US Purchase Mortgage Demand Increased 3% From Previous Week (Pulte’s 50Y And Layaway Mortgages??)

The US mortgage market is “livin’ on a prayer.” As a result, former homebuilder and current FHFA Director Bill Pulter has suggested 2 mortgage products to make US homes more “affordable”, adding to the legacy of stupid government policies to increase homeownership.

But first, current mortgage demand. Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 7, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 31 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 147 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Now on to Pulte’s stupid mortgage proposals.

Pulte Doubles Down After 50-Year Backlash, Proposes “Layaway Mortgage”

The 50-year mortgage is a stupid idea. True, it can reduce the monthly mortgage payment by several hundred dollars. But it extends the life of the mortgage from 30 to 50 years, keeping the outstanding mortgage balance elevated for longer, exposing the lender (or mortgage owner) to greater losses in the case of default. Not surprising since the duration risk of a 50-year mortgage is greater than on a 30-year mortgage. Who is going to hold these mortgages??

So, Pulte hearing that the mortgage market thinks this is a stupid idea, introduced another stupid mortgage idea: the “layaway mortgage” where buyers make payments for 5-10 years before they’re allowed to move into the home. This is a variation of “rent to own.”

Under Pulte’s Layaway Mortgage program:

▪️ Buyers select a home and begin making monthly payments immediately
▪️ They continue paying for 5-10 years (the “layaway period”)
▪️ During this time, they cannot live in the home, modify it, or even visit without an appointment
▪️ After the layaway period ends, buyers can move in and begin their 40-year mortgage
▪️ If they miss a payment during layaway, they forfeit everything and the home goes back on the market.

So, in other word, a 50-year mortgage (40+10 layaway).

Note: Japan used to offer 100-year mortgages during their housing bubble, but now 35-year mortgages are more common.

Is The Mortgage Market Back?Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey (+10 Percent) While Purchase Applications Increased (+4 Percent)

The mortgage market is back in town!

Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier.

The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week and was 33 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Prepays are down significantly since 2021 which marks the beginning of The Fed starting to raise rates.

Aggregate prepayments for agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) fell 12% in January, with housing seasonals declining and mortgage rates lingering near 7%. MBS turnover speeds have bounced back considerably relative to 2023 lows, though high rates may be starting to take a toll. Even at current elevated rates, GNMA streamline refinancings are picking up as loans issued in spring of 2024 pass out of the refi lockout period.

Not Big Mac! Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December By Up 4.0% YoY (Austin Tx Is Down -12.7% From Peak)

No, Freddie Mac is not a new cheeseburger from McDonald’s. Freddie Mac is a government sponsored enterprised (GSE) that purchases residential mortgages from lenders and assists in the bundling of mortgages into mortgage-backed securities (MBS). They also monitor home prices.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in December. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in December, up from up 3.9% YoY in November. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023.

But let’s look at the dark side of home prices, which is price declines. Led by Communist enclaved Austin Texas, down -12.7% from peak. The next six cities are all in Florida.

I was watching Varney and Company on Fox Business and it dawned on me that Jonathan Hoenig from Capitalist Pig needs to lay off the caffeine!

Maybe Freddie Mac should partner with McDonald’s. After all, clumsy shooter Angel Reese from WNBA’s Chicago Sky just signed with McDonald’s.

My Mortgage Market Was Gone! Mortgage Purchase Applications Rise 7% Since Previous Week, But Refi Applications Fall 3%

As The Pretenders sang, “My City Was Gone.” That song was about Akron, Ohio. But it applies to the US Mortgage Market under Biden/Harris. The question is whether Trump’s deregulation plans can return to its former glory.

Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The Pretenders’ lead singer Chrissie Hynde likely would have made a better Federal Reserve Chair and Treasury Secretary than Janet Yellen.

Off To A Bad Start! Mortgage Purchase Applications Declined 7% Since Last Week, Down 15% Since Same Week Last Year

Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the New Year’s holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Purchase application activity is up about 2% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 15% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Then we have this diddy from The Epoch Times where a mortgage company allegedly provided a loan to a household that had 33 debts in collection. Hey, I thought under Senator Elizabeth Warren’s brainchild these reckless lending practices were over!

One will be gone on January 20 and I wish the other one would be gone too.

Mortgage Applications Decreased 21.9% From Two Weeks Earlier, Purchase Applications Down 48% From Two Weeks Earlier

Well, its that time of year again. Mortgage applications drop to their lowest levels after Christmas until New Years Eve. Then mortgage applications pick up in the new year.

Mortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 27, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the Christmas holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 21.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 55 percent compared with two weeks ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with two weeks ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 48 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 36 percent from two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 62 percent from two weeks ago and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Rise! CMBS Continues To Struggle Under Biden/Harris (Delinquency Rate For Office Space Hits 10.4%)

CMBS delinquencies are on the rise.

The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The ascent is the fastest two-year increase on record, with rates climbing 8.8 percentage points since late 2022, significantly outrunning the 6.3-point rise seen during the financial crisis nearly 15 years ago.

The office real estate sector has been grappling with a severe downturn for several years now, but are accelerating recently as they are driven by persistently high vacancy rates and declining rents. Property values, particularly for older office buildings, have plummeted, with many losing 50 to 70 percent of their market value and in some cases becoming effectively worthless. Those conditions have left real estate portfolio managers and building owners unable to borrow, refinance or sell properties, contributing to rising delinquencies and foreclosures. (Mortgages become effectively delinquent when payments are missed beyond a standard 30-day grace period.)

On the CMBS front, there have been no upgrades in 2023 and 2024.

Efforts to convert office buildings into residential spaces are increasing but remain limited by structural and economic constraints. Many office towers are unsuitable for conversion due to their large floor plates or prohibitively high retrofitting costs which often exceed the cost of demolition and rebuilding. In 2024, 73 office-to-residential conversions were completed, with an additional 30 underway. Despite plans to increase the pace in 2025, the cumulative impact remains minimal, addressing just 7.9 percent of the 902 million square feet of vacant office space nationwide.

Milton Waddams personifies the disastrous progressive politics of Biden/Harris.

Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise 3.9% YoY In September (Only NYC And Cleveland Top 7% YoY)

Rolling into Cleveland to the lake.

NEW YORK, NOVEMBER 26, 2024: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the
September 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S.
home prices recorded a 3.9% annual gain in September 2024, a slight deceleration from the previous annual gains in 2024.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for September, down from a 4.3% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.2%, down from a 6.0% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.6%, dropping from a 5.2% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.5% increase in September, followed by Cleveland and Chicago with annual increases of 7.1% and 6.9%, respectively. Denver posted the smallest year-over-year growth with 0.2%.

Table 2 below summarizes the results for September 2024. Cleveland and New York top 7% YoY.

Slow Down? Existing Home Sales Rise YoY For First Time Since July 2021 (Near 2010 Levels, So Barely Rising)

Its a slow down in the housing market.

Existing Home Sales were expected to rebound modestly in October (+2.9% MoM) after dropping for 6 of the last 7 months to the lowest levels since 2010, and they did. Sales rose 3.4% MoM (a beat) but thanks to a downward revision for September from -1.0% to -1.3% MoM. What is most shocking about the shift is that it pushed the YoY change for existing home sales positive (+2.9% YoY) for the first time since July 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

…but in context, that shift up to 3.96mm SAAR homes sold is nothing…

Source: Bloomberg

High borrowing costs have led to a shortage of previously owned homes on the market, discouraging many would-be home sellers from listing their properties for sale and having to part with their current low financing costs.

“Additional job gains and continued economic growth appear assured, resulting in growing housing demand,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.

“While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”

Last month, the inventory of available homes edged up 0.7% to 1.37 million, continuing to trend higher although well below pre-pandemic levels.

Despite the weakness in sales, tight inventory is keeping prices elevated, yielding one of the least affordable housing markets on record. The median sale price last month increased 4% from a year earlier to $407,200, the highest ever for any October, the NAR figures show.

Contract signings rose in all four US regions, led by a 6.7% jump in the Midwest.

Sales of single-family homes increased 3.5% in October; purchases of condominiums and co-ops were up 2.7%

Finally, while that’s all very exciting – a scintilla of growth off almost record lows – the fecal matter is about to strike the rotating object as rising mortgage rates lagged impact threatens…

Source: Bloomberg

In October, 59% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month, compared with 57% in September, and 19% sold above the list price. Properties remained on the market for 29 days on average, compared with 28 days in the previous month. First-time buyers made up 27% of purchases, still historically low.

Already Gone! Mortgage Applications Rise Since Last Week, But Mortgage Purchase Applications Down -60% Under Biden/Harris

Fortunately, the Biden/Harris administration is winding down. On the mortgage side, the mortgage market is already gone under Biden/Harris where mortgage purchase applications are down a whopping 60%.

Mortgage applications increased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 15, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. And down -60% under Biden/Harris.

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Slowing economy, rising rates, too expensive housing. Not a good sign for the mortgage market.