US Existing Home Sales Bounced In February +1.7 MoM, But Down -1.45% YoY (Inventory Still Low)

Existing home sales actually surprised to the upside, rising 1.7% MoM in February. Perhaps even more notably, January’s 8.4% MoM plunge was revised up to a slightly less crazy 5.9% MoM drop.

With the beat and upward revision, existing home sales were down just 1.45% YoY but SAAR topped 4mm (4.09mm) once again.

On the bright side, with mortgage rates at their lowest since 2022, existing home sales look set to continue to improve (unless Trump’s war triggers more panic in rates).

The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 0.3% from a year earlier — one of the smallest advances since the pandemic housing frenzy — to $398,000 last month.

The inventory of previously owned homes increased 4.9% from a year ago to 1.29 million — the most for any February since 2020.

Mortgage rates? Up yesterday, but near lowest since 2023.

US Home Relistings Hit Record High (Delistings Soared In 2025 After Sellers Outnumbered Buyers)

Housing market woes continue. All the day and all the night.

Around 45,000 homes that were delisted in 2025 were back on the market in January – marking the highest relisting numbers since 2016 when Redfin began tracking.

Delistings soared in 2025 after sellers began to outnumber buyers, and decided to take their homes off the market to take another bite at the apple this spring. Overall delistings hit a record high of 112,788 in December, while relistings this year represented 3.6% of all homes on the market.

Supply gains have been concentrated in the South and West, particularly among homes priced under $500,000. While the Northeast and Midwest have seen some growth, they are still lagging behind the other regions.

As of February, active listings climbed by 7.9 percent year over year, reaching 914,860 homes across the nation for sale. A little more than 7 percent of those listings resulted in contract cancellations—down slightly from the same time in 2025.

An analysis of the country’s 50 largest markets showed sharp increases in inventory in Seattle, with a 38.5 percent hike, as well as Louisville, Kentucky, 27.3 percent higher, and San Jose, with nearly 25 percent more homes on the market.

On the other side, Hartford, Connecticut, experienced the deepest drop in inventory at over 82 percent, as well as Providence, Rhode Island, at 61.1 percent.

Overall, homes spent a median of 70 days on the market in February, four days longer than a year earlier.

Global Uncertainty Hits An ALL-TIME HIGH! Higher Than Covid, 2008 Financial Crisis, Dot-com Crash COMBINED

Global uncertainty hits an ALL-TIME HIGH.

Higher than Covid, the 2008 financial crisis, and the dot-com crash COMBINED.

You know what that means!

Typical Homeowner Stays In Home For 12 Years, Up From 6.5 Years In 2006 (Average Effective Mortgage Life Is Only 5-7 Years)

People are staying in their homes longer now than in 2006. 12 years now versus 6.5 years in 2006.

The average effective mortgage life is 5-7 years,

12 years in the same home makes housing policy more difficult to implement.

Simply Unaffordable! FHA Lower Credit Score Borrowers (0-619) Suffer Escalating Mortgage Delinquency Rates

We are seeing the aftermath of the Federal government’s fiscal response to the Covid outbreak of 2020. Home prices exploded following The Federal government’s spending spree. The end result? US housing is simply unaffordable for millions of households.

Not really surprising given the soaring home prices following the Covid Federal spending spree.

Home Price Adjustment! Average Hourly Earnings YoY ABOVE Home Price Growth YoY (Home Price Growth Exploded Following Federal Governments’ Covid-related Spending Splurge)

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain (YoY) for December 2025, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month. Average hourly earnings now at 3.73% YoY, higher than home price growth.

Home price growth exploded following The Federal governments’ Covid-related spending splurge.

Geographic divergence widened sharply: Chicago and New York led all markets with gains above 5%, while Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami posted the steepest declines among markets that finished the year in negative territory.

Inflation cooled significantly under Trump, but The Fed keeps printing M2!

Sure, Hillary, sure.

Inflation Power! US Core PCE Jumps On Durable Goods Jumps 2.051% (PCE Up 0.4% In December, M2 Up 4.6% YoY)

I called this inflation power!

Underlying U.S. inflation increased more than expected in December, and signs are pointing to a further acceleration in January, which would strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before June.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.4% after an unrevised 0.2% gain in November, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. In the 12 months through December, core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% after increasing 2.8% in November.

The PCE price index increased 0.4% in December after rising 0.2% in November. PCE inflation increased 2.9% year-on-year after gaining 2.8% in November.

But in terms of contributions to the 0.4% figure is that durable goods rose 2.051%.

The Fed has been printing money (M2) like there is no tomorrow. With M2 growing at 4.6% YoY in December.

Gimme (Cheaper) Shelter! US Core CPI Falls To Slowest In 4 Years (Real Wage Growth Rises As Rent CPI Rose Only 0.2% In January)

Gimme (cheaper) shelter!

Rate-cut expectations have surged (dovishly) higher this week (along with tumbling Treasury yields) amid a mixed macro picture (Labor market ‘good’, Retail sales bad, Housing ugly).

Today could change all that as CPI for January prints with risk skewed to the upside. January brings annual resets and they tend to surprise on the high side.

Despite the ‘hot’ whisper numbers (and 4 previous Januarys in a row of upside surprises), headline consumer price inflation came in cooler than expected in January (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% expected). That pulled the headline CPI down dramatically from +2.7% to +2.4% – near the lowest in 4 years.

Core CPI printed +0.3% MoM (in line with expectations), lowering the YoY change in core prices to +2.5% – the lowest since March 2021.

The Shelter index rose 0.2% in January and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.2% over the month as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose 0.1 percent. These increases were partially offset by the index for energy, which fell 1.5% in January.

January saw real average weekly earnings rise 1.9% YoY – its highest since March 2021…

US Unexpectedly Adds 130K Jobs In January, Most Since Dec 2024 (Growing Private Sector Jobs, Declining Government Jobs)

In January the US added 130K jobs, double the 65K median estimate and up from a downward revised December print of 48K (vs 50K previously). This was also the highest monthly jobs increase since December 2024.

Government jobs fell by -42k. Furthering the trend for growing private sector employment and declining government employment.

Compared to Jan 2025, we see the growth in private sector employment and decline in government jobs.

The jobs report comes with the largest jobs revision since 2009/2010.

Now for the bad news, As my OSU/Chicago/GMU know, I prefer NON seasonally adjusted data when at all reasonable. While Seasonally adjusted jobs added SEASONALLY ADJUSTED was +130K, NOT seasonally adjusted jobs added was -2.649 Million.

Happy birthday to Tina Louis (Ginger from Gilligan’s Island) who turned 92 today.

Housing Bubble Part Deux! Home Price To Median Household Income Now Higher Than During Catestrophic Home Price Bubble Of 2005-2009 (Job Losses Primarily Women)

Yikes! The ratio of US Home Prices to US Median Household Income is now higher than the ratio during the catestrophic housing bubble during the latter half of the 2000s.

Here is a chart of home prices and median household incone,

The labor market is truly screwed-up. The December jobs report reveals that women account for nearly all labor force losses.