits a rate cut from The Fed at the next FOMC meeting. But 30-year mortgage rates are most closely related to the 10-year Treasury yield than the short-term Fed Funds rate. Theoretically, The Fed could cut their target rate by 25 basis points and mortgage rates could be uneffected. Or even rise.

Here is a video of Fed Chair Jerome Powell trying to lower mortgage rates.

What about the mortgage rates, Fawlty?

US Q3 GDP Forecast Falls To 3% From 3.5% On Decline In Equipment Investment (CMBS Office Delinquency Hits All-time High!)

US Q3 GDP fell slightly in Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow latest revision to 3.0% from 3.5% last week.

The source of the decline in GDP? Equipment investment fell to 8.9.

From 11.7. Hard to sustain high levels of equipment investment.

On a related note, office CMBS just hit all-time high. Yes, higher than the financial crisis!!

Mortgage Applications Decline 1.2 Percent From Previous Week (Purchase Index Decreased 6 Percent, Refinance Index Increased 1 Percent)

Bad, bad Jerome Powell.

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 29, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to its lowest level since April to 6.64 percent. However, that was not enough to spark more application activity. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.64 percent from 6.69 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

But don’t get your hopes up about The Fed saving the housing market.